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Best play for 4 tricks?
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Desperation suit combo
#1
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Posted 2008-July-11, 10:35
Please note: I am interested in boring, bog standard, 2/1.
- hrothgar
- hrothgar
#2
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Posted 2008-July-11, 10:40
A friend of mine once played this combo in, I think, a Spingold final (he lost, but not on this hand 
)
)
'one of the great markers of the advance of human kindness is the howls you will hear from the Men of God' Johann Hari
#3
- The Abbess
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Posted 2008-July-11, 10:45
Spoiler
The world would be such a happy place, if only everyone played Acol :) --- TramTicket
#4
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Posted 2008-July-11, 10:56
Easy one to figure out in your head.
Line 1: Cash AKQ
Line 2: Double finesse
Line 1 gains against J10x and J10 with LHO.
Line 2 gains against J10xx and J10xxx (and J10longer but it doesn't matter) with RHO
J10xx is more likely than J10x (if the suit is 4-3 the J10 are more likely to be with the 4 than with the 3)
J10xxx is more likely than J10 (if the suit is 5-2 the J10 are more likely to be with the 5 than with the 2)
So line 2 is clearly best. Note that you can figure this out with any % symbols.
Fred Gitelman
Bridge Base Inc.
www.bridgebase.com
Line 1: Cash AKQ
Line 2: Double finesse
Line 1 gains against J10x and J10 with LHO.
Line 2 gains against J10xx and J10xxx (and J10longer but it doesn't matter) with RHO
J10xx is more likely than J10x (if the suit is 4-3 the J10 are more likely to be with the 4 than with the 3)
J10xxx is more likely than J10 (if the suit is 5-2 the J10 are more likely to be with the 5 than with the 2)
So line 2 is clearly best. Note that you can figure this out with any % symbols.
Fred Gitelman
Bridge Base Inc.
www.bridgebase.com
#5
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Posted 2008-July-13, 09:21
By the way, note that fred carefully didn't mention picking up a singleton honour (J or 10) by cashing the ace first. It looks like that improves the chance of playing them from the top, but it doesn't becuase West will always play an honour from J10x
#6
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Posted 2008-July-13, 10:06
fred, on Jul 11 2008, 11:56 AM, said:
Easy one to figure out in your head.
Line 1: Cash AKQ
Line 2: Double finesse
Line 1 gains against J10x and J10 with LHO.
Line 2 gains against J10xx and J10xxx (and J10longer but it doesn't matter) with RHO
J10xx is more likely than J10x (if the suit is 4-3 the J10 are more likely to be with the 4 than with the 3)
J10xxx is more likely than J10 (if the suit is 5-2 the J10 are more likely to be with the 5 than with the 2)
So line 2 is clearly best. Note that you can figure this out with any % symbols.
Fred Gitelman
Bridge Base Inc.
www.bridgebase.com
Line 1: Cash AKQ
Line 2: Double finesse
Line 1 gains against J10x and J10 with LHO.
Line 2 gains against J10xx and J10xxx (and J10longer but it doesn't matter) with RHO
J10xx is more likely than J10x (if the suit is 4-3 the J10 are more likely to be with the 4 than with the 3)
J10xxx is more likely than J10 (if the suit is 5-2 the J10 are more likely to be with the 5 than with the 2)
So line 2 is clearly best. Note that you can figure this out with any % symbols.
Fred Gitelman
Bridge Base Inc.
www.bridgebase.com
This analysis, although dead right, nonetheless brings up an important caveat, IMO. When the comparion holding vary distributionally in this manner (2.5 length versus 4.5 length), a little bit of discovery outside of this suit, or inference, or restricted choice leads, etc., might in real life tilt the balanced somewhat.
"Gibberish in, gibberish out. A trial judge, three sets of lawyers, and now three appellate judges cannot agree on what this law means. And we ask police officers, prosecutors, defense lawyers, and citizens to enforce or abide by it? The legislature continues to write unreadable statutes. Gibberish should not be enforced as law."
-P.J. Painter.
-P.J. Painter.
#7
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Posted 2008-July-13, 10:22
kenrexford, on Jul 13 2008, 10:06 AM, said:
fred, on Jul 11 2008, 11:56 AM, said:
Easy one to figure out in your head.
Line 1: Cash AKQ
Line 2: Double finesse
Line 1 gains against J10x and J10 with LHO.
