[Gerben42]

Quote

HCP = 12

Ehh... 11

[awm]

Depends on partnership agreements obviously, but in most cases I would pass. In some versions of strong club system I would open.

I played recently for the first time with a very good player who likes to open these hands without a lot of discussion. We went down three when I forced game on a twelve-count with three-card support. Teammates were not amused.

[inquiry]

Gerben42, on Mar 31 2008, 12:30 PM, said:

Quote

HCP = 12

Ehh... 11

I knew i should take my shoes off to finish counting my points....

I had the pleasure of playing in a match with all gold stars, except for me and my partner. Although everyone assured me my partner was a many times champion in Turkey. On the first hand, I got to open 1NT with my balanced 17... problem was, I had 19... forgot to take my shoes off then too...

Hand was a push, i was down in 1NT, our opposition played in 4♥ also down one. Partner very kindly simply said.. "from now on, 15-17 for 1NT"

The good news is that was the only clear mistake and we won handily. I suspect many people would have left the table after their partner opened 1NT with 19 or asked that their idiot partner be replaced with someone who knows a little about the game....

Ok, 11 so it is 25 ZARS.. .still have spades, so i open.

[matmat]

inquiry, on Mar 31 2008, 02:35 PM, said:

I had the pleasure of playing in a match with all gold stars, except for me and my partner. Although everyone assured me my partner was a many times champion in Turkey. On the first hand, I got to open 1NT with my balanced 17... problem was, I had 19... forgot to take my shoes off then too...

So would this, then, make open toed shoes a mechanical aid?

[han]

awm, on Mar 31 2008, 01:08 PM, said:

I played recently for the first time with a very good player who likes to open these hands without a lot of discussion. We went down three when I forced game on a twelve-count with three-card support. Teammates were not amused.

You were in game with 23 HCP and only an 8-card fit? I expect your teammates were fuming!

[Apollo81]

LOL

I think I know this hand; is this from the Silver Spring sectional? We opened a 10-12 NT with it and played in 2N after an..uhh..amusing auction.

[pclayton]

Jlall, on Mar 31 2008, 12:45 PM, said:

I think you should all try an experiment. Open all 10+ point hands with 5 spades at your next club game when you are NV. Don't tell your partner you are going to do this. I bet collectively you will get very good results.

Opening a hand like this just puts you in a ton of situations where you can go -50 or -100 instead of minus something bigger, or (less frequently) where you can go +120 or +110 instead of +50 or +100. This will happen far more imo than going down because you get too high in a constructive auction.

I will report back Wednesday.

[y66]

Is this from the Silver Spring sectional? Yes, Saturday morning game.

Pard (North) passed in first with that hand (per our agreed opening style), East opened 1N with a 14 count and something like xx KQ8x Ax AJxxx, I passed with AQ ATxx xxxx QT9 or so and then 2 more passes.

East's decision to open 1N won the board since we can make something our way. Don't think pard can balance there either (we play DONT).

This one goes in the + column for jlall's experiment.

[helene_t]

Mr. Dodgy, on Mar 31 2008, 04:11 AM, said:

Apparently, if I'm playing with Csaba or Helene, as I sometimes do, I might have to rethink this and Pass - but I usually play somewhat unusual systems (e.g. EHAA) with them so I might have other options - it probably qualifies as a 1NT (or 2♠) opener.

No, opening this hand is fine if you
- have discussed it with p - I, for one, am happy to agree to open this one when nonvulnerable in 1st seat, even playing standard - or
- have not discussed it but believe in Justin's experiment.

It's just that I was assuming that we in principle open on the basis of rule of 20. We can agree on something else of course, then we might even cater for lighter openings.

Anyway, this is all academic since this is a wtp 1NT opening playing EHAA.

[Cascade]

I open - its not minimum

[rogerclee]

Playing a middle-of-the-line 2/1 style, I would open this 1♠ only NV at MPs. I am a big fan of opening 1M whenever possible at this form of scoring and vulnerability.

