[the hog]

This occurred at a table my friend was playing at. All the players are very good. The bidding prompted some friendly discussion after the hand.

NV vs Vul
Opps are playing a big C system. 1C = 16+ any
P (1C) 5S

KQJTxxxx
void
xx
xxx

What do you think of your 5S bid?
Would you bid any differently if you had a no void?

[hrothgar]

I have mixed emotions about 5♠

You only have 6 losers. Worst case scenario you're down 4X for -800. If the opponents have slam they're making 980 so this should be a decent enough result. Furthermore, you have VERY solid spades. Yes you're missing the ace, but you have a solid interior. It might be difficult for either of the opponents to try for a penalty. Finally, and this is probably the most important point: You are really jamming their auction. The opponents are going to have a very tough time working out their right level. If they do decide that they want to play a slam, they might very well get the strain wrong (I suspect that your biggest pluses would come about if the opponents stumbled into the wrong slam)

Balanced against this, the Heart suit isn't breaking, which could doom their slam. If the play in Hearts they'll need to deal with a miserable split. if they play in a minor you might be able to make a Lightner double.

Marty Bergen always said that he was happiest when the opponent's competed over his preempts. I think that this is one of those cases. I suspect that i'm going to be a lot happier defending a 6 level contract than playing 5♠ doubled.

So I guess I'm back where I started. i have solid spades. They're going to have trouble converting. I might as well put the screws to them and bid 5...

[pbleighton]

I'm not upset with my 5S bid, as it is reasonable, but I am surprised at it, since I was sure I bid 4S.

Peter

[neilkaz]

I agree with hrothgar's comments about the 5♠ bid here White vs Red.

4♠ is OK, since PD may have enough defence to set a 5 level contract, since I may get a ruff in ♥ or ♥ could split really badly if they play there.

5♠ is quite committal since if the opps don't have a slam, they may just whack it and take the money, how ever it may only be down a couple.

5♠ gains so much when the opps play in the wrong slam and get set when another slam makes and it turns their decision into much guesswork.

5♠ it is for me as well, but I have to admit that I would've had a very hard time bidding above 4♠ at the table.

.. neilkaz ..

[neilkaz]

It is really unlikely that PD has 18 HCP since he passed initially.

Anyhow, if PD is unpassed, I'd just bid 4♠ and let the chips fall where they may.

[whereagles]

There's a high chance opps have a slam (especially since pard passed and people tend to open rather light these days), so I would probably have bid only 4♠, hoping that opps would stop short of a likely making slam.

I have no problems with 5♠, though. Slam might not make, or they might stop to dbl me.

[pclayton]

5♠ is fine, but I'd probably blast 6♠ with this.

[pclayton]

Jlall, on Dec 3 2006, 05:56 AM, said:

Why should the opponents have a slam? Why should they even have a game? Why shouldn't this deal belong to us? Why shouldn't they just double us in 4 even if they can make at the 5 level? I've never really understood the line of thinking that causes 5M preempts (especially spades).

We simply don't have enough information to be bidding 5S. I have 6 points, RHO has 16+, that means partner could have as much as 18 (unlikely but possible). Certainly partner having say 10 points would not be shocking. LHO could be broke, and that too would not be shocking. Partner may well have some heart length and the opps cant make anything. Even if the opps can make something the "normal" thing that happens on this auction is LHO makes a card showing X and RHO passes it since he can't safely compete to the 5 level without knowing much about his partners hand. So basically I hate this bid.

While all this is true, all of it could be very wrong as well. While 4♠ might be our optimal spot, the shape of this hand tells me that we aren't going to buy this for 4♠ anyway.

I don't like 4♠, because partner has a right not to play us for this much offense. Bidding 4♠ and then 5♠ is possible I guess, but I'd rather not give the 5 level to the opponents.

I feel pretty strongly about playing forcing passes at a high level. It makes no sense to let the opponents play their preempts undoubled, and if we start from this premise, a forcing pass can be a valuable tool.

[Codo]

I like Justins comment - well besides pd having 18 HCPs maybe. But 8- ten is possible.
Yes to give them the 5. level makes it easier to explore the right slam. But maybe not as much as they want. If you bid 4 ♠ X pass 5 any, how can they find a better place?
The only possibility is when one of them has a two suiter and the right tools to show it. Maybe not too likely at all at least not more likely then buying the contract for 4 ♠.

[Winstonm]

4S is enough - anymore than that takes the reading of tea leaves - this accomplishes all you are trying to do, which is use up room and make the opponents guess. 4S may be too much, even, if they have no game, but at least it is a reasonable preempt opposite a passed hand pard.

5S is a statement that you know for a fact the bid is right - an imposibility in this auction.

[cherdano]

Jlall, on Dec 3 2006, 03:56 PM, said:

Why should the opponents have a slam? Why should they even have a game? Why shouldn't this deal belong to us? Why shouldn't they just double us in 4 even if they can make at the 5 level? I've never really understood the line of thinking that causes 5M preempts (especially spades).

