[pork rind]

contract 4 S
opening lead jD
which line offers the best odds on making 4S. opps silent thruout

---

[SoTired]

have 4(+) losers and must avoid 1... cannot avoid 2♣ losers so some kind of endplay will not help

So I try all my best chances... duck diam, finesse spades...if both lose, then only chance is both ♣A and ♥K onside to avoid 2 club losers

[pclayton]

Duck the diamond. If it loses, fall back on spade finesse and ♣A onside (as sotired suggests).

If the diamond wins, our chances are enhanced and we are up to 9 tricks. I would cash A♠, ♦A and exit a spade. We win if East has ♠Kx, or either has ♠K singleton. This only loses if East has specifically ♠Kxx.

If West wins the ♠K:

----Rise with the ♥A, ruff a heart and double hook clubs.

----Duck the club return and East is endplayed.

[starfruit]

Might be a good idea to ask for their cardings : Some play that the ♦J lead denies a higher honor.

In that case you should rise with the Ace and play a ♠ down. . . then guessing what to do. I think I'll try the ♠A and if it fails, probably to try a ♥ finesse to get rid of a♦, later trying a double finesse in ♣.
You risk going 2 down for this line, but you might want to note that if you do lose a ♦ chances are pretty dim.


However, if the lead does not deny ♦K, probably best to finesse as if it works your chances are much better.

If the ♦Q does take a trick, I'd play along elimination + throw in line as mentioned by pclayton.

[pclayton]

starfruit, on Jan 30 2007, 10:20 AM, said:

Might be a good idea to ask for their cardings : Some play that the ♦J lead denies a higher honor.

In that case you should rise with the Ace and play a ♠ down. . . then guessing what to do. I think I'll try the ♠A and if it fails, probably to try a ♥ finesse to get rid of a♦, later trying a double finesse in ♣.
You risk going 2 down for this line, but you might want to note that if you do lose a ♦ chances are pretty dim.


However, if the lead does not deny ♦K, probably best to finesse as if it works your chances are much better.

If the ♦Q does take a trick, I'd play along elimination + throw in line as mentioned by pclayton.

I would assume the poster would have indicated if it the opps play coded leads.

This is one of those cases where it can't hurt to ask at T1 though, since you aren't giving anything away with the question.

[mikeh]

starfruit, on Jan 30 2007, 01:20 PM, said:

Might be a good idea to ask for their cardings : Some play that the ♦J lead denies a higher honor.

In that case you should rise with the Ace and play a ♠ down. . . then guessing what to do. I think I'll try the ♠A and if it fails, probably to try a ♥ finesse to get rid of a♦, later trying a double finesse in ♣.
You risk going 2 down for this line, but you might want to note that if you do lose a ♦ chances are pretty dim.


However, if the lead does not deny ♦K, probably best to finesse as if it works your chances are much better.

If the ♦Q does take a trick, I'd play along elimination + throw in line as mentioned by pclayton.

This is a valid point, and one reason I refuse to play these honour leads: they do so much work for declarer... to my way of thinking, the info given to declarer costs far more than can be made up for by giving (the same) info to partner.

[pork rind]

this was a pretty strong game so i should have pointed out that there is virtually no change of the k of diamonds being underled.
i made the hand by rising with the a of hearts, laying down the a of spades ( i seem to remember that with 3 out u have 48 percent or so of the k being single). when the k of spades doesnt fall i finessed the h and pitched a d.
i wondered if combining the a of spades play and the h finesse increased your odds.
not that i play by odds. but i was curious.

tom

[pclayton]

pork rind, on Jan 30 2007, 03:40 PM, said:

this was a pretty strong game so i should have pointed out that there is virtually no change of the k of diamonds being underled.
i made the hand by rising with the a of hearts, laying down the a of spades ( i seem to remember that with 3 out u have 48 percent or so of the k being single). when the k of spades doesnt fall i finessed the h and pitched a d.
i wondered if combining the a of spades play and the h finesse increased your odds.
not that i play by odds. but i was curious.

tom

You shouldn't infer that LHO wouldn't make a lead from ♦KJT. If the leader's hand called for an aggressive lead then this would be a normal lead.

Banging down the ♠A before hooking the heart is an interesting combination play, but I don't think its % at all.

[pork rind]

[Winstonm]

mikeh, on Jan 30 2007, 04:45 PM, said:

starfruit, on Jan 30 2007, 01:20 PM, said:

Might be a good idea to ask for their cardings : Some play that the ♦J lead denies a higher honor.

In that case you should rise with the Ace and play a ♠ down. . . then guessing what to do. I think I'll try the ♠A and if it fails, probably to try a ♥ finesse to get rid of a♦, later trying a double finesse in ♣.
You risk going 2 down for this line, but you might want to note that if you do lose a ♦ chances are pretty dim.


However, if the lead does not deny ♦K, probably best to finesse as if it works your chances are much better.

If the ♦Q does take a trick, I'd play along elimination + throw in line as mentioned by pclayton.

This is a valid point, and one reason I refuse to play these honour leads: they do so much work for declarer... to my way of thinking, the info given to declarer costs far more than can be made up for by giving (the same) info to partner.

You are in good company - this is exactly what Bob Hamman said in his book, "At the Table" and showed a hand where this lead convention allowed Wolffe to make 3N while 1N failed at the other table.

[whereagles]

This probably has a mathematical solution, but I can't figure it out at table, so I'll just use tactical considerations. I find it unlikely that LHO has the diamond king, so I'll just rise with the ace and play another diamond.

