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Scoring: MP

---

W  ___N  ___E  _____S
1♥  _Double _PASS  _1♠
2♥  __3♠  _PASS  __PASS
4♥  __PASS  _PASS  __?

What's your standard here and what kind of MINIMAL hand is expecting your partner?

[hatchett]

Obvious pass.

[inquiry]

Pass.

I expect partner to have a great hand. But if he had one strong enough to bid game opposite this tripe, he would have bid game himself.

[whereagles]

echo inquiry's post, except that I'd change "would" to "should"

[Apollo81]

You have basically a balanced 0 count and you're concerned that you should have done something here?

[SoTired]

You are not seriously thinking about bidding 4S here? I pass. My ♥Qxx is not enough to threaten 4H. If partner had 4 tricks, partner would have doubled.

But if someone held a gun to my head and said, "Bid something", I would dbl.

[bid_em_up]

Apollo81, on May 31 2007, 10:01 AM, said:

You have basically a balanced 0 count and you're concerned that you should have done something here?

Assuming partner and opponents are competent, there are two ways to look at this.

You can look at it the way other posters do (an obvious pass), or you can listen to the bidding and then decide. I think it is a closer decision than they are claiming. In fact, I think I can make a pretty good case that pass is wrong, and the decision is between 4S and double.

The first key point is this is listed as an MP problem, not IMP. No matter what we do, its just one board. At MP, pass is never going to win on this hand.

Partner has shown a good hand, but one that is not quite capable of bidding game on his own. Since we passed 3S, he certainly is not making a forcing pass now, he already knows we could not bid four.

He would double 4H if he thought he had it beat in his own hand. He probably should have doubled 4H, if he actually had his 3S call. At the moment, I cannot think of a hand where he can double, then jump raise, and not have enough defense to be able to beat 4H. Its possible he could have one, but I can't think of one.

If 3S was making, which quite likely on the bidding, we will have to beat 4H by 3 tricks undoubled to outscore 3S. If we double now, we only have to beat it by two.

If 4H is making, 4S is at worse, off two (I think, but bad trump breaks could cause it to be more), so we win the board. 4S also may make. In either case, there are two chances to win the board, by bidding 4S, whenever 4H is making.

If 4S is making, and 4H is going down, then not doubling 4H or not bidding 4S is a loss. Doubling 4H may not be a great result, but it will not be as bad as simply passing. I also think that if 4S makes, partner has misbid his hand.

We do have Qxx of hearts and a doubleton diamond. It is probable that we are scoring at least one trick in trumps, even though partner should be expecting nothing from us. It is also likely that dummy is also short of entries for declarer to finesse hearts thru us.

I fully expect to beat 4H. So it comes down to, how likely are we to make 4S? With the bad spade suit, no entries, and we know that LHO is going to be short in spades, I do not think 4S is likely to make.

So I double. If I am wrong, oh well, next hand. But, at worst, assuming 4H makes, you have turned what was probably already a below average board into a zero. The loss on the hand will be minor. You stand no chance of improving your score by passing since 3S maknig would outscore 4H -2 undoubled. Even worse is you still don't outscore 2S making by passing......

[jdonn]

Obviously not going to bid 4♠. The only reason I want to consider double is the auction, how could opener think he is making if he bid only 2♥ the second time? Obviously he thinks he is saving so on that basis I almost want to double. But honestly I think he is going to get a better dummy than he expected, and he is going to guess the hearts, so I pass and just hope to beat him.

To bid_em_up, I see your point about the auction and as you can see I sort of agree. But I don't think that saying it's matchpoints it's only one board pass won't win the board etc. is a good reason to double. For one thing I don't think 50 and 100 will score that differently anyway. But on top of that I don't understand the mentality that we need a great board every hand. I think of it like a cash game in poker. You don't need to try to win all the money every hand, you just do the best you can each hand with what your situation gives you. If that means accepting a possibly lousy score because the risk of making it worse isn't worthwhile, then fine. Getting 3/12 instead of 0/12 is just as useful as getting 9/12 instead of 6/12 on a board.

[jdonn]

Jlall, on May 31 2007, 12:21 PM, said:

jdonn, on May 31 2007, 11:37 AM, said:

Obviously not going to bid 4♠. The only reason I want to consider double is the auction, how could opener think he is making if he bid only 2♥ the second time? Obviously he thinks he is saving so on that basis I almost want to double.

You do have a partner you know. If partner cannot X them on this auction and you have 0 tricks I don't see how you can.

WDP to snip out the next sentence where I stated that I don't double! Why didn't you quote the person who actually did double and shoot him down instead lol.

