[jdonn]

Winstonm, on May 24 2008, 01:46 PM, said:

Anyone who believes Keycard for clubs or diamonds will help is deceiving themself - the critical card for 7 is not the K or Q but the J.

If partner's clubs are KQJxxx then 7 is most likely on.  If partner's diamonds are QJx, then 7D may be on. 

And if you bid 7 and partner has KQxxxx, then you are a jack off and get what you deserve.  

If you bid 2♥ and partner bids 3♣ then doesn't partner have better than KQxxxx (assuming blackwood later reveals the KQ)? There are even hands with like 8 clubs that bid 4♣ over the 2♥ bid. You are right that blackwood is not the answer. Going slowly so we can describe our hands is the answer. Or maybe partner is in a position to use blackwood himself later if we go slowly. Signing off in 6♣ now is one of the alltime truly lazy bids. If you make some forcing bids and nothing exciting happens, the 6♣ card will still be in your bidding box, it's not going anywhere.

BTW, I would want better than A7xx opposite QJx as a trump suit for my grands.

Second BTW, what makes you think you can commit the hand to clubs already? Partner can't have JTxxxx(x)?

[neilkaz]

Go slowly here to see what else PD can show you so you better know whether you can take 13 tricks.

[kenrexford]

Go slowly makes sense as a general rule, but the parameters of what we know so far offer little help, it seems.

We have started with a non-Walsh 1♦. OK. Now, we have bid some major, picking one for some reason of theory, probably hearts. Partner bids 3♣.

What now? Maybe bid 3♠? 3♦ and 3♥ would surely be natural, so 3♠ as some sort of punt action? So, what if we hear 3NT? If we want to use RKCB for clubs, we better mention them, so 4♣.

Great. So far, we have bid every suit, and partner has shown something. Now, we have a weak club focus. God help us if partner takes over. He will expect a spade control with club support, not a stiff.

So, we get lucky and heart some diamond cue or something.

It just seems that pussy-footing around gets us nothing except a possibility that we lose the ability to use RKCB in clubs, or partner takes over (bad idea), or somebody gets confused about what is happening.

I just don't see any real way around that problem. With clubs, you cannot even get into any sort of last train slam bidding, either. Evemn if you could, partner will probably look at his diamond secondaries (because of the brilliant 1♦ start).

So, can we rely on partner to have a seventh club or the Jack? Or, in another way of putting it, can be exclude KQxxxx and sufficiently unlikely?

I cannot imagine how. Partner will be known to have the KQ of clubs and the spade Ace. He needs one more card to open, and I might have the methods to find that nice heart Queen. That's 11. That's enough. So, give partner ♠Ax ♥Qx ♦xxx ♣KQ10xxx. Should he rebid 2NT? Maybe. But, what about ♠Axx ♥Q ♦Qxx ♣KQ10xxx. 3♦? 2♠?

If I don't have methods to check on the heart Queen, it seems worse. I'm not sure what that method will be, in a safe auction that I can control.

[jdonn]

kenrexford, on May 24 2008, 08:55 PM, said:

Go slowly makes sense as a general rule, but the parameters of what we know so far offer little help, it seems.

We have started with a non-Walsh 1♦.  OK.  Now, we have bid some major, picking one for some reason of theory, probably hearts.  Partner bids 3♣.

What now?  Maybe bid 3♠?  3♦ and 3♥ would surely be natural, so 3♠ as some sort of punt action?  So, what if we hear 3NT?  If we want to use RKCB for clubs, we better mention them, so 4♣.

Great.  So far, we have bid every suit,

No we haven't. And agree with the auction so far, great start (through your 4♣ bid over 3♣).

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and partner has shown something.  Now, we have a weak club focus.  God help us if partner takes over.  He will expect a spade control with club support, not a stiff.

If he is good enough to take over then you are almost sure to have a grand anyway. wtp?

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So, we get lucky and heart some diamond cue or something.

Great! Keycard time! wtp!

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It just seems that pussy-footing around gets us nothing except a possibility that we lose the ability to use RKCB in clubs, or partner takes over (bad idea), or somebody gets confused about what is happening. 

Now, for the first time in your life, on an auction that isn't even remotely complicated yet, you are worried about a misunderstanding? Where is the logic in this argument anyway. You are saying since we might not (and therefore might) be able to bid keycard in clubs by going slowly, we should jump to 6♣ right now.

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I just don't see any real way around that problem.  With clubs, you cannot even get into any sort of last train slam bidding, either.  Even if you could, partner will probably look at his diamond secondaries (because of the brilliant 1♦ start).

Bidding slam without last train? My word!

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So, can we rely on partner to have a seventh club or the Jack?  Or, in another way of putting it, can be exclude KQxxxx and sufficiently unlikely?

