[bhall]

Scoring: MP

4♥ by S. ♦AK led,
encouraging signals from E

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I don't have an answer for this one. At MP, should you go for both ♣ and ♥ favorable for 12 tricks, or try to combine chances by playing on ♠ for 10 or 11 tricks? Maybe ruff ♦ exits out of RHO's hand? What about 4-1 trump splits? How should your play change at IMPs?

The opponents know you're 6-5 on the auction (1♠-2♣-2♦-2♥-2N-3♥-4♥), and they are competent defenders.

[pclayton]

I'm not going to set up clubs. I've been tapped once already and I'll have to tap myself at least one more time. If clubs aren't 3-3, I think this the wide open line will result in failure.

My initial reaction is to set up the board.

3. ♠A
4. ♠Q, etc..

No hurry to ruff diamonds in my hand - if I do I might lose control if they offer a ruff-sluff. I think this is the best chance for 12 tricks and gives me 11 under most layouts.

[bhall]

Well, ♣ 3-3 or doubleton Q is 52%, ♠ finesse is 50%. And why not lead to the ♠Q?

[jdonn]

I would play on clubs breaking. You are in a normal contract on a normal lead, I think you are just supposed to play for the maximum amount of tricks as long as it involves the most likely breaks in your suits. If you play on spades you are settling for 11 tricks at best.

[pclayton]

bhall, on Nov 17 2007, 10:30 AM, said:

Well, ♣ 3-3 or doubleton Q is 52%, ♠ finesse is 50%. And why not lead to the ♠Q?

52% assuming trump are 3-2 (actually its higher).

It seems to me that if clubs aren't 3-3 / Qx, this hand will turn into a disaster by playing on clubs. I assume you'd start ♣A, ♥to K, ruff ♣, ♥Q. To get back to our hand we have to ruff a diamond which makes us trump tight with the defense. We draw our last trump and try the clubs.

If clubs behave we get 12 tricks. If clubs don't, we have taken 1♠, 1♣ ruff in dummy, 5 trump and 2♣'s (9 tricks). Maybe we can take a spade in the wash for 10 but they'll probably manage to take 2 diamonds, a club and a spade with accurate defense.

Playing on spades keeps things under much better control. I think we even have chances against 4-1 trump splits. I'm not a lock for 12 tricks since RHO can hold off covering from Kxxx but I like my chances for 11.

When LHO leads out the ♦AK, I think we can eliminate that hand holding 5♦'s. What is RHO encouraging with? Q-5th? I don't think we can read much into the lead, but there are hands where LHO holds the ♠K and he'd find some call over 1♣ (I assumed we opened 1♣).

Its a complicated hand and I don't think I'd take fault with anyone that tried either line.

[bhall]

I think your limit is 11 tricks on this line. Suppose RHO covers the ♠Q and you ruff. There are still 2 losing ♦s in dummy and a small spade (which may not be good). You could play a ♣ to the A, ♥ to hand, pitch a ♦ on the ♣K, but now your only entry to dummy is in trump. If ♥s split, that will leave a losing ♦ in dummy, and maybe a losing ♠.

If you go for ♣s and they fail with RHO holding ♣ length, you can try to ruff out RHO's diamond and throw him in for 10 tricks, always assuming that trump break. The problem comes when LHO is 4-4 in the minors with the ♣Q. Then RHO can preserve a ♦ exit.

The auction started 1♠-2♣, so there is little indication about high-card location.

[pclayton]

bhall, on Nov 17 2007, 11:47 AM, said:

I think your limit is 11 tricks on this line. Suppose RHO covers the ♠Q and you ruff. There are still 2 losing ♦s in dummy and a small spade (which may not be good). You could play a ♣ to the A, ♥ to hand, pitch a ♦ on the ♣K, but now your only entry to dummy is in trump. If ♥s split, that will leave a losing ♦ in dummy, and maybe a losing ♠.

If RHO is kind enough to cover the spade early, I can play:

5. ♣A
6. Ruff diamond
7. ♣K, pitch ♦ (the last)
8....trumps and claim.

The spade might not be good, but it will be 62% of the time.

[bhall]

pclayton, on Nov 17 2007, 03:15 PM, said:

If RHO is kind enough to cover the spade early, I can play:

5. ♣A
6. Ruff diamond
7. ♣K, pitch ♦ (the last)
8....trumps and claim.

The spade might not be good, but it will be 62% of the time.

No, after you ruff the ♦ you are down to the ♥AK and no dummy entry other than a ruff with the ♥Q. You have previously ruffed a ♦ and a ♠.