[Califdude]

Lately, I've been applying the Rule of 15 to open in the 3rd seat not vulnerable, and out of about 6 events, haven't resulted in a bad board, and have a couple of very good boards as a result. Can you discuss the reasons why this rule is considered inapplicable to opening in the 3rd seat? Thanks.

[helene_t]

It's fine to use the rule in 3rd seat. But in addition you should also open some hands that you wouldn't open in 4th seat:

AKJx-xxx-xx-Jxxx

does not satisfy the rule of 15, and in 4th seat it is probably a pass. In third seat it is good tactic to open 1♠ (yes, even if you play 5-card majors) to suggest a lead and to obstruct the opponents' auction.

[Wackojack]

Whats the rule of 15?

[NickRW]

Its the notion that you should open borderline hands in 4th seat when your spades+hcp >= 15.

When you have the opportunity to pass the board out for a zero score you shouldn't really open unless your chance of a plus is at least as good as 50/50. The number of spades in your hand is a factor in this as the opps are unlikely to have a fit there if you have plenty of them - thus, if they compete it will likely be they who are forced to the 3 level going one down.

The older version of the rule was rule of 14 - though people tended not to open light then - so partner might be expected, on average, to have a little more if your 1st and 2nd seat openers are sound.

People have done sims on this - rule of 15 is certainly sound in 4th seat - some day I'll do one to test rule of 14.

Nick

[awm]

It's worth asking whether you are getting good results when you open, good results when you pass, or both.

I suspect that most would open "rule of 15" hands in third seat, but would also open additional hands that would not satisfy this rule (for example ♠xxx ♥AKJxx ♦xx ♣xxx).

In any case, the "rule of 15" is to add your high card points to your number of spades and open if they total at least 15. Generally this rule is applied in fourth chair only, to hands which you would not open in first chair. The point is supposed to be that if you have long spades you can usually win the partscore battle whereas if you have not-very-many-spades the opponents may bid spades over your partial and make it. However, some recent work with bridge browser and GIB has indicated that the "rule of 15" probably has little technical merit.

[NickRW]

awm, on Nov 19 2008, 12:18 AM, said:

However, some recent work with bridge browser and GIB has indicated that the "rule of 15" probably has little technical merit.

Really. I'm sure I saw a thread on these forums somewhere, started by Ben I think, that showed rule of 15 was really quite sound. Where are you getting that info from?

Nick

[awm]

NickRW, on Nov 18 2008, 07:21 PM, said:

awm, on Nov 19 2008, 12:18 AM, said:

However, some recent work with bridge browser and GIB has indicated that the "rule of 15" probably has little technical merit.

Really. I'm sure I saw a thread on these forums somewhere, started by Ben I think, that showed rule of 15 was really quite sound. Where are you getting that info from?

Nick

Same thread, same forums. Indication was that spade length had little correlation with how good the score was. It did not indicate that "opening rule of 15 hands is bad" -- more that there is nothing special that happens at "rule of 15" and that opening hands with comparable shape/values but fewer spades did about as well.

[NickRW]

I'll look it up again...

Nick

[Lobowolf]

Is this some attempt to cut Pearson out of royalties?

[jdonn]

Lobowolf, on Nov 18 2008, 07:29 PM, said:

Is this some attempt to cut Pearson out of royalties?

I'm not sure he wants the credit. It's like in Office Space when they talk about the guy who invented the pet rock. "The guy made a million dollars!"

[NickRW]

For those that want to read the old thread, it is here:

http://forums.bridge...topic=13703&hl=

I think probably for any beginner trying to read this stuff, the main conclusion should be that if you would open normally, then open, regardless of rule of 15 (or 14). But the rule might be of use for some very borderline cases.

Nick

[P_Marlowe]

Califdude, on Nov 18 2008, 06:50 PM, said:

Lately, I've been applying the Rule of 15 to open in the 3rd seat not vulnerable, and out of about 6 events, haven't resulted in a bad board, and have a couple of very good boards as a result. Can you discuss the reasons why this rule is considered inapplicable to opening in the 3rd seat? Thanks.

