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Another lead problem

#1 User is offline   han 

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Posted 2008-August-06, 14:08

I know lead problems rarely lead to interesting discussions but here is another one:

AJ9x
9
KJ10
K9xxx

You are playing IMPs, lefty deals and passes. The auction:

p - p - 1NT - p
2D* - p - 3H - all pass

The opponents were first time partners and didn't discuss superaccepts. Your lead?
Please note: I am interested in boring, bog standard, 2/1.

- hrothgar
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#2 User is offline   jdonn 

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Posted 2008-August-06, 14:28

Have to admit I would lead a trump, Josh's law.
Please let me know about any questions or interest or bug reports about GIB.
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#3 User is offline   han 

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Posted 2008-August-06, 14:31

ok tell us, what is Josh's law?
Please note: I am interested in boring, bog standard, 2/1.

- hrothgar
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#4 User is offline   jdonn 

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Posted 2008-August-06, 15:00

han, on Aug 6 2008, 03:31 PM, said:

ok tell us, what is Josh's law?

This is like the 4th time Justin or I posted it here, and every time someone asks hehe.

I bet you can figure it out.
Please let me know about any questions or interest or bug reports about GIB.
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#5 User is online   mikeh 

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Posted 2008-August-06, 15:18

I don't know josh's law but I do know that any lead I make could easily blow a trick, but that the trump lead seems the least likely...
'one of the great markers of the advance of human kindness is the howls you will hear from the Men of God' Johann Hari
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#6 User is offline   Echognome 

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Posted 2008-August-06, 16:36

jdonn, on Aug 6 2008, 01:00 PM, said:

han, on Aug 6 2008, 03:31 PM, said:

ok tell us, what is Josh's law?

This is like the 4th time Justin or I posted it here, and every time someone asks hehe.

I bet you can figure it out.

"When in doubt, ask Josh." ?
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#7 User is offline   MFA 

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Posted 2008-August-06, 16:45

Club. I'd rather blow the trick myself than pickle partner.
Michael Askgaard
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#8 Guest_Jlall_*

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Posted 2008-August-06, 19:37

This seems more like a bidding problem than a lead problem. Definitely scared that we are cold for partscore/game but I agree with not doubling.
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#9 User is offline   han 

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Posted 2008-August-06, 20:05

It was also a bidding problem yes. I could have doubled 1NT to show a 4-card major and a longer minor. However, vulnerable against not with a passed hand partner I decided not to.
Please note: I am interested in boring, bog standard, 2/1.

- hrothgar
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#10 User is offline   andy_h 

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Posted 2008-August-07, 01:11

jdonn, on Aug 7 2008, 06:28 AM, said:

Have to admit I would lead a trump, Josh's law.

I'm getting the hang of that now.


Interestingly, my post on it a few weeks ago was almost the same situation.
http://forums.bridge...topic=26454&hl=
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#11 User is offline   gnasher 

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Posted 2008-August-07, 01:31

han, on Aug 7 2008, 03:05 AM, said:

I could have doubled 1NT to show a 4-card major and a longer minor.

I'd have done that.

Having passed over 1NT, I'd have doubled 3♥. They have a 9-card fit and its IMPs, so they won't be doubling aggressively. A greater risk is that they're about to bid 4♥ and that my double will help them to make it, but all those partscore gains should make up for the occasional game swing out.

I lead a trump. Having failed to show my hand in the bidding, I may as well show it with the opening lead.
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
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#12 User is offline   jdonn 

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Posted 2008-August-07, 09:35

gnasher, on Aug 7 2008, 02:31 AM, said:

Having passed over 1NT, I'd have doubled 3♥. They have a 9-card fit and its IMPs, so they won't be doubling aggressively. A greater risk is that they're about to bid 4♥ and that my double will help them to make it, but all those partscore gains should make up for the occasional game swing out.

