[mike777]

Both Vul at IMPs. FWIW, you are trailing 21-28 on bd 10 of 12.

KQ84
3
Q1085
AKJ5

Opener on your left starts 1D-P-P.

[kenrexford]

1NT.

[ArtK78]

A bit heavy for a normal 1NT balance (not to mention the obvious flaw in the heart suit).

Seems like a 1♠ bid to me. Double is right on values, but there is that heart suit flaw again.

[pclayton]

Pass

Pass, 1♠ and 1N might all work on a given day. Doubling makes no sense to me.


There are several good reasons for bidding:

1. We might have a 4-4 spade fit.

2. We might make 3N on power when pard has 4 decent hearts.

3. 1♦ might actually play well for them.


These are the reasons for passing:

1. If we bid they will run to their heart fit although the risk of this mitigated if we overcall 1N.

2. When we climb to 3N and pard doesn't have the 4 bagger in hearts we were hoping for.

3. If we overcall 1N and pard transfers us to his crappy 5 bagger that he didn't want to overcall on.

4. 1♦ will a lot of the time be the best spot for us. Even when we can make 3N, I expect a lot of +300's for a lose 7. I think we'll have plenty of pushes, plus 5's, 6's and 7's to make up for the game swings.

The worst scenario IMO is when we have the 4-4 spade fit. But its just as easy to see that 4 spades can go down with a diamond ruff, or diamonds wedged over us, or something else like that.

In the end, don't bid because you are worried about losing 11. I think the penalty for being wrong either way is 5-8 (and rarely 11), but there's so many ways passing is better than bidding.

[ArcLight]

1. Where are the hearts?
2. Why did RHO not bid them? He must have a bad hand.

Pard wont have a decent hand with a dime stack. He didnt overcall hearts, probably he doesnt have much.

I suspect LHO has a very good hand, perhaps 2 suited.

I don't care for 1NT.
Perhaps 1 Spade.
Or pass. So the opps don't get together in hearts.

[jdonn]

pclayton, on Sep 4 2008, 03:36 PM, said:

Pass, 1♠ and 1N might all work on a given day. Doubling makes no sense to me.

What bad thing do you think will happen if you double? Partner will jump to 4♥ on a hand where he passed over 1♦? I play 1NT as 11-14 over a minor, so I double then bid notrump. I don't think passing is unlikely to work, but I know I wouldn't do it.

[cherdano]

I pass if Donn is at the other table, and I double if it's Phil.

[pclayton]

jdonn, on Sep 4 2008, 12:52 PM, said:

pclayton, on Sep 4 2008, 03:36 PM, said:

Pass, 1♠ and 1N might all work on a given day. Doubling makes no sense to me.

What bad thing do you think will happen if you double? Partner will jump to 4♥ on a hand where he passed over 1♦? I play 1NT as 11-14 over a minor, so I double then bid notrump. I don't think passing is unlikely to work, but I know I wouldn't do it.

Heh; maybe double could work out. I didn't think of the ramifications with pard passing.

We can handle 1♥ and 2♥ by pard easily enough, but this also brings hearts into play for the bad guys (unlike 1N).

[jdonn]

cherdano, on Sep 4 2008, 04:53 PM, said:

I pass if Donn is at the other table

You feel the need to swing with Donn at the other table? You must be assuming you are losing the match

[cherdano]

jdonn, on Sep 5 2008, 10:41 AM, said:

cherdano, on Sep 4 2008, 04:53 PM, said:

I pass if Donn is at the other table

You feel the need to swing with Donn at the other table? You must be assuming you are losing the match

It's not my feeling, I was told we are trailing by 7 IMPs with 3 boards to go in the original post. Given that Donn is in my seat in the other table, I apparently have terrible teammates, so I better swing wild

[benlessard]

Quote

Pass

Pass, 1♠ and 1N might all work on a given day. Doubling makes no sense to me.


There are several good reasons for bidding:

1. We might have a 4-4 spade fit.

2. We might make 3N on power when pard has 4 decent hearts.

3. 1♦ might actually play well for them.


These are the reasons for passing:

1. If we bid they will run to their heart fit although the risk of this mitigated if we overcall 1N.

2. When we climb to 3N and pard doesn't have the 4 bagger in hearts we were hoping for.

3. If we overcall 1N and pard transfers us to his crappy 5 bagger that he didn't want to overcall on.

4. 1♦ will a lot of the time be the best spot for us. Even when we can make 3N, I expect a lot of +300's for a lose 7. I think we'll have plenty of pushes, plus 5's, 6's and 7's to make up for the game swings.

The worst scenario IMO is when we have the 4-4 spade fit. But its just as easy to see that 4 spades can go down with a diamond ruff, or diamonds wedged over us, or something else like that.

In the end, don't bid because you are worried about losing 11. I think the penalty for being wrong either way is 5-8 (and rarely 11), but there's so many ways passing is better than bidding.

Good post .

I prefer pass too but i much prefer X to 1S or 1NT.

1- My 1Nt in balanced is 11-14.
2- X is curiously more likely to keep them away from H than a 1S overcall.
3- Over 1H ill bid 1NT and partner will be less tempted to correct to 2H than if i had overcall 1Nt directly. So X is more likely to lead to a 1Nt contract than a direct 1Nt.

[mike777]

Dlr: East
Vul: Both
North
S KQ84
H 3
D Q1085
C AKJ5

West .......................... East
S 53 ........................ S J2
H 987542..................... H AK
D 62 ........................ D AKJ743
C 1097 ...................... C Q63


South
S A10976
H QJ106
D 9
C 842

[pclayton]

mike777, on Sep 6 2008, 12:23 PM, said:

Dlr: East
Vul: Both
    North
    S KQ84         
    H 3           
    D Q1085       
    C AKJ5 
     
  West ..........................  East
  S 53 ........................            S J2           
  H 987542.....................          H AK           
  D 62            ........................ D AKJ743       
  C 1097          ...................... C Q63 

       
    South
    S A10976       
    H QJ106       
    D 9           
    C 842

So South forgot to overcall. The point of this is?