The question is, for what was the rule of 15 developed?

It was developd for the 4th seat to decide, if you will be better of,
if you open a hand, or if you pass a given hand out.
If you open, you risk, that the opponents will out bid you with a
major, and if the points are 20-20 make a partial in major,
which would mean, you go minus instead of getting 0,which you
would have gotten, if you would have passed the hand out.

In 3rd seat, you dont know, that if you pass, the player in 4th
seat will pass as well.
Usually if you have a weak hand, the player in 4th seat will have
the strongest hand, hence lots of player like to make life difficult
for the guy in the 4th position by going in with super light values.
A valid tactic.

With kind regards
Marlowe

[dake50]

Similar to helene_T, opening in 3-seat has a different aim. Fourth seat deviates if plus likely >50%. Conversely 3-seat has a MUCH higher need/ want to obstruct. After P <P> ?? less than 13hcp 3-seat EXPECTS 4-seat to average 15hcp!

[Califdude]

After reading the replies here, especially Helen T., it seems there has to be a caveat in all cases that if your pard opens 3rd hand or 4th hand, you have to be careful about pushing to game with a near-opening-bid hand that you passed in 1st or 2nd seat. According to Helen, pard might only have a four-card suit and 8 or 9 points, so even if you have passed with 11 working points and have four-card support for pard's major, you have to tread lightly until pard indicates a normal opener or better.

[hotShot]

If your length in a suit is 0 or 1, than the other 3 player have an average length of 4 or 4.33 cards. Since 2 of them are opps they have an average combined length of 8 or 8.66 cards in that suit.
So if you think about an opening in any seat and you are single or void in a higher ranking suit, opps will on average have a fit in that suit and can outbid you on the same level.
This also applies if you hold 2 cards in a higher ranking suit, one of your opps will have 5 cards in that suit about half of the time and in more that 1/3 of the cases opps will have a fit.

So the true meaning of the "rule of 15" applies to any suit.
If you hold 12 HCP and 3 cards in all suits that are higher ranked than the one that you wish to open, there is a good chance that opps can't outbid you with a fit in a higher ranking suit.

But this rule does not take into account, that holding a single or void in a suit strengthens your hand if playing with trumps allowing you to safely bid one level more.

If you think about opening in a suit (in any seat) and want to use a rule of 15 you have to apply it to every higher ranking suit and it is only valuable if your hand is (semi)balanced.

In 3rd seat it is more important to think about the fact that 3rd and 4th seat on average share 24 HCP and that the the first 2 seat average 8 HCP each. Considering that you need preempts if opps might have game and you don't want to miss your own games.

[P_Marlowe]

Califdude, on Nov 19 2008, 05:06 AM, said:

After reading the replies here, especially Helen T., it seems there has to be a caveat in all cases that if your pard opens 3rd hand or 4th hand, you have to be careful about pushing to game with a near-opening-bid hand that you passed in 1st or 2nd seat. According to Helen, pard might only have a four-card suit and 8 or 9 points, so even if you have passed with 11 working points and have four-card support for pard's major, you have to tread lightly until pard indicates a normal opener or better.

#1 Read Helens post more careful, she certainly does not advocate
opening a 4 card suit with only 8 or 9 points in 4th seat.
#2 Pushing to game with 4 card support and 11 working points is
even oppossite a 1st or 2nd seat opener not the best idea,
those hands are called invitational (limit raises)
#3 If you believe in weak 1 level openings in 3rd seat, you may
consider playing Drury / Two-way Drury.
#4 I just want to add one point: Only openings in a major are lighter,
it is not common to open light with a minor, at least the difference
of a 1 level opener in a minor in 2nd vs. 3rd seat is alot less,
than if you would compare 1 level openers in a major.

With kind regards
Marlowe