[Winstonm]

Scoring: IMP

Not vul against vul in a KO event you reach 3N after LHO has overcalled 1H. Opening leader lays down the A and Q of clubs, RHO signalling encouragement. Rightly or wrongly you decide to try to get a little more information and cash the AK of spades, all following with low cards. It appears LHO is either 3514 or maybe 2515.

Do you play for the anti-percentage drop of the diamond king and concede down 1 or do you risk down a lot by crossing to the heart Ace for the diamond finesse?

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[jdonn]

I am not vul so down a lot isn't total disaster, and I'm in a game the other table may very well not reach. I play to make.

I would not have taken the AK of spades, since nothing could have happened on those cards that would talk me out of the diamond finesse.

[kenrexford]

The opening of 1D ruins the normal inferences as to respective lengths of clubs and hearts, as many ar loath to overcall an unusual 2NT here. But, shortness in spades usually wins the day. Hence, I also expect short diamonds to the left.

That being the case, I will take the finesse. Going down several NV is not that bad, and I expect my opponent at the other table to resolve this concern the same way. Make the game is possible.

That being said, I would add that my entry to dummy will be by play of the heart Queen toward dummy. If RHO has the stiff Jack, perhaps RHO will cover. If RHO has the KJ, I'd be surprised if he failed to cover. In any event, the Queen play seems to be a low-cost shot at an overtrick, and it may even work better than that. Assuming a cover and drop, or a cover and block, the diamond finesse failure may not cost as much.

Give LHO xx-K98xxx-K-AQJ10, and a cover of the heart Queen. When I take the unfortunate finesse into the stiff King, LHO wins that and two more clubs. But, my heart 10 produces a ninth trick. True, a duck of hearts works better for LHO, but he may miss this in practice.

For that matter, a duck works well also if I let the heart Queen ride. I see the Jack drop and can "read" a 2614 pattern for LHO. Now I wish that I had kept a spade block (I would have). With this layout, I can cash the diamond Ace and out, hoping for a club blockage, such that I again reach nine tricks.

The big Q is whether I should let the heart Queen ride after small from LHO. In thinking this hand out, I think I will.

[FrancesHinden]

I also wouldn't have cashed the spades, but would simply have crossed in hearts to take the diamond finesse.

We don't know exactly how many we are going off if this goes wrong: it depends on the exact club layout. On a bad day they can take 1 diamond, 4 clubs and 4 hearts and we are -250.

Even on the worst case we are comparing -250 against +400 with a sure -50. As the diamond finesse is at least 50% (LHO is known to have long clubs and hearts) it seems right by a large margin to finesse.

[hatchett]

As the post above

[keylime]

I'm going strictly by gut feeling here since my brain is not with it.

I wouldn't touch spades. LHO likely doesn't have 5 clubs, otherwise a 2NT overcall may have happened (one never knows). I'm going to assume they are x-5-x-4. I don't finesse. I play for the drop. It's very unlikely that spades are 3-3. More so, I think LHO on a priori odds are 2-5-2-4. Dropping the A therefore is much more the percentage play.

Remember, they are vul. LHO has the majority of the points at IMPs.

[mikeh]

As per jdonn and frances: and I would not try the ♥Q variant... it gains a 9th trick on a vanishingly small number of hands. While I am confident that the ♥K is on my left, I have seen players bid 1♥ on hands such as Qx J987xx x AQJx... and that is, imho, a greater likelihood than the xx K987xx K AQJ10 we are catering to

As for playing for the drop: count me out. There is NO reason to place the ♦K with LHO: the argument that he has most of the points may be true, but is irrelevant.

We would all overcall on xxx KJ98x x AQJx, and feel that we had full values.

Drawing inferences about the point distribution is only valid when we can infer that a player would have made some call other than the one(s) they actually made IF they possessed or lacked certain cards. Here, LHO has no need for the ♦K to give him a sound overcall, and RHO has no bid with or without that card.

Thus we fall back on basic percentages: in this case, the percentage play is to finesse. We can modify that a bit by considering the 'empty spaces': we can assume that LHO holds at least 9 round cards and possibly more, giving him little room for the ♦K, while RHO holds no more than 7 round cards and possibly fewer. This consideration makes the finesse more than 50%.

[pclayton]

I think you have to hook the ♦. LHO has plenty for an overcall with the ♣AQ (J?)(x) and a ♥ K/J, so its very possible RHO has the ♦K. Further, LHO appears to have at least 9 round cards, so there's plenty of vacant space in RHO's mitt for the ♦K.

Even if the ♦K loses, clubs could block, but you are still booked to lose 1♦, 1♥ and 3♣'s.

There's no point to the ♠A-K cash. Even if if the diamond loses, you will lose a total of 4 clubs, 4 hearts and the ♦K (down 5), but hearts might be 6-1.

Even worse, clubs could block, and you've just created an entry for RHO to cash the club if LHO is 3=5=2=3 or 3=5=1=4.

[Winstonm]

LHO started life with:

Jxx
KJ9xx
K
AQJx

A rather disgusting down 5 - made even more disgusting because of the singleton king of diamonds.

Ce la vie.

Winston

[keylime]

Clean living does it everytime.