Line 2 gains against J10xx and J10xxx (and J10longer but it doesn't matter) with RHO
J10xx is more likely than J10x (if the suit is 4-3 the J10 are more likely to be with the 4 than with the 3)
J10xxx is more likely than J10 (if the suit is 5-2 the J10 are more likely to be with the 5 than with the 2)
So line 2 is clearly best. Note that you can figure this out with any % symbols.
Fred Gitelman
Bridge Base Inc.
www.bridgebase.com
Line 1: Cash AKQ
Line 2: Double finesse
Line 1 gains against J10x and J10 with LHO.
Line 2 gains against J10xx and J10xxx (and J10longer but it doesn't matter) with RHO
J10xx is more likely than J10x (if the suit is 4-3 the J10 are more likely to be with the 4 than with the 3)
J10xxx is more likely than J10 (if the suit is 5-2 the J10 are more likely to be with the 5 than with the 2)
So line 2 is clearly best. Note that you can figure this out with any % symbols.
Fred Gitelman
Bridge Base Inc.
www.bridgebase.com
This analysis, although dead right, nonetheless brings up an important caveat, IMO. When the comparion holding vary distributionally in this manner (2.5 length versus 4.5 length), a little bit of discovery outside of this suit, or inference, or restricted choice leads, etc., might in real life tilt the balanced somewhat.
Either you are wrong, or I misunderstand. Note that Fred was only comparing holding with the same lengths of East and West, so knowing the exact count doesn't matter at all. The odds are also quite strongly in favor of the percentage play - e.g. if the suit is 3=4 it is 2:1 in favor.
The easiest way to count losers is to line up the people who talk about loser count, and count them. -Kieran Dyke
#8
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Posted 2008-July-13, 10:30
Yeah, I got a little confused there. What I was originally thinking is that holdings like J10xxx and J10xx, J10, and J10x, and the companion xx, xxx, xxxx, and xxxxx, seem to have inferences arise.
"Gibberish in, gibberish out. A trial judge, three sets of lawyers, and now three appellate judges cannot agree on what this law means. And we ask police officers, prosecutors, defense lawyers, and citizens to enforce or abide by it? The legislature continues to write unreadable statutes. Gibberish should not be enforced as law."
-P.J. Painter.
-P.J. Painter.
#9 Guest_Jlall_*
Posted 2008-July-13, 12:34
fred, on Jul 11 2008, 11:56 AM, said:
Easy one to figure out in your head.
Yes I think Han posted this one in the beginner/intermediate forum because experts would find it easy
Standard protocol on this forum is for experts to use hidden text (like helene_t).
#10
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Posted 2008-July-14, 08:39
Jlall, on Jul 13 2008, 06:34 PM, said:
fred, on Jul 11 2008, 11:56 AM, said:
Easy one to figure out in your head.
Yes I think Han posted this one in the beginner/intermediate forum because experts would find it easy
Standard protocol on this forum is for experts to use hidden text (like helene_t).
Sorry to the B/Is out there. Hope I didn't ruin the problem for too many of you.
Actually I rarely notice which Forum a given post appears in. I will try to pay more attention to this.
Fred Gitelman
Bridge Base Inc.
www.bridgebase.com
#11
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Posted 2008-July-14, 09:23
Actually, whatever the forum and whatever your level, it is probably best to read the opening post and see what you can make of it. Having either solved it or taken it as far as you can, then read on. So, I am not sure this hidden text thing does much good - if you're of a mind not to solve it you'll just highlight the text anyway.
Nick
Nick
"Pass is your friend" - my brother in law - who likes to bid a lot.
#12
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Posted 2008-July-14, 09:44
NickRW, on Jul 14 2008, 10:23 AM, said:
Actually, whatever the forum and whatever your level, it is probably best to read the opening post and see what you can make of it. Having either solved it or taken it as far as you can, then read on. So, I am not sure this hidden text thing does much good - if you're of a mind not to solve it you'll just highlight the text anyway.
Nick
Nick
Sometimes corrections to the problem etc are discussed, we cannot have spoilers etc revealed/sandwiched between those posts.
Also the answer being hidden might dissuade some people from giving up too easily or accidently viewing them.
It might not be doing any good, but IMO it is not doing any harm either (except for the minor inconveniece to read/write such posts).
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