I don't know what makes you think buying it for these partscores will be gains.
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#13 User is offline   han 

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Posted 2008-August-07, 10:13

For those who like to hear the results:

You can't make anything above 3H, the best you can hope for is 3C.

If you lead a black suit 3H makes. After a red suit lead 3H can be defeated.
Please note: I am interested in boring, bog standard, 2/1.

- hrothgar
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#14 User is offline   brianshark 

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Posted 2008-August-07, 10:14

"When the lead of every suit could give a trick, lead trump"
or
"When there is no suit that looks likely to be running, lead trump"
or
"With good spots in all side suits, lead trump"

Am I close with any of them?
The difference between theory and practice is that in theory, there is no difference between theory and practice, but in practice, there is.
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#15 User is offline   jdonn 

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Posted 2008-August-07, 10:21

Sorry 0 for 3.
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#16 User is offline   sathyab 

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Posted 2008-August-07, 20:12

han, on Aug 7 2008, 11:13 AM, said:

For those who like to hear the results:

You can't make anything above 3H, the best you can hope for is 3C.

If you lead a black suit 3H makes. After a red suit lead 3H can be defeated.

Playing MP against GIBs I held Axxx xx J9xx ATxx. And the bidding proceeded:

1nt-2d-2h-3h.

On lead, I thought Josh's law applied here too mistaking this for an auction like 1nt-2d-3h. And I led a trump. Dummy had JT QT9xxx T 9xxx and declarer had xxxx AKx AKQx xx. With a Diamond lead, all the defense makes is two club tricks. With a trump lead, may be 3 club tricks. Banging either black suit Ace and cashing all the tricks in those suits is the preferred approach here :)
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#17 Guest_Jlall_*

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Posted 2008-August-07, 20:16

sathyab, on Aug 7 2008, 09:12 PM, said:

han, on Aug 7 2008, 11:13 AM, said:

For those who like to hear the results:

You can't make anything above 3H, the best you can hope for is 3C.

If you lead a black suit 3H makes. After a red suit lead 3H can be defeated.

Playing MP against GIBs I held Axxx xx J9xx ATxx. And the bidding proceeded:

1nt-2d-2h-3h.

On lead, I thought Josh's law applied here too mistaking this for an auction like 1nt-2d-3h. And I led a trump. Dummy had JT QT9xxx T 9xxx and declarer had xxxx AKx AKQx xx. With a Diamond lead, all the defense makes is two club tricks. With a trump lead, may be 3 club tricks. Banging either black suit Ace and cashing all the tricks in those suits is the preferred approach here :)

Are you suggesting that banging down an ace is the correct thing to do here? If so I definitely disagree but I would prefer a diamond to a heart.
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#18 User is offline   sathyab 

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Posted 2008-August-07, 22:07

Jlall, on Aug 7 2008, 09:16 PM, said:

sathyab, on Aug 7 2008, 09:12 PM, said:

han, on Aug 7 2008, 11:13 AM, said:

For those who like to hear the results:

You can't make anything above 3H, the best you can hope for is 3C.

If you lead a black suit 3H makes. After a red suit lead 3H can be defeated.

Playing MP against GIBs I held Axxx xx J9xx ATxx. And the bidding proceeded:

1nt-2d-2h-3h.

On lead, I thought Josh's law applied here too mistaking this for an auction like 1nt-2d-3h. And I led a trump. Dummy had JT QT9xxx T 9xxx and declarer had xxxx AKx AKQx xx. With a Diamond lead, all the defense makes is two club tricks. With a trump lead, may be 3 club tricks. Banging either black suit Ace and cashing all the tricks in those suits is the preferred approach here :)

Are you suggesting that banging down an ace is the correct thing to do here? If so I definitely disagree but I would prefer a diamond to a heart.

May be you missed the :) :) B) :P ?
Seeking input from anyone who doesn't frequently "wtp", "Lol" or post to merely "Agree with ..."
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