Hi Charis,
Don't give up, you are think the right kind of thoughts, although thinking so many of them they might be getting in your way.
Let's forget about partner's signals now for a second (he has sent two suit preference ones, but you may or maynot need them yet). (The idea of this post is that defense is a partnership game and you and your partner have to work together, so you WILL need signals from him).
First, you are right that your partner has cashing
♠s, good inference from bidding. So you don;t need to assume about the
♣AKQ, if partner had a big
♣ he would have grabbed the second round of that suit. Your partner played the
♣2 on the second round of the suit...so he has an odd number, leaving declarer with exactly four
♣.
So you know he had 7 black cards, and thus only 6 red ones. His distribution (barring a singlton
♥ will be 3
♠3
♥3
♦4
♣ OR 3
♠2
♥4
♦4
♣.
Here you have a problem.... Declearer to get to his 20ish hcp, must have one of the red kings (as you summized). If he has
♥AKx and you throw a
♥, he can cash his
♣s then win
♥AK and duck a
♥ to you to set up the
♥JACK. HE will therefore win 4
♣+1
♦+3
♥+1
♠ = 9 tricks. So you would have to throw a
♦. On the otherhand, if he has the
♥A without the king, but holds 4
♦'s, if you throw a
♦, he will try the
♦hook in an effort to win 3
♦ tricks to go along with 4
♣+1
♠+1
♥ for 9 tricks. The
♦ hook will lose, but now his 4th
♦ is good because of your discard.
So in fact, if you are playing alone (no help from partner), this is indeed a guess. You have to decide which card to throw, and if you guess wrong you hand declarer his contract on a silver platter. This is where your partner can help. Looking at that dummy, if your partner has a
♥ entry, he will be telling you about it. Now, did he in fact have anything to say? This is where suit preference signals come into play. The dummy with the
♣JT9x, you can recognize partner's
♣8 as his highest spot card. On the run of
♣, after playing the 2 for count, he could play either the 8 (his highest) or his middle card. The eight seems to suggest a
♥ entry.
What about the play in the
♠ suit. Your partner had the
♠T98x when you returned the suit. He could have headed the
♠7 with the 8, 9 or T and returned teh suit (like you, he knows declearer has only 3
♠. The normal play would be win the 8, return the T. His play of the cards in such an unusual order should have suit preference implications as well. The way I play it, if I play an usual card first, then the normal card I should have played, it conveys a suit preference signal. So by playing an unnecessarily high card on the second round (the ten), then showing I had the sequence, it shows value in a higher suit. By playing a lower card first (the 9) then return the normal card I should have won on the second round (the 8), it would express values in a lower suit. Some would suggest winning the 8 then returning the TEN when any card would do suggest a
♥ entry (return something other than the TEN without it). This is fine too, and I would speculate that was the meaning, but the Ten then the eight is clear.
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It would be nice if partner let us know his entry and/or gave us some help on the count. Maybe he did?
He did.. he gave two signals for
♥ and he gave the
♣ count. He is working hard for you over there... "-)
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If he returned a low spade instead it would suggest the KD instead (hmm, but why let declarer know that)
Because if your partner has the
♦K, you will need to hold onto 4
♥'s... He is letting you know what to do, sadly declearer gets to watch these signals too, and sometimes that helps him. :-)
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So I must hold all diamonds and toss the heart.
Tada... hope the time it takes gets shorter and shorter with use....