I cannot imagine how.  Partner will be known to have the KQ of clubs and the spade Ace.  He needs one more card to open, and I might have the methods to find that nice heart Queen.  That's 11.  That's enough.  So, give partner ♠Ax ♥Qx ♦xxx ♣KQ10xxx.  Should he rebid 2NT?  Maybe.  But, what about ♠Axx ♥Q ♦Qxx ♣KQ10xxx.  3♦?  2♠?

2NT on your first example. Whether 2♠ or 3♦ on your second he certainly won't bid 3♣. I think you are simply proving how well this auction works. Btw if partner makes a terrible 3♣ bid on either of those hands you reach 7NT which is over 50%.

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If I don't have methods to check on the heart Queen, it seems worse.  I'm not sure what that method will be, in a safe auction that I can control.

Who says you need it? A 7th club. Or diamond king. Or spade break. Or heart finesse. Or squeeze. Oh yeah, or that heart queen after all.

[kenrexford]

One clarification, jdonn. I would use RKCB. I did not mean to suggest that I would not. However, I don't think that I would bid 4♣, as this is not calculated to help me. I would just blast 4♠ (out-of-focus major) after 3♣. As the answer would be two with, or 5♥, I have no space to ask any further question.

If I start with 4♣, I might be able to hear a diamond or heart cue, after which I can bid 4♠ and be in the same situation. The cue was neat, nice to hear, but meaningless.

If I bid 4♣ and partner asks questions, he will think KQxxxx is enough, errantly.

So, I seem stuck.

Now, maybe Opener should have KQJxxx or a seventh club for his 3♣ bid. If so, this is a no-brainer. I'm just not so sure that repeating clubs confirms a seventh club or three of the top four honors. I suppose that this is the money question. (If you cannot say 100% that it shows 7, then what about theory or the rest of the hand makes KQJxxx right for 3♣ but not KQ10xxx, KQ9xxx, or KQxxxx?)

[jdonn]

kenrexford, on May 24 2008, 09:34 PM, said:

Now, maybe Opener should have KQJxxx or a seventh club for his 3♣ bid. If so, this is a no-brainer. I'm just not so sure that repeating clubs confirms a seventh club or three of the top four honors. I suppose that this is the money question. (If you cannot say 100% that it shows 7, then what about theory or the rest of the hand makes KQJxxx right for 3♣ but not KQ10xxx, KQ9xxx, or KQxxxx?)

I don't think it's 100%, I simply think the odds are huge. Try to construct such a hand for him. Maybe it's possible but there aren't many examples.

[Winstonm]

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No we haven't. And agree with the auction so far, great start (through your 4♣ bid over 3♣).

Why are we using Gerber?

[Winstonm]

So we bid RKCB and find out that partner holds: Axx, x, KJ, KQxxxxx

Do we want to be in grand without the club Jack?

[jdonn]

Winstonm, on May 24 2008, 11:13 PM, said:

So we bid RKCB and find out that partner holds: Axx, x, KJ, KQxxxxx

Do we want to be in grand without the club Jack?

So you range from 68% if his clubs are KQ65432 to 100% if they are KQJTxxx, and you don't want to be in a grand? When they other table is in slam 100%?

[kenrexford]

Let's see. Thinking out loud...

If partner has seven clubs, with the K-Q, he has five other cards. The opponents do too. So, the odds that partner has the Jack are 50-50. The slam fails half of the time that the Jack is not going to fall in three rounds. Something like that. Add in do-I-have-the-10 factors, 5-0 splits.

If partner actually has six clubs, what likelihood of KQxxxx? What percentage of KQJxxx fail? 10's and 9's?

I can't work out the numbers here... Any reasonable analyses of the likelihood of clubs providing no losers?

[Winstonm]

jdonn, on May 25 2008, 12:32 AM, said:

Winstonm, on May 24 2008, 11:13 PM, said:

So we bid RKCB and find out that partner holds: Axx, x, KJ, KQxxxxx

Do we want to be in grand without the club Jack?

So you range from 68% if his clubs are KQ65432 to 100% if they are KQJTxxx, and you don't want to be in a grand? When they other table is in slam 100%?

Depends on whether or not it makes .

Two discussions here: what is real and what is right. Right says I cannot find out sufficient information to bid a confident grand slam (The assumption being that 68% is not good enough).

Reality is that I had better match the contract at the other table.

[han]

Winston you've been listening to luke warm to much, thinking that you already know what's right.

[Winstonm]

han, on May 25 2008, 12:06 PM, said:

Winston you've been listening to luke warm to much, thinking that you already know what's right.

That's not quite accurate, Han. I don't claim to know what is right, but I am dead certain that whatever you think is wrong, though.