[pbleighton]

Background:
It was the last hand of the night at 10:30 in a small but decent club (matchpoints) game, the night before Thanksgiving. My partners and I had been having a terrible two week period. We tend to stretch for games, especially in competition, and the bridge gods had been cruel indeed.

Sitting in the third seat, I picked up something like KJx-QJ-Q9x-KQJ10x. My pd opened a 15-17 (not good 14) NT. After some hesitation, I bid 3NT, which made 6. The hand was flat, no one bid slam.

Specific question: would you have made a slam try? Your options are 4NT quantitative, Gerber, and 2S transfer to clubs, with 2NT = I don't like clubs and 3C = I like clubs.

If you wouldn't, please say generally what you need to go to slam/make a slam try without any aces (and no voids with huge fits), in NT and in a suit. We had 30-32 hcp and a good source of tricks. I think I would have gone with KQJ of spades, for example.

Peter

[jikl]

If I was going to go for slam, it gets interesting on whether ot mention ♣s. Do you want to give them a "safe" lead or do you want to put them off leading ♣s? A lot of that depends on what type of player the opening leader is, gambler or safety first?

I have a feeling given that I have Gerber available (not that I play it) I might have a try since we are likely to gain a trick on the opening lead on a non-♣ lead. We know mathematically that partner must have 2 aces, the question is whether they have more. We can always stop in 4NT if need be.

Sean

[cherdano]

I think you need a dream hand from partner to make slam better than on a finesse here. So I bid 3N.

I would make a slam try without aces when a typical good hand from partner would make it better than 50%...

[barmar]

I'm not sure there's any way to find out if there's a good slam. Suppose you use Gerber and find partner with all 4 aces. This is still only 9 top tricks. If both major suit finesses are on you're up to 11, and you then need a squeeze or something nice in diamonds for 12.

[mikestar]

If you never go down in slam, you aren't bidding slam often enough. If you never make slam without bidding it, you are bidding slam too often. This hand is an example of the latter. A good place to start is the Culbertson rule: "Invite slam if a perfect minimum will make it a laydown." (From the Blue Book, 1930.) This hand needs some luck opposite a perfect 15, so on balance it shouldn't be inviting.

My own catch phrase is "3NT making 6 always outscores 6NT making 3."

I rather also like Jeff Ruben's dictum for match points: "A positive score will never be a zero." He cites an amusing hand where a pair stopped in 2♦ due to a system misunderstanding on a hand cold for 6 in either major on NT--and were about 30% because several pairs overreached and bid the unmakable grand.

[the hog]

I would have bid a quantitative 4NT. The good Cs sway me. I cna construct many hands ith 15-17 opposite where slam is cold, not even on a finesse. Note that after 4NT you can still get to a decent 6 of a minor if that is the right spot.

[Winstonm]

Quote

Specific question: would you have made a slam try? Your options are 4NT quantitative, Gerber, and 2S transfer to clubs, with 2NT = I don't like clubs and 3C = I like clubs.

If you wouldn't, please say generally what you need to go to slam/make a slam try without any aces (and no voids with huge fits), in NT and in a suit. We had 30-32 hcp and a good source of tricks. I think I would have gone with KQJ of spades, for example.

1. No slam try.
2. I need to hold 16 without Aces - if the hand is semi-balanced. I want partner to bid 6N with 16 + 3 Aces or any 17 so I have to hold 16 in order to eliminate the possibility of being off two aces. A suit slam try can be considerably less, around 14 or so as fits and controls become the issue. As with any suit slam try, it is about an adequate trump suit, shape, and controls.

3. With the hand shown, partner could hold quite a decent 16 and we are down off the top. Goes back to the theory of game before speculative slam.
Axx, AKx, Jxxx, Axx or Axx, xx, AKJx Axxx

Missing what turns out to be a makeable slam is not an issue to me unless I had the tools to find it and my judgement was flawed - and this is even more so in NT auctions where the tools are unusually blunt.