[helene_t]

jdonn, on May 31 2007, 06:37 PM, said:

Obviously not going to bid 4♠. The only reason I want to consider double is the auction, how could opener think he is making if he bid only 2♥ the second time? Obviously he thinks he is saving so on that basis I almost want to double. But honestly I think he is going to get a better dummy than he expected, and he is going to guess the hearts, so I pass and just hope to beat him.

A similar situation happened to me during the Onstein Pinkster Patton last weekend. Indeed, declarer got a better dummy than he expected. Also, declarer had a hand that most people would have opened with a Namyats, or rebid 4♥ at first oportunity.

But there's one more thing: You must trust partner, not opps. Partner knows what you (as a minimum) have and he decided to pass. So you must pass as well unless you have significant extras.

[bid_em_up]

jdonn, on May 31 2007, 11:37 AM, said:

Obviously not going to bid 4♠. The only reason I want to consider double is the auction, how could opener think he is making if he bid only 2♥ the second time? Obviously he thinks he is saving so on that basis I almost want to double. But honestly I think he is going to get a better dummy than he expected, and he is going to guess the hearts, so I pass and just hope to beat him.

To bid_em_up, I see your point about the auction and as you can see I sort of agree. But I don't think that saying it's matchpoints it's only one board pass won't win the board etc. is a good reason to double. For one thing I don't think 50 and 100 will score that differently anyway. But on top of that I don't understand the mentality that we need a great board every hand. I think of it like a cash game in poker. You don't need to try to win all the money every hand, you just do the best you can each hand with what your situation gives you. If that means accepting a possibly lousy score because the risk of making it worse isn't worthwhile, then fine. Getting 3/12 instead of 0/12 is just as useful as getting 9/12 instead of 6/12 on a board.

Josh, it isn't a poker mentality of having to win every board. I am a firm believer in usually playing for average+ and taking good scores as they come. In this case, I believe we are saddled with a very poor score if we simply pass.

If I thought 4H was a normal contract, I would agree with you. I don't think 4H is a normal contract, unless LHO is walking the dog. If he is, he got me, but assuming partner is competent and will have his X then 3S call, then like you, I don't think LHO is bidding 4H to make. If 4H is making, your likely result is not 3/12 but 0/12 or 1/12, imo. You pushed LHO into it (or LHO got lucky in his decision). In any case, you cannot expect it to be a "normal" contract. Doubling costs you nothing. A zero is still a zero, right?

It is this point that is key, imo. There is absolutely nothing to lose, whether 4H is doubled or not when it makes. You already have a zero when it makes, you may as well try to improve when 4H doesn't make, but 3S does.

I think the normal contract will be 3S making. In this case, you will again be winning a minimal amount, if anything, when you simply pass. If 3S is making, 4H -1 or 2 undoubled will win very little. I think 3/12 is a high estimate, but I will concede it for the time being. Doubling 4H at least gives you the chance to beat any other pairs who did not X 4H and only beat it 1, tie the pairs who did double it, and assuming you beat it two, not only will you outscore the pairs who beat 4H two undoubled, but you will also outscore everyone playing 3S.

There is practically nothing to lose by doubling, and a significant amount to be gained and in this case, the rewards of doubling are significant enough to tilt in favor of the double. 3/12 is 25%, but 10/12 (or better) is at least 83.3%. So I am risking 25% for the chance to gain at least 58%. If I am right, I will win more than twice as much as I rate to lose. At worst, I turned a bad score into a zero (so I lost 25%). In the middle, I turned a bad score into an average score (gain 25%) and at best, I turned bad score into a great score (gain 50% or more). In the long run, I expect that a decision to double will win more than it loses.

And I will concede a lot of this also depends on other factors as well. The caliber of opponents, my partner, and how many boards the tourny is will all factor in as well.

Assuming the problem comes from a BBO MP tourny, there is a big difference between one board out of 8 where one zero is 12.5% of your final score and a normal ACBL 24/27 board tourny where one board is only 3.7 to 4.1% of your final score. In a short tourny, you are practically forced to double if your intent is to win. One zero out of 8 boards will kill a good tournament, as it is effectively the equivalent of 3 zeros in a 24/27 board tourny. If this was board 8 of 8, and you had a 65% game in the first 7 boards, and you get a zero on this board, your game is now 56.8%, a significant difference. If it was board 27 of 27 and you had that same 65% game going for the first 26 boards, and get a zero, you still have a 62.5% game. Not as good, but certainly nowhere near as bad.

If I see you, Justin, Mikeh or Fred bidding 4H on this auction, I probably pass. If LHO is some random player, I double.

