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Would you open this Sanity check

#1 User is offline   dcvetkov 

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Posted 2009-March-02, 13:13




I am just wondering how many of you consider NOT to open this hand or something like " I pass, what is the problem"?

White vs Red, IMPS , first seat
[COLOR=blue] aka Dimitar
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#2 User is offline   jdonn 

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Posted 2009-March-02, 13:15

I'll save everyone else the trouble of replying. If you are very old or named awm you pass, otherwise you open.
Please let me know about any questions or interest or bug reports about GIB.
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#3 User is offline   Walddk 

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Posted 2009-March-02, 13:16

Count me in as an opener, a clear opener even. Better than many 14-15 counts.

Roland
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#4 User is offline   rogerclee 

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Posted 2009-March-02, 13:16

I bet even awm would open this hand.
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#5 User is offline   skjaeran 

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Posted 2009-March-02, 13:21

Clear opener. 6-loser hand, 10 hcp (and both majors).
I'll die of old age long before I pass hands like this....
Kind regards,
Harald
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#6 User is offline   ASkolnick 

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Posted 2009-March-02, 13:31

Follows the Rule of 22 (Rule of 20 by Bergen plus 2 QT), so I open as well.
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#7 User is offline   neilkaz 

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Posted 2009-March-02, 13:44

If PD passes this, I am calling the nurse over to check PD for a pulse !
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#8 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2009-March-02, 13:54

I wouldn't open 1 at second position vulnerable. any other position or vulnerability I open.
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#9 User is offline   inquiry 

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Posted 2009-March-02, 16:07

OPEN.... look up ZAR Points on the internet.
--Ben--

#10 User is offline   awm 

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Posted 2009-March-02, 17:00

I'd pass, assuming those x are really small cards.

Give me some spots and I open. :)

My general experience with these hands is that they are great if partner has a major suit fit and really awful if partner is 2-2 or 1-2 in the majors. If I start with pass I can almost always come in later, typically at a fairly low level and with a call that actually shows both majors and leaves partner well placed to know what's going on. If I open 1 and partner actually has the "no major fit" hand then I'm totally hosed, often getting to a no-play game or being doubled for a number in a partial.

Note that even ZAR points admit this, with substantial upgrades for super-fit and downgrades for no fit. The problem is that by the time I'm sure there is no fit (having bid both my suits and possibly rebid hearts), we are generally in a game-forcing auction and there's not much I can do about it.
Adam W. Meyerson
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#11 User is offline   mtvesuvius 

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Posted 2009-March-02, 17:14

If you pass this hand, you are either:

Dropped a card on the floor
Have No Bidding Box
Cannot Speak
Are over the age of 85
Are AWM
Dead


I am none of these... I open :)
Yay for the "Ignored Users" feature!
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#12 User is offline   hanp 

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Posted 2009-March-02, 17:17

1S.
and the result can be plotted on a graph.
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#13 User is offline   peachy 

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Posted 2009-March-02, 17:25

Open 1S. Any seat, any vul.
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#14 User is offline   rogerclee 

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Posted 2009-March-02, 17:46

Adam, I don't know if this will sway your opinion, but when we are 55(12), these are the probabilities that our longest fit is:

7 cards - 0.105
8 cards - 0.428
9 cards - 0.337
10 cards - 0.110
11 cards - 0.018

Of course some of these are minor suit fits, but mostly these numbers will occur because of a major suit fit. From these numbers, I would say that your fears of a misfit might be misplaced.
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#15 User is offline   hrothgar 

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Posted 2009-March-02, 17:58

This depends completely on partnership agreement

I prefer playing relatively sound opening playing 2/1.
I would pass this hand in regular partnerships...
Alderaan delenda est
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#16 User is offline   Phil 

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Posted 2009-March-02, 18:15

I've seen Fred pass these kind of hands. File under: I'll describe my hand later with one bid.

I'll open 1.
Hi y'all!

Winner - BBO Challenge bracket #6 - February, 2017.
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#17 User is offline   mike777 

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Posted 2009-March-02, 18:50

Excellent opening bid poll/

No surprise Al Roth is dead. Long live the King.
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#18 User is offline   blackshoe 

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Posted 2009-March-02, 18:59

I had this hand today. :P I opened 1. We got a bad board. If it comes up tomorrow, I'll open it 1 again.
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As for tv, screw it. You aren't missing anything. -- Ken Berg
I have come to realise it is futile to expect or hope a regular club game will be run in accordance with the laws. -- Jillybean
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#19 User is offline   awm 

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Posted 2009-March-02, 19:41

rogerclee, on Mar 2 2009, 06:46 PM, said:

Adam, I don't know if this will sway your opinion, but when we are 55(12), these are the probabilities that our longest fit is:

7 cards - 0.105
8 cards - 0.428
9 cards - 0.337
10 cards - 0.110
11 cards - 0.018

Of course some of these are minor suit fits, but mostly these numbers will occur because of a major suit fit. From these numbers, I would say that your fears of a misfit might be misplaced.

As I have pointed out many times before, the goal is to maximize my expected score.

I submit that on the 10% of hands where we have no fit, my expected score from opening will be very bad. There essentially are no good cases. We will always be overbid, we may get doubled in a partial, or bid a no-play game or slam.

Now, certainly the odds favor a fit, and if my results were to become much better on the fitting hands by opening, then it would be right to open. But I'm not convinced that the improvement from opening when there is a fit is all that substantial -- very frequently we will end up in the same contract getting the same result, and in fact sometimes we find a better fit (give partner a hand with 2-3 in the majors and opening 1 might get us to 2 instead of 2) or avoid doubling a making contract (initial pass limits my hand).
Adam W. Meyerson
a.k.a. Appeal Without Merit
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#20 User is offline   the hog 

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Posted 2009-March-02, 20:23

If I played 2 suited openings, of course, this is a 100% opening bid. If I played a light opening system, of course this is an opening. Playing 2/1 I think opening this is not a good idea. Agree with Adam's post above.
"The King of Hearts a broadsword bears, the Queen of Hearts a rose." W. H. Auden.
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