[FrancesHinden]

pork rind, on Jan 31 2007, 05:29 AM, said:

baloney when u know lho has 9 to 11 pts you should infer that he will never lead j from kj10 unless hes an idiot or an amateur. and he has to have at least 1 club honor for u to make it it doesnt help if he has the a of clubs either. u still lose 2

at any rate im not interested in what a poor player would lead. i was trying to find if anyone has any idea what is the best percentage line to play the hand

You neglected to give us the auction so sadly we have no idea whether a good player would lead from the KJ10 of diamonds or not.

But many very good players make aggressive leads, and KJ10 is certainly a suit I would lead from. Unless the auction screams for a passive lead, then given the choice of J10 of diamonds or K10 of hearts I would often lead a heart which makes your line (playing for LHO to have HK instead of DK) very poor indeed.

I am an amateur but by no means an idiot.

[paulg]

FrancesHinden, on Jan 31 2007, 12:59 PM, said:

I am an amateur but by no means an idiot.

Another one for the 'British understatement' file!

[kenberg]

Some percentages are probably beyond computation on the fly, but the percentages for a stiff king, given three outstanding cards, can be worked out easily enough althought there are some wrinkles.

Call the missing cards Kyz. There are 8 ways to lay out these three, or any three, cards in the opposing hands. Each way is (almost) equally likely. Two ways involve stiff kings. However, after you lead a spade from the board and rho follows with a spot, there is only one possibility for a stiff king. So the issues is not "stiff king?" but "stiff king on the left?". The a priori odds of this are about 1/8, or 12.5%.

Small wrinkle: It is not precisely correct that all 8 arrangements are equally likely. Each of the six 1-2 arrangements is slightly more likely than each of the two 3-0 arrangements because the remaining 23 cards in the opponents hands are more likely to be split 12-11 than 13-10.

Bigger wrinkle. Suppose the exact cards are K83 and rho plays the 8. What are you to make of that? No doubt a strong player, if holding two spots with or without the king, would play the two spots "randomly". Eg the higher spot when he holds an odd number of clubs, the lower otherwise. Just some algorithm that allows no useful inference from the spot played. If he has a pattern, and if you think you know what it is, the odds will change. For example, playing against a wooden player no doubt the play of the 8 denies the 3, making a singleton K on your left an impossibility.


Added: Further wrinkle: Suppose you lead a spot from the board, rho plays a spot. You have ruled out some of the original eight possibilities. Clearly rho does not hold a void, nor does he hold the stiff king. But the other six possibilities are all live with nothing to indicate which is actually the layout (assuming that with two spots he plays them randomly). Only one of the possible layouts involves a stiff king on the left. So at the time you must choose, putting up the ace will be right one time in six. Not a favorite. Another way of looking at this: After you lead from the dummy, there are two situations when all is clear: If rho shows out, you will be losing to the king. If rho plays the king, that's nice. In the other six cases a spot will be played and you must choose. The ace is heavily against the odds.



Now how would I play it? I do not regard it as certain that the king of diamonds is to my right (unless they are playing coded leads, which I assume they are not) but I think I would still hop up with the ace. I lead a spade from the board and finesse. If the finesse wins and lho follows I cash the ace of spades and lead the diamond. I have nine tricks in the bag and if rho holds the king of diamonds he has to give me my tenth. If the finesse wins but lho shows out, I still lead the diamond. rho is in (I hope) and must lead the spade to avoid giving me a tenth trick (since seven spade tricks are certain). I then draw the last trump and start on the clubs, leading the ten. If covered, I cover and claim ten tricks. If the ten rides to a quack I ruff the D return and lead another club. If it loses to another quack, too bad. Actually I am not dead yet. If I lost twice to QJ tight the opps cannot cash the club ace and so I may be able to get my tenth trick from the hearts. I can do this without risking an extra undertrick: Win the D return and run spades squeezing lho whenever he holds the club ace and the king of hearts.

Of course the spade finesse might lose. Now I have three losers on top, and more perhaps later, but I still have the potential for ten winners before they collect four tricks. Seems I need the ace of clubs and the king of hearts to be favorably placed. Not likely, but not hopeless.

This may not be optimal but it sounds reasonable. But to assume that only an idiot would lead the J from KJT at trick one is, imo, rash. My thinking would be that holding JT9 the lead of the J is almost certain, holding KJT the lead is very possible but not certain. This makes it more likely than not that the K is to my right.

[pclayton]

pork rind, on Jan 30 2007, 09:29 PM, said:

baloney  when u know lho has 9 to 11 pts you should infer that he will never lead j from kj10  unless hes an idiot or an amateur.  and he has to have at least 1 club honor for u to make it    it doesnt help if he has the a of clubs either.  u still lose 2

at any rate im not interested in what a poor player would lead.  i was trying to find if anyone has any idea what is the best percentage line to play the hand

I love threads like this.

1. Post a play problem.

2. Demonstrate how you made an inspired play, based on a questionable inference that a player couldn't hold a certain card.

3. When your logic is refuted, characterize a person as an 'idiot' or an 'amateur' that would make that play. But whatever you do, don't try to make your point with facts, God forbid.

Quote

this was a pretty strong game so i should have pointed out that there is virtually no change of the k of diamonds being underled.

My regular 'game' has a couple of World Champions in it. How bout yours?

[kenberg]

Having thought a bit more, I follow the rest in playing low T1. Might work, and a fair number of chances if it doesn't.

Here is my favorite "idiot" story: Back on OK I joined a game where scores were not recorded in any permanent way (I forget what this format was called) and which was advertised as a friendly game. On the first hand we scored well and I found myself disconnected. I thought it a software glitch and got myself back, only to be told by the host I was disconnected because I was an idiot. So much for the friendly game. It's difficult to learn much if you decide that everyone who sees things differently than you do is an idiot.

[pork rind]

my apologies to all. i should not post when drinking

[kenberg]

Have one on me