[Mbodell]

Scoring: IMP

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Contract is 7S from the N.

Opening lead is a low diamond to the A♦ pitching a ♥.
You cash two top trumps and one opponent shows out on the second round and pitches a ♦.

Line A:
Cash the third top trump, cross to the Q♥, pitch another ♥ on the K♦, finesse the Q♣.

Line B:
Cross to the Q♥, pitch Q♣ on K♦ (or delay this to after the ♥ ruff - either way), ♥ to the A, ruff a low ♥, back on the A♣, drop the last ♠ and claim.

[karlson]

There's a third line -- run the trumps and cross back to the HQ to play for c-h squeeze (even a double is reasonable if we ruffed a diamond along the way (say at T1)).

I'm pretty sure I would take line B regardless of who has the spades. Isn't this basically any 3-3 and almost half the 4-2 breaks? I have to admit I don't see why it matters who has the long spade.

[karlson]

You know, I take it back. Line C has to be as good as line B (one wins if the long heart has the long spade, and one wins if the long heart has the ♣K), and there's the added chance of a diamond threat, as well as the fact that we can postpone our decision until we see all the pitches.

[cherdano]

karlson, on Mar 28 2008, 02:18 PM, said:

There's a third line -- run the trumps and cross back to the HQ to play for c-h squeeze (even a double is reasonable if we ruffed a diamond along the way (say at T1)).

I'm pretty sure I would take line B regardless of who has the spades. Isn't this basically any 3-3 and almost half the 4-2 breaks? I have to admit I don't see why it matters who has the long spade.

Yes but the squeeze is better. If you just play for the ending with ♥AKx opposite ♣J ♦x ♥x you win
- when hearts split 3-3, and
- every time the long hearts are with ♣K OR with 5+ diamonds.

[karlson]

It takes me just a little while to figure these things out sometimes

[cherdano]

karlson, on Mar 28 2008, 02:39 PM, said:

It takes me just a little while to figure these things out sometimes

You still beat me

[TylerE]

You know hearts aren't good, because the hand was posted

[jdonn]

TylerE, on Mar 28 2008, 05:40 PM, said:

You know hearts aren't good, because the hand was posted

Maybe not at first, but they have to keep king of clubs, and someone has to keep diamond length, and maybe they make a mistake...or maybe they were breaking all along!

BTW I would have played low on the lead and ruffed it, I think this improves squeeze chances since if diamonds are 5-3 either way, one must be ruffed to make sure the 3 can't guard the suit.

Seems easy to see this is the best line. The club finesse line is 50%. The other lines both make if hearts break, but if they don't the heart ruff line needs specifically 4-2, with the length being with the 3 trumps. The squeeze line could have hearts 5-1 or 6-0 as well as 4-2, and the length needs to be with either the king of clubs OR 5+ diamonds. It also is the only line that gives the opponents much chance to make a mistake, they might just unguard hearts when they aren't supposed to. Without going into calculations, this is clearly best.

I see now I was preaching to the choir hehe.