rogerclee, on Mar 2 2009, 06:46 PM, said:
Adam, I don't know if this will sway your opinion, but when we are 55(12), these are the probabilities that our longest fit is:
7 cards - 0.105
8 cards - 0.428
9 cards - 0.337
10 cards - 0.110
11 cards - 0.018
Of course some of these are minor suit fits, but mostly these numbers will occur because of a major suit fit. From these numbers, I would say that your fears of a misfit might be misplaced.
As I have pointed out many times before, the goal is to maximize my expected score.
I submit that on the 10% of hands where we have no fit, my expected score from opening will be
very bad. There essentially are no good cases. We will always be overbid, we may get doubled in a partial, or bid a no-play game or slam.
Now, certainly the odds favor a fit, and if my results were to become
much better on the fitting hands by opening, then it would be right to open. But I'm not convinced that the improvement from opening when there is a fit is all that substantial -- very frequently we will end up in the same contract getting the same result, and in fact sometimes we find a better fit (give partner a hand with 2-3 in the majors and opening 1
♠ might get us to 2
♠ instead of 2
♥) or avoid doubling a making contract (initial pass limits my hand).
Adam W. Meyerson
a.k.a. Appeal Without Merit