[pclayton]

awm, on Dec 4 2006, 12:56 PM, said:

Of course, we could change Roland's example hand just slightly:

Scoring: IMP

---

Now the points are divided 20-20. Surely we all open the west hand and respond 1♥ on the east hand.... and 1NT is likely two or three down. If opener finds a double this is 500 or 800 opposite not even a game, and even if he doesn't it will be 200 or 300 opposite a partial. This is all a matter of the odds -- which is more likely after opening and response with me holding 16 hcp: partner has 9 or RHO has 9? Assuming opponents do sometimes pass an opening bid, odds have to be in favor of RHO having 9 and I'm taking my life in my hands.

On the actual hand I would double. This is potentially safer than 1NT, since we more easily get to 1♠ or 2♣ (both harder to penalize and defeat than 1NT). On the actual cards partner will show me a good hand (say 1♦-P-1♥-X; 2♥-3♣ or 1♦-P-1♥-X; XX-3♣) and I can easily bid game.

I would assume North would run from 1N x'd with 4-4 in the unbid suits, and I'm guessing NS would end up in 2♣ hammered.

The play and defense to 2♣ is rather interesting. Its far from clear that 2♣ is going down.

[whereagles]

Walddk, on Dec 4 2006, 08:57 PM, said:

1. That simulation would be useless because you assume that opener has 12+ hcp and responder 5+. This is not the case in real life as I'm sure you have experienced on a number of occasions.

2. As to your double in the balancing set, I must confess that I am lost. It's not at all safer (to the contrary) to get in now. Opener could have 15, responder 9, leaving your partner with a bust.

1. It's not a simulation, it's a statistical sample study. "Every hand where LHO opened 1x, RHO responded 1y and we overcalled 1NT, natural." Has nothing to do with lower bounds 12/5.


2. It's more like 14/9, but let's not get picky. There are two reasons why balancing is relatively safe here:

a. opps found a fit, so we should have one as well.
b. opps have no more than those 12/5 and already said they're at best 14/9

Items a & b plus a bit of conditioned probability will tell you pard will have some scraps with a high chance of a fit.

Anyway, the reason opps can catch me speeding isn't because they MIGHT be 14/9. It's because they already exchanged a lot of info. But don't forget they're also in the dark as to what the other has.

Conclusion: yes, there's a real risk to balance with dbl, but I don't see why the immediate butt-in would be safer.