[mike777]

pclayton, on Sep 6 2008, 05:24 PM, said:

mike777, on Sep 6 2008, 12:23 PM, said:

Dlr: East
Vul: Both
    North
    S KQ84         
    H 3            
    D Q1085        
    C AKJ5  
      
  West ..........................   East
  S 53 ........................             S J2           
  H 987542.....................          H AK           
  D 62             ........................ D AKJ743       
  C 1097           ...................... C Q63 

        
    South
    S A10976       
    H QJ106        
    D 9            
    C 842

So South forgot to overcall. The point of this is?

Not my hands but if you are suggesting this is a CLEAR and EASY vul overcall at imps that sounds like an interesting discussion and a learning opportunity for me.

[han]

Agree with Phil.

[the hog]

Agree with Phil and Han. This IS a clear and easy overcall. Mike we have been through this sort of stuff before.

[mike777]

The_Hog, on Sep 6 2008, 09:39 PM, said:

Agree with Phil and Han. This IS a clear and easy overcall. Mike we have been through this sort of stuff before.

I must have missed it.......I really thought this was far far from clear............hope for more explanation.....


btw not my hands this was a star table and south passed.....

As for me, I admit I find it very frustrating when expert players say easy one spade. I play one spade shows excellent suit vul or sound opening hand.

But....ty for feedback

[the hog]

Well Mike, Caspar Milquetoast might pass. Other players believe in getting in and showing their suits and hope for a raise.

[1eyedjack]

I reckon that larger swings are more likely if the auction is bumped up a bit. So count me in for competing. I don't have a strong preference for how - depends on agreed methods. Just don't like passing.

[Lobowolf]

mike777, on Sep 6 2008, 09:40 PM, said:

The_Hog, on Sep 6 2008, 09:39 PM, said:

Agree with Phil and Han. This IS a clear and easy overcall. Mike we have been through this sort of stuff before.

I must have missed it.......I really thought this was far far from clear............hope for more explanation.....


btw not my hands this was a star table and south passed.....

As for me, I admit I find it very frustrating when expert players say easy one spade. I play one spade shows excellent suit vul or sound opening hand.

But....ty for feedback

Mike -

When you distinguish between vulnerable and non-vulnerable overcalls, the distinction is based on insurance against getting nailed. That's probably not going to happen at the 1-level (and if it threatens to, with a trump stack behind you, you have further insurance in that if partner chooses to make an SOS redouble, you have hearts, and if partner runs to clubs, you have those, too.) Furthermore, if you go down a few, then the opponents presumably had a game, and anyway, they're very, very rarely looking to double you at the 1-level.

What's potentially more likely, when you make an indiscreet vulnerable overcall, is that partner with a fit might raise you to a higher level, and you get nailed THERE. This hand is better than it looks at first glance, though, on a couple of counts. If you're familiar with losing trick count, you'll see that the south hand is an 8-loser hand, which is generally a trick better than you'd expect from a 7 HCP hand. If a fit with partner is established (and we're talking about situations where partner with a fit raises you), then this hand has the trick-taking value of a limit raise, more or less; so if you're thinking of it as just "a 7-point hand," you're undervaluing it. Additionally, the hand has outstanding spot cards in its long suit, which really firm up the trick-taking potential and the safety value. QJTx is markedly better than Q852 with a jack in a side suit, though both situations account for 3 HCP. ATxxx isn't the best suit ever, but AT976 is better than AT642. So, again, the "filler" cards, which don't factor into the 4321 point count, suggest that the hand is worth more than you'd think if you were just counting points.

This hand also has potential to find a fit with partner in hearts, which might get mentioned in a competitive auction. The shift in bidding theory, which has evolved from where overcalls looked quite a bit like opening bids to the point where the 7-point overcall is commonplace (though I wouldn't call it automatic), is reflective of a general awareness/respect for competitive bidding, the trick-taking value of fits even with a minority of the high card points, and the realization that by not fighting for the contract, you're not only getting enough of "yours," but you're making it too easy for them to get "theirs" if they always play their part-scores at the 2-level. The chance to make something, or to push them (particularly to the 3-level) to a point where they're going down is just too valuable to be overly conservative when it comes to taking action when they've gone first. In the long run, it doesn't pay to give them a free pass every time you don't have 2 of the top 3 honors or an opening bid.

So the main factors that are going into "easy overcall" comments are (in no particular order)

1. The importance of competing for the partscore, particularly with 9 cards in the majors.
2. The increased trick-taking potential of the hand based on losing trick count.
3. The increased trick-taking potential of the hand based on suit texture (spot cards in the long suits).

How "clear and easy" it is is a matter of partnership agreement and style. I think it's close to borderline; I don't know how much worse you could make it and still want to overcall. But since you wanted thought processes and explanations, this is sort of what you're looking at. If you wait for great suits or opening hands, then you're probably losing the partscore battle quite a bit - going -110 at both tables, for instance, and you should consider (at least on a trial basis and after discussion with your partner) loosening up your requirements for coming in, particularly at the 1-level. Spot cards, distribution, and losing trick count are all good things to look at when deciding which of those hands to make "non-passes."

The reason that most of these hands pass largely without comment is that experts have generally considered hand evaluation and competitive bidding decisions like this thousands of time, and have a large bank of experience to draw from when weighing the pros and cons of bidding and passing. So very often, the internal calculus is almost automatic, the way an expert golfer might look at a lie and say "It's a 4-iron."