Suit combination
#1 Guest_Jlall_*
Posted 2008-February-07, 11:31
1) Your RHO is a very good player who views you as not a good player.
2) Your RHO is a very good player who views you as a good player.
3) Your RHO is a bad player.
In all cases your LHO is a bad player who you have not seen give count yet, and you don't think they know what count is.
Now assume the play goes: CQ, small small ten. CA, small small small. Cx, small, ???
You now ask what their carding is and are told standard.
How do you play the suit?
Now assume the play goes: CQ small small small. CA small small ten. Cx small ??
Again you are told standard carding.
How do you play the suit?
#2
Posted 2008-February-07, 11:51
#3
Posted 2008-February-07, 12:05
In all cases but perhaps the last, had the 10 appeared on the second round, and with no other info at hand, it seems normal to finesse against the J on round 3.
So by deciding, in any of the scenarios, to play for the drop, I am allowing RHO's order of play from 10x to determine my line, and I won't do it.
If RHO is a good player, then no way am I giving him the satifaction of deflecting me from the technically correct line. If he is a really bad player, then his 10x line suggests doubleton anyway.
The last scenario, in which a bad player plays x10 is a little more interesting, and would be even more interesting if he had played xJ. However, I am still hooking, because I really don't want to lose to J10x against a bad player. Had he played xJ, I would have hooked, if I felt he was truly bad.
#4
Posted 2008-February-07, 12:13
The one scenario I can think of where you *might* play for the drop is if he thinks you're bad and plays Tx. If he thinks you're bad then he may think you'll believe his count signal, and he may think you will play QAK as your "normal" line. Also remember his partner is bad so if he held Tx maybe he thinks you had Qxx and led the Q and his bad partner ducked with AJxx. He wont play the ten from Tx here I dont think, but even with all this crap it is a close decision..
#5
Posted 2008-February-07, 12:16
#6
Posted 2008-February-07, 12:32
I think if RHO sucks (or isn't imaginative), and played x - T, I would probably hook and play restricted choice. If this same player played 10-x, I would definitely go for the RC.
If RHO is good and think I suck (which is most good players) and played T - x, I would play RC, since it appears he it trying to trap me into a losing line. If he played x - 10, I'd be a little more suspicious, but I imagine I'd still hook, but its close.
If RHO is good and thinks I'm good it probably doesn't matter what he plays.
#7
Posted 2008-February-07, 12:34
#8
Posted 2008-February-07, 13:07
If RHO sucks I'll play for drop come x-10 but not 10-x since this is such an obviously odd way to play for him because...well... he sucks.
If RHO is good and thinks I'm good I'm always hooking. Mirror comments in the form of 'what does it matter?' and 'restricted choice.'
#9
Posted 2008-February-07, 13:33
#10
Posted 2008-February-07, 17:55
I believe that the USA currently hold only the World Championship For People Who Still Bid Like Your Auntie Gladys - dburn
dunno how to play 4 card majors - JLOGIC
True but I know Standard American and what better reason could I have for playing Precision? - Hideous Hog
Bidding is an estimation of probabilities SJ Simon
#11 Guest_Jlall_*
Posted 2008-February-07, 18:01
gnasher, on Feb 7 2008, 01:16 PM, said:
yes
#12 Guest_Jlall_*
Posted 2008-February-07, 18:28
Do you feel that you are not good enough to exploit RHO more often than he can exploit you (not intended to be an insult btw, greatly respect some of the people who said this)? Is this because your skills are much more technical than psychological? Or you feel like you have no edge and you will waste energy pointlessly?
Effectively you have 2 options here:
-Play unexploitably with a strategy that wins against the most possible holdings regardless of what RHO is doing.
-Play exploitably with a strategy that loses if RHO outwits you, but if you get into his head then you will exploit him.
For me choosing option B is always my choice. At the very least I would THINK about using option B before saying "whatever, I can't figure out what he's thinking, I'll just go with the normal play." I am surprised you just categorically write off trying to do this.
Similarly if I were to play rock/paper/scissors for money I would not use a random strategy, I would try and think 1 level above my opponent. In fact my win %age in online rock/paper/scissors is about 75 % so I'm sure this is a better strategy for me than playing randomly.
My thinking on this is that if RHO is good and thinks you are not good you have a great advantage, he is underestimating what level you will think on. It seems very simple to me that RHO is playing the T and then small with JTx only because he thinks you will believe his count. If he thinks you're bad he's never going to put you on the level of "this guy would never give count with Tx, thus he has JTx" and thus think you will play for the drop. Similarly he will be too scared to play T from Tx because he will think you are going to believe his count. T from JTx is especially blatant since he may be scared if he played J then small you will place him with the ten for his jack play.
Some irrelevant thoughts that have come up:
If he thinks you aren't watching his carding then anything he does is irrelevant so he must assume you are watching his cards and try to exploit your level of thought.
If he thinks his partner isn't watching his count that is irrelevant, his goal is clearly to mess with you not to signal his partner. After all he is good.
