[Miron]

Scoring: IMP

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2♥ - pass - pass - pass
2♥ = (0)3-8, 5♥

Would you discard club on spade (needs spades 3-3)
or would you try to trump out and play spades (needs club finesse or defense error).

[gwnn]

I wouldn't be overjoyed to see deffies ruffing spade ruffing diamond finessing club ruffing etc (in some nice order). I seem to have 7 1/2 rather nice tricks, drawing trump feels right. Or no?

[kenberg]

I'm going to start the trumps, but it seems there are some problems other than the potential club loser. Did this defense begin with three rounds of diamonds? Since you are offering the option of hearts, or spades to throw a club, I am assuming those three suits have not yet been played. If so, I am on the board. It would be good to have an opinion about who has the thirteenth diamond before I lead a small or large heart.

[awm]

Well it would be nice to know the defense up until now.

In any case, the club finesse is 50%. Spades breaking is less likely. And playing on trumps first gives opponents the chance to misdefend. Playing spades also seems to increase the odds of two down if LHO can ruff, cash clubs ending with RHO, and then promote another trump.

[Miron]

Sorry I forgot to write the lead, some spade (don't remember it now, it wasn't obvious doubleton).

[whereagles]

Club finesse is not 50% because you lack the 9. It requires AJ or KJ onside.

I prefer a spade. A lot can happen, including RHO being tempted into an indescretion, like a ruff that'll help me pick the suit.

[kenberg]

I may be coming around to where's way of thinking. Besides the fact that the club finesse is not a 50% proposition there is also this: If the third round of spades is ruffed on your right you aren't dead yet. If ruffed low you can over ruff and still try the clubs, if ruffed with the ace (dream on) you can still toss the club. The best defense if rho holds two spades would be for him to toss a diamond from a three card holding, but he can't do that if he has a four card holding. And if he does hold two spades and only three diamonds he may well hold four hearts which means the contract is in trouble if I play on hearts first, hoping for the club finesse and splitting hearts. So it seems as if playing on spades is good if they are 3-3 and might be harmles if they are 4-2 with the 2 on the right.

I guess it depends on what I make of the spade lead and the spade play on my right. But spades are definitely more attractive than I first thought.