[sfbp]

whereagles, on Nov 8 2006, 11:52 AM, said:

Assuming perfect defense, game needs a spade honor onside and the heart finesse. That's roughly 75% of 50% = 42,5%, or of the "worth bidding" type A bit more if you guess a singleton trump honor right.

Any 2-2 spade break OR any singleton honour, surely?

And if hearts break you don't even need the KH unless opps manage to break both minors.

[kenberg]

The bridge encyclopedia does not seem to have exactly this spade combibnation but it has combos that are close (for example Axxxxx opposite QTx, pretty much the same as here providing you intend to start the spades by playing the ace) and gives 78% chance of five tricks. This seems about right: You lay down the ace, there are 16 possible layouts of opponents cards, four of them are bad (singleton spot (either of two) with E, void with E. void with W). This may be as good as you can do with the suit.

But now it gets tricky (it almost always does). You are not necessarily dead if you lose two spades, providing you can ditch a minor loser. Suppose the play begins with a club, you win the ace, and you start on trump. You play the ace, small spots appear. You play towards the Q and E shows out. Now you are dead even if the heart finesse was working, since you cannot get back to your hand.


Edit: The following is a corrected version. I had way to many kings in the previous version:

So maybe the spades should be started, trick 2, by leading towards the 9. The Encylopedia recommends this anyway, providing E would hop up holding Kx. If the 9 loses to the Jack, you later are on the board with the diamond ace and you lead the Q, letting it ride if W produces a spot. Don't forget to congratulate E if he produces the K.

It seems to me the best line of play is not clear. But this seems like trouble if the heart king is offside.

As far as getting to 4 is concerned I think if anyone would bid it, S would. Minimum point count, but Qxx opposite a known six card suit is worth more than two points. An auction beginning 1D 1S 1N (playing strong NT) is more or less equivalent, and we are told they got there by 3S then 4S, with S holding the same minimal count and the same Qxx. Rebidding 4S over a 12-14 1NT rebid, or making a Texas trf over an opening weak NT, seems wildly optimistic to me. Bidding 3 is pushy.

[whereagles]

Justin, all that is fine and dandy, but factoring in all possibilities of declarer/defender play complicates the problem immensely and I find it hard that a mathematician will try and solve it for free

I just followed a simple straight-down-the-middle line and came up with about 45%; 50% if you will. That's good enough for any of us to bid game, so we should be on it

As for the play in spades, you're right that there may be better than the double hook. But I'm not going to look that suit combo now

[paulg]

Jlall, on Nov 8 2006, 10:15 PM, said:

BTW in a vaccum a spade to the 9 is the correct play. I once posted about that suit combination, it is my favorite one actually. However here you are never picking up 4-0 spades on your right so it's an anti percentage play considering just the spade suit.

This is a good illustration of how bridge is not such a black and white game.

I can see why this could be a favourite combination. In a vacuum:

• The best line for 5 tricks is small to the 9.
  
• The only line for 6 tricks is to cash the Ace or lead the Queen.
  
• The best matchpoint line is to cash the Ace or lead the Queen as this returns a higher average number of tricks.

Paul
Apologies if this is what you posted previously