Also, if RHO is bad you should be able to exploit his low level of thought. It's likely he just gives count too much to signal his partner. No bad player is going to think of playing T from JTx. So you can be confident in your finesse (I know you are making a normal play anyways).
Most interesting is if RHO respects your play. Then I would guess that T then small is most likely to be from Tx. With JTx he will expect to score it playing normally, so likely T from Tx is to get you to think "no way he'd ever play T from Tx and tell me the position, thus he must have JTx and be trying a baby falsecard on me...I'll show him!" So I'd think that you should just hook.
#13
Posted 2008-February-07, 21:54
It is interesting, though, that in this example the only case that Justin gains an edge is when RHO is a good player who thinks declarer is a bad player. It seems to me that in real life, for a number of posters here, and Jlall more than most, it will be pretty rare (if ever) that this condition is met.
#14
Posted 2008-February-07, 22:03
However, after seeing this nonsense play, my character is such (admittedly, not proud) that I would laugh at the table upon seeing the pip as the second card, noting thereby how silly this play has been. I'd then go with the odds and finesse, because either play by RHO is equally dumb. He either made a nonsense and unnecessary falsecard or he jeopardized the entire suit, either way stupid.
Of course, I'd also find 10 from J10x stupid as possibly giving up a trick. I mean, assume K98x opposite Qxx. Small to the Queen loses to the Ace. Might declarer double-hook the suit? Of course he might. Playing the Jack or Ten takes away a losing option from Declarer.
So, no matter how I assess this thing, I cannot see how the parameters of the question are plausible. How can RHO be a "good player?" Or, am I missing something here???
-P.J. Painter.
#15
Posted 2008-February-07, 22:11
IF the RHO is a good player, and IF he knows that I must have at least the Ace, then playing the top honor from two is absurd. So, he must have J10x. But, he must also deem me an idiot. As that assessment is not implausible, I might play for the drop. However, I might also loss-leader this thing and make him keep thinking I am an idiot, and gullible, if that might help me more in the long run on a different hand.
-P.J. Painter.
#16
Posted 2008-February-07, 22:49
If he has the ten and not the jack, then on the first round I could have QJx.
If I have QJx, I have several ways to play it. One would be to play the queen, and when it rides, finesse the 9. I don't think that's worse odds than playing Q, then J taken by the ace, then finesse later.
So I don't think Tx is possible if he plays the ten on the first round, because it might cost a trick. So therefore I can play for the drop. It's one thing to be cute, it's another thing to be cute when it could cost a trick.
Or am I to assume that he knows my holding?
#17 Guest_Jlall_*
Posted 2008-February-07, 22:51
#18
Posted 2008-February-07, 23:04
Jlall, on Feb 7 2008, 11:51 PM, said:
Good point.
So, why am I advertising my holdings here?
If I play Ace first, I might have Axx, in which case playing the 10 or Jack would be suicidal if from 10x/Jx. Playing the Ace somewhat forces honesty from Hx, but it allows foolishness from J10x. Playing the Queen allows foolishness from any holding.
I suppose that I was missing something. Your Queen play may have been a deliberate attempt to induce a "tricky play" from RHO because of a suspicion of his character???
-P.J. Painter.
#19
Posted 2008-February-08, 10:03
Jlall, on Feb 7 2008, 07:28 PM, said:
Do you feel that you are not good enough to exploit RHO more often than he can exploit you (not intended to be an insult btw, greatly respect some of the people who said this)? Is this because your skills are much more technical than psychological? Or you feel like you have no edge and you will waste energy pointlessly?
.
For me, it is a combination of these factors.
There are times, especially against players I know to be weak, that I will indulge in psychologically motivated ploys instead of the best technical line, but I am far more comfortable with my technical skills than my table-presence.
Against the bad opps, I am not going to depart from my normal line unless I think he is truly weak. Against the strong player, I am simply not going to risk his mindgame working on me. The downside to his mindgame working is worse, in my view, than the upside of my outsmarting him.
And, I think that engaging in spy v spy headgames is generally a waste of energy.
I guess if I spent more time playing poker, I'd acquire the skills to read the opps more... not a shot at anyone who plays poker... btw... but that is a game, so I am told, in which this aspect of the game is more important than at bridge.... and there are times when I wish I had more confidence in my table presence.
#20
Posted 2008-February-08, 10:06
I have no idea whether a good player who thinks I'm a bad player would vary this, so again I'd just go with the odds.
It's dangerous to try to get inside the head of a very bad player - you might not be able to find the way out again. Against a clueless RHO, I would play him for 10x in either case, partly because of the odds, and partly because with J10x he would tend to play low-jack rather than low-10 or 10-low.
Conversely, if he played low-J, I'd at least think about playing him for J10x. Mostly, though, I'd think about why I was playing in an event where this person was allowed to play, and how long it was until the next break.
There is another category of player, who has read some books but doesn't really understand what he has read or how to apply it, who will tend to play the jack or 10 from J10x because he knows that in some situations this is a mandatory falsecard, but isn't up to working out that this isn't one of them. Against such a player, if he played a high one on the first round I would play him for J10x, and if he played low-high I would play him for Hx.