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5-5

Poll: your bid (44 member(s) have cast votes)

your bid

  1. P (5 votes [11.36%])

    Percentage of vote: 11.36%

  2. X (13 votes [29.55%])

    Percentage of vote: 29.55%

  3. 3S (14 votes [31.82%])

    Percentage of vote: 31.82%

  4. 4D NLM (2 votes [4.55%])

    Percentage of vote: 4.55%

  5. the damage caused by passing this gem in first seat is unmanagable (10 votes [22.73%])

    Percentage of vote: 22.73%

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#1 User is offline   gwnn 

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Posted 2008-May-22, 16:42

AK8xx

JT9xx
xxx

p-3♥-p-p
?

all vul, imps
... and I can prove it with my usual, flawless logic.
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#2 User is offline   andy_h 

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Posted 2008-May-22, 19:28

I'm going to go for 3S.
- Andy -

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We're in the universe, and the universe is in us.
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#3 Guest_Jlall_*

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Posted 2008-May-22, 20:26

I would crack it, I can imagine a big number a lot.
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#4 User is offline   Cascade 

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Posted 2008-May-22, 21:20

Jlall, on May 23 2008, 02:26 PM, said:

I would crack it, I can imagine a big number a lot.

For which side?
Wayne Burrows

I believe that the USA currently hold only the World Championship For People Who Still Bid Like Your Auntie Gladys - dburn
dunno how to play 4 card majors - JLOGIC
True but I know Standard American and what better reason could I have for playing Precision? - Hideous Hog
Bidding is an estimation of probabilities SJ Simon

#5 User is offline   neilkaz 

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Posted 2008-May-22, 21:32

Jlall, on May 22 2008, 09:26 PM, said:

I would crack it, I can imagine a big number a lot.

I have to also think that odd's favor X.
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#6 Guest_Jlall_*

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Posted 2008-May-22, 21:55

Cascade, on May 22 2008, 10:20 PM, said:

Jlall, on May 23 2008, 02:26 PM, said:

I would crack it, I can imagine a big number a lot.

For which side?

How can we be going for a big number very often? I mean it's possible RHO has a good hand with short hearts but then partner has very long hearts, and RHOs usually don't pass even with a good hand and 1 heart when their partner opens 3. Of course it's possible but I think it's like 10x as likely that we are getting them. Imagine partner made a penalty X of 3H, wouldn't you be licking your chops? I think that in this case partner has that pretty often, and if he doesn't he probably has a weak NT hand type and we should be ok then too if he bids something. I am only really worried about partner being weakish (like a 9 count) with 4 or 5 mediocre hearts and being endplayed into the pass.
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#7 User is offline   pclayton 

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Posted 2008-May-22, 22:00

I'd double too. 4♦ is an overbid and 3♠ aims for a very narrow target.
"Phil" on BBO
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#8 User is offline   jdonn 

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Posted 2008-May-23, 00:36

Cascade, on May 22 2008, 10:20 PM, said:

Jlall, on May 23 2008, 02:26 PM, said:

I would crack it, I can imagine a big number a lot.

For which side?

Ours for sure. Double.
Please let me know about any questions or interest or bug reports about GIB.
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#9 User is offline   benlessard 

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Posted 2008-May-23, 01:58

3S. Partner going to play me for a 5-5 or 5044. Any 6 card suit i can introduce naturally at the 3 level is a suit that i would have preempted at the 2 level. With a weakish suit I would have preempted or pass all the way.

X is risking to enplayed partner into pass.

QJx
Qxxx
KQx
Axxx

3Hx making & 4S making.
From Psych "I mean, Gus and I never see eye-to-eye on work stuff.
For instance, he doesn't like being used as a human shield when we're being shot at.
I happen to think it's a very noble way to meet one's maker, especially for a guy like him.
Bottom line is we never let that difference of opinion interfere with anything."
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#10 User is offline   the hog 

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Posted 2008-May-23, 03:12

benlessard, on May 23 2008, 02:58 PM, said:

3S. Partner going to play me for a 5-5 or 5044. Any 6 card suit i can introduce naturally at the 3 level is a suit that i would have preempted at the 2 level. With a weakish suit I would have preempted or pass all the way.

X is risking to enplayed partner into pass.

QJx
Qxxx
KQx
Axxx

3Hx making & 4S making.

Agree. Would bid 3S.
"The King of Hearts a broadsword bears, the Queen of Hearts a rose." W. H. Auden.
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#11 User is offline   hotShot 

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Posted 2008-May-23, 03:32

All are red, this smells like some sort of 10-11-11-8 HCP distribution.
Opener has an unbalanced hand and this hand is unbalanced too.
If partner is sort of balanced, than RHO is unbalanced and we should be prepared for some unpleasant surprises.

I pass.
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#12 User is offline   han 

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Posted 2008-May-23, 09:43

I dealt 60 hands where opener either had a 7-card heart suit headed by at least one honor, or a 6-card hearts suit headed by at least 2 honors plus a 4- or 5-card side minor. This seems as reasonable as anything for a second seat 3H opener.

