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Suit combination - maybe stupid question. E986 opposite Q105 - avoid two losers

#1 User is offline   cphastrup 

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Posted 2008-April-08, 17:29

Playing in 6NT with 11 top tricks, my partner had this ♥ suit

♥E986 in hand, ♥Q105 in dummy.

Being in 6, he would like 2 tricks from that suit - without losing two in the process :blink: .

What's the best play against moderate (below club average) opponents:
At MPs?
At IMPs?

I calculated the percentages to be something like:
Queen, then 10: 75%
Small to 10, then Q: 78%
Small to 10 and LHO isn't calm enough to duck with Kx ;-): 84%

(I am not completely sure about these numbers.)
All this is not including lead, opps showing out when reeling of long suit etc. A priori stuff.

Cheers,
Claus
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#2 User is offline   fred 

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Posted 2008-April-08, 19:03

Quote

Queen, then 10: 75%


This should be 76%.

You can do a little (less than 1%) better by leading the 10 instead of the Queen - if RHO shows out you can go up with the Ace and lead toward the Queen.

Quote

Small to 10, then Q: 78%


I think this is wrong too. Should be 74% plus the odds of LHO holding stiff King (a little over 1%).

Fred Gitelman
Bridge Base Inc.
www.bridgebase.com
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