[pclayton]

1.

Scoring: MP

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We missed a good sac here. The bidding at our table:

East....South....West....North
1♦...1♥...1♠...4♥
5♦...5♥...AP

(1♠ promises 4+)

Clubs were 6-1, Spades were 4-1, so even with the club ruff, 6♦ x'd is only -1 or -2. 5♥ is -650.

Any thoughts on who should take the push?

2.

Scoring: MP

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You reach an excellent 6♦. LHO leads the ♠2.

Even though its matchpoints, it is doubtful anyone else in the room will be in this contract, so plan the play trying to guarantee 12 tricks.

If you lay down the ♦A, both opps will follow with small spots.

[Apollo81]

2.

I strongly suspect that LHO led a singleton spade. I would:

win ♠K
cash ♦AQ
♥AK pitching a club
ruff a heart
cash last diamond if needed
♠AQ pitching clubs

Now if hearts were 4-3 I can ruff a spade back to hand and give up a heart, then claim.


There aren't that many lines that make when LHO has 1 spade and 3 diamonds, and I really think that's what's going on.

[keylime]

Hand 1: I think East should offer the sac via 4NT to show both minors but with emphasis on diamonds, then backdoor into 5S to pattern out. Pard with A-x-x will do the right thing if spades are shortish.

[Apollo81]

Hand 1: I think East (opener) has bid his hand and that West (responder) needed to take another call over 5♥.

[Apollo81]

Jlall, on May 30 2007, 11:24 AM, said:

Apollo81, on May 30 2007, 10:21 AM, said:

2.

I strongly suspect that LHO led a singleton spade.  I would:

win ♠K
cash ♦AQ
♥AK pitching a club
ruff a heart
cash last diamond if needed
♠AQ pitching clubs

Now if hearts were 4-3 I can ruff a spade back to hand and give up a heart, then claim.


There aren't that many lines that make when LHO has 1 spade and 3 diamonds, and I really think that's what's going on.

I don't understand the order you made your plays in, it seems unneccessary since you can just pull trumps and then play AQ of spades pitching clubs then heart heart heart ruff, ruff back to hand, give up a heart and claim. Your line totally gives up on 4-3 spades and risks some weird things like 6-1 hearts for no reason.

I suppose if hearts were 7-0 (no Lightner) then I am down. I suppose I also lose if LHO started with 6 hearts and 1 diamond.

edit: obviously your line is a couple percent better

[jdonn]

West if anyone should sac, east has already bid quite a lot and could be too high in 5♦ for all he knows.

[Fluffy]

Wouldn't do this at the table, but most players would lead ♣A If they held it after declarer has a 2 suiter, and dummy a long suit, maybe just playing 3♦ and then finese ♣ is the simplest and best line.

[mike777]

Trying to find a sacrifice of down 2 that is winning in practice and not just in theory vs a making 5H seems like a lot of our limited energy to use up at the table.


I suppose in theory you could try LOTT and FTL
LOTT=estimated 22 total tricks. 10D+11H+one for long suit. If 5H is making 6d is down one.

FTL for ew hands=13-2-0=11 tricks.
13=total tricks
-2=estimated combined 2 shortest suits for EW
0=estimated 19-21 whcp...if 18 then we are making only 10 tricks.

FTL for NS hands=13-2-0=11tricks
13=total tricks
-2=estimated combined 2 shortest suits for NS
o=estimated 19-21 whcp.

[jtfanclub]

Jlall, on May 30 2007, 10:19 AM, said:

hand 2: Ace of diamonds queen fo diamonds. If diamonds are 2-2 I'll make 7 if either major suit splits. If diamonds are 3-1, diamond to dummy, AQ of spades pitching 2 clubs.

It seems like there ought to be a better way to play it if diamonds are 3-1 but LHO has the 1.

AQ of diamonds, K of hearts, ruff a heart, AQ of spades sluffing clubs, at that point you know if spades are splitting, don't bother pulling the last trump, just ruff out the hand. Should work unless RHO has a singleton spade.

You could handle that too, if you took AK of diamonds instead of AQ. But that causes problems when diamonds are 3-1 the other way.

Hmmm...I don't suppose the spots tell me? Nobody dropped the 8, right?

