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Lead against 6NT

#1 User is offline   gnasher 

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Posted 2008-August-13, 05:47

Scoring: MP

p   p   p   2♣
3♣ 3♦ p   3♥
p   4♥ p   4NT
p   5D p   6NT

If you don't like your bidding, I'll understand. What would you lead?
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
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#2 User is offline   dicklont 

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Posted 2008-August-13, 06:07

It looks like the leader has AQ in clubs because he prefers NT over hearts.
I lead a small spade, this is safe with any honour card in partners hand.
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#3 User is online   mikeh 

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Posted 2008-August-13, 10:05

Great lead problem: I have vacillated between a spade and a diamond several times, and even contemplated (briefly) a heart. Anything but a club appears possible.

I'd like to know their agreements on suit quality for 3♦. If they allow a weakish suit, then that would more likely get me leading diamonds even tho there was no double... it is not even clear that double would be about diamonds rather than clubs.

The spade could be horrible.. could give them their 12th trick while certainly telling declarer a lot about the distribution.. I bid clubs then show spade length. But a diamond could easily blow a tempo and allow them to score 10 red suit winners to accompany their 2 black aces, when the spade lead hits partner with the spade King and a red stopper.

So I waffle.. and then lead a spade B)
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Posted 2008-August-13, 10:18

I'd lead a spade.
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#5 User is offline   cherdano 

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Posted 2008-August-13, 10:29

mikeh, on Aug 13 2008, 10:05 AM, said:

The spade could be horrible.. could give them their 12th trick while certainly telling declarer a lot about the distribution.. I bid clubs then show spade length. But a diamond could easily blow a tempo and allow them to score 10 red suit winners to accompany their 2 black aces, when the spade lead hits partner with the spade King and a red stopper.

So I waffle.. and then lead a spade B)

If you waffle, then don't lead a spade, you will get strip-squeezed into giving declarer his 12th trick in clubs or spades anyway :)
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#6 User is offline   Lobowolf 

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Posted 2008-August-13, 10:30

Spade looks like the best compromise between safety and productivity. Hoping for the ♠J seems like a small enough wish as to not offend the card gods.
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#7 User is offline   gnasher 

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Posted 2008-August-14, 01:24

If your low spade lead hits partner's jack or king, that may well leave you in sole control of the spade suit, and ripe for a squeeze or endplay. What about leading a high spade instead?
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
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#8 User is offline   Rossoneri 

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Posted 2008-August-14, 09:52

I'll probably think a bit, and lead a ♠.
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#9 User is offline   FrancesHinden 

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Posted 2008-August-14, 10:16

cherdano, on Aug 13 2008, 05:29 PM, said:

mikeh, on Aug 13 2008, 10:05 AM, said:

The spade could be horrible.. could give them their 12th trick while certainly telling declarer a lot about the distribution.. I bid clubs then show spade length. But a diamond could easily blow a tempo and allow them to score 10 red suit winners to accompany their 2 black aces, when the spade lead hits partner with the spade King and a red stopper.

So I waffle.. and then lead a spade :blink:

If you waffle, then don't lead a spade, you will get strip-squeezed into giving declarer his 12th trick in clubs or spades anyway :)

Even if that's true double-dummy (and I recognise the hand so I know the answer), declarer may not necessarily play for that layout rather than taking a spade finesse.
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#10 User is offline   benlessard 

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Posted 2008-August-14, 10:23

Club is out because declarer choose 6Nt instead of 6H wich make it likely hes got 2 C stoppers.

D is out because partner could have X 5D (wich show D not lightner or clubs because otherwise you ll risk playing 5D xx)

I think a H is unlikely to cost a trick while i see many scenario where a S cost a trick. Its true that partner may have the K of S and a red stopper but he easily might have just the A fo S and leading S = no more guess for declarer.

I ll prefer a H to a S but im far from sure.
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