[Trumpace]

1) How would you play the following combination for 3 tricks?

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2) In an IMPS game you are South and reach 3NT. LHO leads the ♥Q. You see

Scoring: IMP

Lead ♥Q

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Plan the play.


As usual Adv/Exp please refrain from posting too soon.

[FrancesHinden]

Without actually given an answer, do you think the answer to the second is the same as the answer to the first?

[han]

Great problem, although I think the IMP calculation is too hard for B/I players. I think the expected line beats the beginners line by only 10:7, but I could easily be wrong.

[pclayton]

I would also add does your play change if LHO plays the 8 in certain circumstances.

[david_c]

I've seen this hand before! I was given it in a U25 training session (and got it wrong).

Hidden:

Spoiler

There is a 100% line.

[han]

Yes David, but is that also the best line? We're playing IMPs, not total points.

[jocdelevat]

1. I will give q club in hope I can take the remaining clubs with ace and jack.
2. I took the q heart then play another round of hearts. then I play 3rounds of spades and play the last heart to put the LHO to lead after making his hearts. This line fail if op has 6 hearts.
p.s At the table I don't think I can analize fast and I will play for clubs to drop after sacrifice q.

[frouu]

we have 7 top tricks,
I would win heart, cash ♣ ace, go up to dummy with a ♠, then play a small ♣ to J:
a ) if east plays small and west wins, ♣ are 3-2, we had set up 2 more ♣tricks,
b ) if east ducks and west shows out, we play a ♦ to get the 9th trick.
c ) if east wins, ♣Q and J are established for two more winners
d ) if east shows out, and west wins ♣K, win the return, come to hand with a ♠ and and finesse ♣10.

I assumed clubs are 4-1 worst, but for 5-0 similar line should work I think.

[han]

That's a nice 100% line frouu, but you give up on 2 overtricks if east has Kx of clubs or 1 overtrick if west has the stiff 10 of clubs. And overtricks do matter at IMPs. If you take the club finesse then you only go down if west started with the stiff king of clubs and the opponents can take 3 heart tricks before you set up your diamond. Isn't the IMP expectancy of that line actually higher than the IMP expectancy of the safety play? Yesterday I thought it isn't but I forgot about the heart suit. Now I think simply taking the finesse is better.

[vuroth]

Trumpace, on Jul 14 2008, 10:35 AM, said:

1) How would you play the following combination for 3 tricks?

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I seem to struggle with how to approach problems like this, but I'll try this one in isolation.

Ace, then Q/J takes home all 3/2 splits. This is over 50%

Low to the jack looks weak. If it holds, my best bet seems to be to cash the ace. This works on 3/2 as above. If LHO held KTxx, I can lead up to the Q9 on the board to finesse for the third winner. If the jack finesse fails, same idea.

Low towards the 9 (covering if necessary) works whenever LHO has the ten. If RHO wins the ten, I can still win 3 if the king was doubleton (play the ace), or RHO had KTx (finesse jack). This seems inferior.

Ace then low towards 9 wins when king or ten are singleton, and when RHO has the ten.

Low towards the Q will have LHO ducking if he can, so that's no good.

I don't see a line in isolation that offers over, say, 60% odds. The key seems to be to keep the Q9 intact, in case you need to finesse for the T if the suit does not split.

V

[Stephen Tu]

han, on Jul 15 2008, 07:25 AM, said:

Isn't the IMP expectancy of that line actually higher than the IMP expectancy of the safety play?

Close, unclear and depends on vul. It also depends on the bidding, did LHO chime in with 1h/2h? The overtrick(s) come in only 13% of the time, vs. stiff K off 2.8%, but stiff K off you might still survive if hearts 4-4, or 6-2 with RHO having DA. Plus stiff K makes the 5-3 break more likely, it would take awhile to figure this out exactly.

[Trumpace]

When I posted this problem, I hadn't even considered the overtrick(s) issue, which is too hard (and unfair) to B/I.

Perhaps I should have just written it as a Rubber bridge hand.

My Apologies...

[Trumpace]

Stephen Tu, on Jul 15 2008, 04:54 PM, said:

han, on Jul 15 2008, 07:25 AM, said:

Isn't the IMP expectancy of that line actually higher than the IMP expectancy of the safety play?

Close, unclear and depends on vul. It also depends on the bidding, did LHO chime in with 1h/2h? The overtrick(s) come in only 13% of the time, vs. stiff K off 2.8%, but stiff K off you might still survive if hearts 4-4, or 6-2 with RHO having DA. Plus stiff K makes the 5-3 break more likely, it would take awhile to figure this out exactly.

Vul is Nobody vul. Also don't you have to split the 13% into 2 overtricks vs 1?

Also, are we even considering what will happen on the other table? Assuming declarer is in 3NT, and takes the 100% line... For instance if the hearts block, declarer will make an overtrick in some cases.

This is just getting too complicated... I agree with Stephen, this is not clear at all, and might even depend on what our team-mate sitting in the East seat might do.