mikeh, on Jul 19 2008, 02:24 PM, said:
BTW, while the LOTT tends to break down on freaks, we can also consider that the total tricks rates to be about 21, so if they make 10 tricks, we make 11 and so on... if we make 10, they make 11. I am not a LOTT fanatic but I do keep in it mind on some hands, and, here, it confirms or supports my experience-based view.
Well, sorry to insist, but....
If you are NOT playing support doubles, I think the X makes it likely partner is 1354. Partner's double pretty much shows that he bid previously with 3 card support, and while I suppose he could be 2353 or the like, I prefer having a singleton to raise partner with 3 card support. Somehow, I don't think he just doubled with a singleton club!
So if that's true, then total tricks is only 18. 5
♥ is going to depend on the strength of his hearts, but I'll wager that you have more than 5 tricks in clubs. 800 is certainly not the highest possible score on this.
Now, you may be shocked that somebody would bid 5
♣ when they only have an 8 card fit, but they can see the vulnerability too. They see this is a free push, and they're probably right. It's very difficult to leave in 5 clubs doubled when they're green. And they could have a 9 card fit. But I'm betting here that TT isn't 20.
So when not playing support doubles, I think it's a very close decision. Oddly enough, I'm more likely to pass because it's IMPs. I think the most likely cases are -500 and -800 for them. -500 is -3 IMPs vs. 5
♥=. -800 is +4 IMPs. So I have to be right a little under half the time...and that's only if 5
♥ makes. If 5
♥ goes down, I'm sure happy I passed!
If you are playing support doubles, then you gotta bid 5
♥. Not only does it change the meaning of 2
♥, but it effectively changes the meaning of the X, since 'nothing extra on offense' is now 4 card support, not 3 with shortness outside of clubs.