[pclayton]

1.

I had the 7 diamonds. I'm conflicted on this one, because if spades were 3-2, or clubs were 5-2 or better with the Ace on, we'd be congratulating ourselves on pushing them to the 5 level and beating them a trick. This was exactly the purpose of 5♦: "I don't know if they are making 4♥, or 5♥, but I also don't know if we are making 5♦; lets let them guess". But note that in either of those cases, 5♦ appears to be making, so 5♥ is a good sac over our making 5♦!

If the A♣ is off, the sac looks more profitable, even if spades are 3-2. If spades are 4-1, and the ♣A is off, they look to be making 6♥, although they'd never bid it.

6♦ x'd will probably be a good sac even against 4♥, although I can't imagine anyone in their right mind passing with my hand at green over 4♥.

Who should take the push?

I've been mulling over the meaning over a double by the 6=2=3=2 hand. At these colors, perhaps it should mean: "I want to bid 6♦, but if you have a little extra defense, lets take our chances in beating 5♥. If you have great ODR, 6♦ looks cheap". North certainly has the option of bidding a direct 6♦ with something like: Kxxxxx, xxx, Axxx, void. I wouldn't think that our vul / not opponents are bidding like idiots (even if they are), and when was the last time you had a 'pure' penalty double as the responder here? I suppose pass is non-committal, and expresses doubt about our chances in 6♦ (maybe its 800?, maybe we are beating 5♥?)

What would a double by the 5♦ hand mean? Is it "I expected to make 5♦, and I can't afford to give up -200 to our likely -400"?

What should 4N mean? I know that its played as great diamonds and secondary clubs (although I would take issue with Dwayne here, I don't think this 7-4 qualifies), but perhaps it should signify either a hand that wants to sac in 5♦, versus a direct 5♦ that expects to make, or come close, but doesn't expect to gain a big profit off of 4♥ x'd.

In the LA regional a few months ago, we played a former WC and his protege. The auction went:

3♦ - double - 4♦ - 4♠
double.

The protege alerted the double as "He has a hand that wants to bid 5♦ (extra ODR or some positive re-evaluation), but he's doubling in case I'm trapping with 4♦".

This is a very interesting treatment, and I'm wondering how there are similar applications, including the subject hand.

[pclayton]

2.

At the table I played K♠, A♦, Q♦. AK-♥, ruff a heart (also getting the news that hearts were 5-2 with the length on my right). My reasoning was if hearts were 4-3, I can simply take the club pitches off the ♠AQ, and concede a heart.

I still had the chances that the ♣ was right. So I ruffed the heart, and pitched the baby hearts on the spades and led up to the ♣K.

I calculate my line at close to 80% (re-thunk). I'm cold if trumps are 2-2. With trumps 3-1, I still make if hearts are 4-3, or if the ♠ drops doubleton or tripleton, or if the A♣ is onside. I even have chances with 4-0 trump.

Justin's line appears to benefit when spades 4-3, but gives up on finding the ♣A onside. A.P., spades will break better than a finesse.

I gave the hand to Chris Larsen this morning. He played ♠K, ♦A, ♦K, ♠ruff, ♦Q, ♥AK, ♥ruff, ♠A. This appears to me to take advantage of all 4-3 major splits, and the ♣A on.

By the way, it takes an anti-% line to make. LHO is 5=2=3=3 and RHO is 2=5=1=5 and the ♣A is offside. Some sort of crossruff is needed since LHO has the long spades and RHO has the long hearts. You can't cater to everything on this hand.

[Halo]

My view is that...

After two rounds we know about the diamond Jack (lets say it is still out there).

Playing for 43 in either major is about 85% of the remaining space.

Third heart overruffed is about 15% of the same remaining space.

The lines seem on these assumptions, more or less identical (unless I've made a mistake of course!).

[Fluffy]

What is the exact percentage of 4-3 and 5-2?

[Halo]

43 is 62.18 and 52 is 30.52, but the second 43 is slightly influenced by the first, and 2 in East is influenced by the fact he has three diamonds while West has one (I assume that way round or there would be no problem).

I like to to do these things in my head, and I am not up to the precise compensating calculations so I rounded for an approximate answer.