[Apollo81]

I think I would run the ♥J.

A possible alternative is to lead the ♦K, ruffing whether it is covered or not, and play for the drop in hearts. If it is covered, you will succeed when LHO doesn't have 3+ hearts to the Queen. If it is not covered, you succeed when the ♥Q drops. Without respect to the probable singleton lead, the plays look about equal to me assuming LHO always covers the ♦K when he has the ♦A. With the lead, I think LHO tends to have the long hearts so the finesse is better.

Feel free to correct me

[cherdano]

Apollo81, on Jun 1 2007, 01:05 PM, said:

With the lead, I think LHO tends to have the long hearts so the finesse is better.

With the lead, LHO tends not to have ♥Q?

Good luck team Lall!

[whereagles]

After 2 mins of thinking, I think I'll need 3-2 hearts, in which case I can just play ♥AK and setup the clubs.

Seems too simple, but I'm a simple guy

[Apollo81]

cherdano, on Jun 1 2007, 03:26 PM, said:

Apollo81, on Jun 1 2007, 01:05 PM, said:

With the lead, I think LHO tends to have the long hearts so the finesse is better.

With the lead, LHO tends not to have ♥Q?

Good luck team Lall!

LHO led an outside singleton so tends to have longer hearts than RHO. What was confusing about this?

[cherdano]

Apollo81, on Jun 1 2007, 01:54 PM, said:

cherdano, on Jun 1 2007, 03:26 PM, said:

Apollo81, on Jun 1 2007, 01:05 PM, said:

With the lead, I think LHO tends to have the long hearts so the finesse is better.

With the lead, LHO tends not to have ♥Q?

Good luck team Lall!

LHO led an outside singleton so tends to have longer hearts than RHO. What was confusing about this?

Of course you are right, but sometimes defenders don't lead a singleton (esp. in dummy's side suit) when they have the trump queen, hoping to score a natural trump trick instead.

[Apollo81]

Keep in mind that it's quite likely that spades are 4-4 here since no one bid them (and opps have about half the HCP), so that gives LHO eight probable red cards.

[whereagles]

Jlall, on Jun 1 2007, 07:35 PM, said:

whereagles, on Jun 1 2007, 02:31 PM, said:

After 2 mins of thinking, I think I'll need 3-2 hearts, in which case I can just play ♥AK and setup the clubs.

Seems too simple, but I'm a simple guy

then if you don't drop Qx of hearts you will lose 1 heart 1 club and 2 spades?

oops, miscounted my losers.

lol

[rbforster]

If you're afraid of the Q♥ offside, I'd run the Q♦ pitching a spade at trick 2, and then play hearts from the top if it holds. Of course if the A♦ is offside I'm going down more than one on the club ruffs. The fact that LHO lead our suit does seem to suggest he might have both missing A's...

[Fluffy]

♦K Will win when ♦A onside 3-2 and either ♥Q drops, or RHO has 3 cards

♥J wins when ♥Q onside, given the lead this is below 40%.

♥AK when ♥Q drops also below 40%



Sometimes LHO has just 2 clubs, wich increases the first 2 lines.


I'd run ♥J.

[skjaeran]

I'll follow Noble's plan and just finesse trumps. This caters for ♥'s 4-1.

[paulg]

skaeran, on Jun 2 2007, 08:34 AM, said:

I'll follow Noble's plan and just finesse trumps. This caters for ♥'s 4-1.

I've agreed with Harald on all three problems ... which should worry him

Paul

[FrancesHinden]

I believe the lead is a singleton if dummy has shown hearts and clubs.

I don't believe holding the HQ would put off LHO from leading a singleton: the ideal is that you make a trick with the HQ and then get your ruff. It's also possible the opening leader has four trumps - leading a singleton (or what may look like a singleton) is a good way to stop the opponents safety-playing a trump suit.

Back the play of the hand.
I don't see the point of running the DK. If it loses on my right we are going off.
If LHO has the DA he covers. If I discard from dummy they just play two rounds of spades forcing dummy and I need the HQ to be doubleton to make. If I ruff in dummy I can't get back to hand to take the pitch, so I cash two rounds of hearts first and play a club. Now I need the HQ doubleton or the singleton club to have only two hearts. So running the DK seems to need the DA onside PLUS something good in hearts. That has to be worse than simply taking the heart finesse.

Taking the heart finesse has the simply benefit of making the contract everytime the HQ is onside, even if hearts are 4-1. I really can't see anything better.

(I assume you'd have given us the C9 if we had it)

[Sambolino]

we got some more info underlying here - LHO rates to have ace of diamonds cos RHO didn't x 2D. also LHO didn't interfere over 1n weak with (5431)/(6331) with 3 hearts and 1 club being dangerous combination for running diamond honor covered (our club entry to hand is doomed). maybe this is still not much but i may begin to think that cJ was from QJ(x); case of club doubleton is irrelevant, so what if RHO is singleton in clubs? again critical distribution of 31 in h's and clubs - but this time the line of running d(covered) than AK of trumps, than club - will succeed. also, if dK is not covered i guess i'd ruff it and play hearts for the drop. i'd also take good care of tempo of bidding and play etc.

then i'd probably tell to myself to stop this nonsense and run hJ

[Halo]

Sambolino, on Jun 2 2007, 11:58 AM, said:

then i'd probably tell to myself to stop this nonsense and run hJ

Obviously not nonsense, but as you say, you do have to play a card, and your vote was for running Jack of Hearts.

It may be a personality weakness, given the strength of arguments, but I would not run the Jack of Hearts.

I would play King of Diamonds.

[skjaeran]

cardsharp, on Jun 2 2007, 11:24 AM, said:

I've agreed with Harald on all three problems ... which should worry him

Paul

I'm not a worrying guy, besides, I don't know you Paul, so why worry?

[Apollo81]

Jlall, on Jun 2 2007, 06:16 PM, said:

My opp had this hand, I was really surprised when she elected to take a ruffing finesse in D (covered) then played AK and a heart. I thought just taking a finesse was normal.

Assuming you always cover her line succeeds in 20 positions in the heart suit 1/2 the time and 11 positions the other 1/2 the time. Finessing succeeds in 15 heart positions. Since the ones where finessing works are more likely that is the right play, but it's not that antipercentage to play her way.

[Halo]

Apollo81, on Jun 2 2007, 07:18 PM, said:

Jlall, on Jun 2 2007, 06:16 PM, said:

My opp had this hand, I was really surprised when she elected to take a ruffing finesse in D (covered) then played AK and a heart. I thought just taking a finesse was normal.

Assuming you always cover her line succeeds in 20 positions in the heart suit 1/2 the time and 11 positions the other 1/2 the time. Finessing succeeds in 15 heart positions. Since the ones where finessing works are more likely that is the right play, but it's not that antipercentage to play her way.

If you believe the Jack clubs is a singleton (or probably is), finessing must be right. If you make no assumptions, I think King of Diamonds is (at least?) as good.