Then, I threw out all the hands where the 3H did not look right or would have been raised to 4H. Then I only kept the deals where I thought partner would pass our double. This last was usually quite clear.

This left 17 deals. On those hands 3H would probably be made 4 times, once with an overtrick. This is the overtrick hand:



I'll leave it to you to decide whether the 3H opening in second seat vulnerable is right and whether west would pass or raise to 4H.

On the other 13 hands 3H would be set 1, 2 or 3 tricks.

So on the hands where partner passes I'd say you come out a bit ahead.

However, on the hands where partner pulls you come out ahead a lot, you almost always land in a good contract either in clubs, diamonds and spades.

I think double is a clear winner.
Please note: I am interested in boring, bog standard, 2/1.

- hrothgar
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#13 Guest_Jlall_*

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Posted 2008-May-23, 09:59

han, on May 23 2008, 10:43 AM, said:

I dealt 60 hands consistent with the auction and went through them manually.

On 20 of those hands I judged that partner would pass the double, and on 7 of those hands 3HX would probably be made, 2 times with at least 1 overtrick. On the other 13 deals we probably beat them 1, 2 or 3 tricks. It seems that when partner passes we are slightly behind.

However, on the 40 hands where partner pulls we are well ahead, this almost always leads to good contracts, either in spades, diamonds or clubs.

I think double is a clear winner over pass or 3S.

Well I am sceptical since so far you have given me some examples of 3H openers as x KQT9xxx Axx xx and --- AQJTxxx xx JT8x heh.

It seems wrong to me that they are making overtricks on hands where partner has PASSED the double. I mean how could they not have bid 4H already if they make when one person is passing a t/o X which implies their trumps don't split very well. Imagine how many they'd make if trumps did split!
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#14 User is offline   han 

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Posted 2008-May-23, 10:15

I edited the post Justin quoted. As I went through the hands more carefully my conclusions also changed.

I made some blatant mistakes the first time. For example, once west had: 10xxx A AK AKQ108x. Believe it or not, that was one of the hands where 3HX made with overtricks :(.
Please note: I am interested in boring, bog standard, 2/1.

- hrothgar
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#15 User is offline   bid_em_up 

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Posted 2008-May-23, 10:27

benlessard, on May 23 2008, 02:58 AM, said:

3S. Partner going to play me for a 5-5 or 5044. Any 6 card suit i can introduce naturally at the 3 level is a suit that i would have preempted at the 2 level. With a weakish suit I would have preempted or pass all the way.

X is risking to enplayed partner into pass.

QJx
Qxxx
KQx
Ax xx

3Hx making & 4S making.

Not sure how you think 3H is making if partner holds that hand. Sure its possible, but its also unlikely.

In the meantime, Double.

Support for all other suits, and if partner has a penalty double of 3H, wonderful.
Is the word "pass" not in your vocabulary?
So many experts, not enough X cards.
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#16 User is offline   jdonn 

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Posted 2008-May-23, 10:41

han, on May 23 2008, 11:15 AM, said:

I edited the post Justin quoted. As I went through the hands more carefully my conclusions also changed.

I made some blatant mistakes the first time. For example, once west had: 10xxx A AK AKQ108x. Believe it or not, that was one of the hands where 3HX made with overtricks :).

On the overtrick example in your big post we go for 500 or 800 in 3♠ anyway. I think you have clearly shown double is a winner.

It actually taught me something. I didn't think it would be nearly as obvious as it turned out to be, even though I did double.
Please let me know about any questions or interest or bug reports about GIB.
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#17 User is offline   keylime 

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Posted 2008-May-23, 12:21

Red card for me. Easy call, doesn't commit us to playing 3S on a 5-1 doubled.
"Champions aren't made in gyms, champions are made from something they have deep inside them - a desire, a dream, a vision. They have to have last-minute stamina, they have to be a little faster, they have to have the skill and the will. But the will must be stronger than the skill. " - M. Ali
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#18 User is offline   benlessard 

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Posted 2008-May-25, 02:09

What about X vs 3S ? Surely there is some time where 3H x is making or down 1 and 4S makes.
From Psych "I mean, Gus and I never see eye-to-eye on work stuff.
For instance, he doesn't like being used as a human shield when we're being shot at.
I happen to think it's a very noble way to meet one's maker, especially for a guy like him.
Bottom line is we never let that difference of opinion interfere with anything."
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#19 User is offline   CSGibson 

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Posted 2008-May-25, 09:34

benlessard, on May 25 2008, 12:09 AM, said:

What about X vs 3S ? Surely there is some time where 3H x is making or down 1 and 4S makes.

I'm sure there is. That doesn't mean that double isn't both the call that wins most frequently or the call that gets the greatest number of imps long term.
Chris Gibson
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#20 User is offline   benlessard 

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Posted 2008-May-26, 02:29

Just that if i would have done a sim on this hand it would have been between X and 3S not between X and pass.
From Psych "I mean, Gus and I never see eye-to-eye on work stuff.
For instance, he doesn't like being used as a human shield when we're being shot at.
I happen to think it's a very noble way to meet one's maker, especially for a guy like him.
Bottom line is we never let that difference of opinion interfere with anything."
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