We simply don't have enough information to be bidding 5S. I have 6 points, RHO has 16+, that means partner could have as much as 18 (unlikely but possible). Certainly partner having say 10 points would not be shocking. LHO could be broke, and that too would not be shocking. Partner may well have some heart length and the opps cant make anything. Even if the opps can make something the "normal" thing that happens on this auction is LHO makes a card showing X and RHO passes it since he can't safely compete to the 5 level without knowing much about his partners hand. So basically I hate this bid.

Do you feel as strongly after considering this is 3rd seat, and thus partner a passed hand? I would bid 4♠, but I am not sure how I would feel about it if I knew the auction would start the same way at the other table, and that my counterpart is bidding 5♠.

[cherdano]

pclayton, on Dec 3 2006, 09:11 PM, said:

Bidding 4♠ and then 5♠ is possible I guess, but I'd rather not give the 5 level to the opponents.

I can live with 4♠, 5♠ or 6♠, but I very much hate this plan.

[mikeh]

I hate 5♠. I agree with Justin's take on the bid. What is there about this hand that says that the opps have a sure slam? Or that they are going to reach it after a more pedestrian 4♠?

Have none of you ever seen a passed hand that contains 2 Aces? Or QJ10x of the suit in which we are void? Etc, etc.

5♠ is a hero bid.... not a bridge bid.

[Blofeld]

mikeh, on Dec 4 2006, 10:29 AM, said:

I hate 5♠. I agree with Justin's take on the bid. What is there about this hand that says that the opps have a sure slam? Or that they are going to reach it after a more pedestrian 4♠?

If you thought the opps had a sure slam, wouldn't you be bidding 6♠ to make them guess about the grand?

I like 5♠ precisely because it won't always be right for the opponents to bid over it, and they can't tell because they've got no room. I strongly disagree with Winston's suggestion that a 5♠ bid is a statement that we know the bid is right.

---

Second choice is 4♠, but I think my third choice is a psyche rather than 6♠.

[Apollo81]

I'd bid 5♠ in a strong game playing opposite a partner that opens aggressively (systemically or otherwise) 4♠ otherwise....

I'd consider a 1♥ overcall too....pard didnt preempt so he can only hang us so high.

[mikeh]

Blofeld, on Dec 4 2006, 11:42 AM, said:

mikeh, on Dec 4 2006, 10:29 AM, said:

I hate 5♠. I agree with Justin's take on the bid. What is there about this hand that says that the opps have a sure slam? Or that they are going to reach it after a more pedestrian 4♠?

If you thought the opps had a sure slam, wouldn't you be bidding 6♠ to make them guess about the grand?

I like 5♠ precisely because it won't always be right for the opponents to bid over it, and they can't tell because they've got no room. I strongly disagree with Winston's suggestion that a 5♠ bid is a statement that we know the bid is right.

---

Second choice is 4♠, but I think my third choice is a psyche rather than 6♠.

On most hands, competent opps will simply double and take the money. And, most of the time, they will be right.

I am sure that, if we did a simulation, 5♠ will lead to 5♠ doubled most of the time, and, when it doesn't, the opps will be bidding on to the 'right' contract anyway (compared to over 4♠). The main difference between 4♠ and 5♠ will be that the opps will score 300 more most of the time.

[Blofeld]

I definitely accept that there will be a reasonably large number of hands where they'll just double 4♠, and also double 5♠. Obviously in this case 5♠ loses. I think it will only tend to lose 200, though -- if it's losing 300 then partner's hand provided no tricks for us, which somewhat decreases the chances that it was right for them to penalise us (though obviously partner could have a stack of hearts, so this isn't always true) -- but 200 is still 5 IMPs.

But there are various other cases. Reasonably often they'd be bidding at the 5-level over 4♠ but doubling 5♠. This is a good score for the 5♠ bid if they were making at the 5-level and partner can provide us with a trick (3 or 4 IMPs) or two (7 or 8). Obviously it's a bad score otherwise.

When they bid the same thing at the six (or seven!) level over either bid, it makes no difference what they did. But it seems that even if by and large they do the same thing, they're more likely to get it wrong over 5♠, where they have more space. Either they'll reach the wrong slam, or they'll overreach after 5♠ and go down ... or alternatively neither will be able to bid a slam they could reach after 4♠.

This may backfire and get them into a good slam or keep them out of a bad one they wouldn't/would reach after 4♠. But on balance I think good opponents will be more likely to reach the right spot when they've got more space to investigate it.

---

Overall I think that 5♠ is more a statement of a belief that they can make at the 5-level than the 6-level. This could be wrong, but my guess is that the balance of probability is with the 5♠ bid.

This would be a fun hand to try a simulation on, I think. If only so we can argue about what our opps would do in the ensuing auction!