[pclayton]

I kibbed one of our regulars the other night and I saw this interesting position:

You are playing in 3N and here is the diamond suit.

Dummy: ♦KJ9754

You: ♦10

You lead the 10 from hand. It is covered by the Q and the K which wins. How to continue?

9 tricks are cold; overtricks are all that is at stake.

[whereagles]

Hum.. I think the jack is correct. It wins to doubleton 8 and any 3-3 break. A low one wins to doubleton ace but loses to a 3-3 break.

[hatchett]

Quote

Hum.. I think the jack is correct. It wins to doubleton 8 and any 3-3 break. A low one wins to doubleton ace but loses to a 3-3 break.

Why would you cover from Qxx in front of KJ9xxx? It can never gain.

[kenrexford]

Small seems right at first blush, but a deeper analysis is required.

LHO with AQx would not stick in the Queen. Thus, if LHO has the AQ, it is tight. His play of the Queen is an attempt to burn three top cards at once, then two more to catch his Ace, promoting his partner's possible 8xxx.

If RHO holds the Ace, however, he may expect this analysis from you. With A8xx, he has a trick coming sooner or later; with A8 tight he has no options, but with A8x, he can gain by a duck.

However, that gambit requires, as noted, the Queen to be played from Qxx by LHO. Will not happen.

But, as suggested, this begs the question as to whether LHO might gambit the Queen from Q8 tight. Sure, a duck might work, but the 10 seems likely to float. Jumping in with the Queen gains if Declarer plays for the AQ tight combo. This requires, of course, RHO to play along and duck twice with Axxx, lacking the 8.

So, it seems like the pure odds are 50-50. However, two psychological factors lead me to play small. First, playing the Q from AQ seems easier for the opposition that playing Q from Q8, as the latter requires a lot deeper defensive analysis. Second, some RHO's will blindly win the King with Axxx, whereas a small card from 8xxx is easy.

So, I play small... But wait! What if the Queen was stiff??? I suppose that a small card is right ONLY when losing a fast trick to A8xxx is not a problem (sufficient control of all suits and no second option).