[Apollo81]

Jlall, on Mar 31 2008, 06:01 PM, said:

y66, on Mar 31 2008, 04:48 PM, said:

This one goes in the + column for jlall's experiment.

Maybe, they will probably either X or overcall 2C, and you will probably get to 3N, but you will probably make it given that they have bid.

See Adam, sometimes you get to game opposite a 12 count and make when you just have 11!!!

we were +180 which was 17/21, +150 would be 13.5, 400 & 430 are 18 & 20 respectively

[skjaeran]

Cascade, on Mar 31 2008, 11:55 PM, said:

I open - its not minimum

Absolutely agree. I'd never dream of passing this... had to be a nightmare, and we really lost the board after i passed.

[awm]

Jlall, on Mar 31 2008, 03:45 PM, said:

I think you should all try an experiment. Open all 10+ point hands with 5 spades at your next club game when you are NV. Don't tell your partner you are going to do this. I bet collectively you will get very good results.

Opening a hand like this just puts you in a ton of situations where you can go -50 or -100 instead of minus something bigger, or (less frequently) where you can go +120 or +110 instead of +50 or +100. This will happen far more imo than going down because you get too high in a constructive auction.

So I thought this would be a good subject for bridgebrowser, especially since Justin is suggesting this to everyone in the B/I area, so it's not like he's saying this will only work if you are a world class declarer or will only work if you play some weird system.

I looked for hands where dealer has 5♠(332) shape, 11 hcp exactly, and 3 controls (in order to eliminate very quacky hands or the AK+A combo that a lot of people upgrade). This also happens to specify 25 ZAR points (making Ben happy I suppose). I specified the dealer to be NV, and looked for the average results at both MP and IMPs.

MPs:

Initial Pass happened 1719 times, averaged 48.66% with standard deviation 0.67.
Open 1♠ happened 954 times, averaged 52.02% with standard deviation 0.99.

So it looks like opening 1♠ is a small net winner at MP. Of course, these things are always biased a little bit because of people who have special systemic agreements, but I suppose that these are probably a small minority of the BBO field.

IMPs:

Initial Pass happened 1924 times, averaged +0.05 IMP with standard deviation 0.12.
Open 1♠ happened 1200 times, averaged -0.10 IMP with standard deviation 0.17.

It seems like passing is a small net winner at IMPs, although the difference is extremely small and quite close to the margin of error.

There were a few other opening bids (i.e. 1NT presumably weak, 2♠) but not enough of them to really conclude anything.

[jdonn]

awm, on Apr 1 2008, 12:51 AM, said:

Initial Pass happened 1719 times, averaged 48.66% with standard deviation 0.67.
Open 1♠ happened 954 times, averaged 52.02% with standard deviation 0.99.

Speaking as someone who doesn't normally open this hand, isn't that two different ways of saying that there is a 95% chance opening it is better than passing it?

[helene_t]

I think Adam means standard error, not standard deviation. Standard deviations on matchpoint results are typically 30% or such, corresponding to a standard error of some 0.7% by 1719 samples and 1% by 954 samples, this is roughly consistent with Adam's numbers.

As for Josh's conclusion, no, if opening scores 52% on average then the probability that opening is better than passing is not far from 52%. Somewhat more than 52% because the MP scores for the two decisions will be correlated, i.e. a good players tends to score above 50% whether he opens or passes.

[Gerben42]

Quote

Initial Pass happened 1924 times, averaged +0.05 IMP with standard deviation 0.12.
Open 1♠ happened 1200 times, averaged -0.10 IMP with standard deviation 0.17.

What about 1NT?

[jdonn]

helene_t, on Apr 1 2008, 04:41 AM, said:

As for Josh's conclusion, no, if opening scores 52% on average then the probability that opening is better than passing is not far from 52%. Somewhat more than 52% because the MP scores for the two decisions will be correlated, i.e. a good players tends to score above 50% whether he opens or passes.

What I meant was there is a 95% chance that opening it averages a better result in the long run than passing it, given that both results are 2 standard deviations away from 50%. I wasn't saying it will work better 95% of the time. Of course if they aren't standard deviations, as you say, then never mind.