If my partner happened to be you, or Fred or Justin, I pass. I will expect you to already have doubled 4H whenever you had your bids. Opposite a random BBO player or unknown partner or a partner that I know to be weak, timid, etc., you are practically forced to double to protect your side, imo. As I said, I cannot think of a hand where partner can double and bid 3S, and yet he is unable to beat 4H. Can you? (It is possible, I am sure....but it is also highly improbable). If partner doesn't have his bid, well, thats his problem. (Of course, I rarely have this problem and I doubt you do either.....as it is unlikely either of us play with people we don't know already). If partner "knows" he doesn't have his 3S call and that 4H is making (as he rightfully should from our failure to raise to 4S), he should pull the double, imo.

Overall, I still think the double will win. I do not doubt that it can lose on this particular hand.

[jtfanclub]

bid_em_up, on May 31 2007, 01:22 PM, said:

I cannot think of a hand where partner can double and bid 3S, and yet he is unable to beat 4H. Can you?

AKJxx
x
AJx
AJxx

LHO is bidding on some crud like

void
AKJTxxx
Kxxx
xx

and it's RHO who has been stymied at every turn with

Qxxx
xx
QTxx
KQx

Plenty of points to do something, but not over your X or 3♠ bid.

I can mix the stuff up as much as you want, but it comes down to LHO being a hair too strong to open at the 3 level and very short in spades, while RHO has a balanced good hand but no bids over your interference. LHO thinks he's sacricifing...until he sees dummy.

Just what I thought of offhand.

[helene_t]

Jlall, on May 31 2007, 09:01 PM, said:

from what i gathered bid_em_up will X opposite:

random opps, and a random partner.

Lol, as a statistician I always consider other people to be random.

But I would still pass. Even random partners deserve a little bid of respect. Not a lot of respect, maybe, but the universal declaration of human rights still applies.

[jdonn]

bid_em_up, on May 31 2007, 01:22 PM, said:

Josh, it isn't a poker mentality of having to win every board.  I am a firm believer in usually playing for average+ and taking good scores as they come.  In this case,  I believe we are saddled with a very poor score if we simply pass.

If I thought 4H was a normal contract, I would agree with you.  I don't think 4H is a normal contract, unless LHO is walking the dog.  If he is, he got me, but assuming partner is competent and will have his X then 3S call, then like you, I don't think LHO is bidding 4H to make.  If 4H is making, your likely result is not 3/12 but 0/12 or 1/12, imo. You pushed LHO into it (or LHO got lucky in his decision).  In any case, you cannot expect it to be a "normal" contract.  Doubling costs you nothing.  A zero is still a zero, right?

Your entire assumption seems to be heavily based on 3♠ making, else we certainly don't have to double them if they are down 1. Why shouldn't 3♠ be down considering we effictively have nothing?

Txxx Qxx xx xxxx
AKQx xx KQJxx KQ

3♠ is certainly justified since it seems partner essentially just needs one trick for game. But it is going down on either a heart promotion or possibly diamond ruff most of the time. Meanwhile on our hands and the auction, 4♥ certainly could be down but could just as easily be making. I don't think if 4♥ makes it's an awful board, I will beat what could be quite a few tables where the auction went 4♥ X P P P. Of course it's only one of many examples, but I think it is easily demonstratable both that 3♠ may have been down (so 4♥ undoubled down is already good) and that others may be in 4♥ (since opener's hand could likely be opened 4♥ at some tables.)

[asc]

Partner's hand is

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and we RECEIVE 3 tricks( no ♠) ♥1 and ♦2. The result is -420 =
11%.

[the hog]

Quote JTFanclub:
"and it's RHO who has been stymied at every turn with

Qxxx
xx
QTxx
KQx

Plenty of points to do something, but not over your X or 3♠ bid. "

This is a hand impossible for rho to hold. With this rho will 1S over the X!

This posted hand is an obvious pass over the 4H bid. I can't believe anyone would even contemplate bidding on.
Partner's 3S bid is barely acceptable. The J of S is a wasted card and the Q likely also. The K of H is wastepaper. Actually I would bid 1S over 1H rather than X.

[jtfanclub]

The_Hog, on May 31 2007, 06:04 PM, said:

Quote JTFanclub:
"and it's RHO who has been stymied at every turn with

Qxxx
xx
QTxx
KQx

Plenty of points to do something, but not over your X or 3♠ bid. "

This is a hand impossible for rho to hold. With this rho will 1S over the X!

Really? I hadn't even considered it. The hand is so defensive in nature, and it's such a bad suit, I'd wait for the partner of the Xer to respond and then double it.

Would most people bid 1♠ with this hand?