P_Marlowe, on May 6 2006, 09:08 AM, said:
Hi,
first of all 2S is a normal call, ... just look at
reopening tacticts described by Lawrence et.
all, Spades are a safe suit, oppoenents
are limited.
A suit Jxxxx and some random 8 count
would be sufficient for a 2S call but not
for a direct 1S call, ... at least some players
require a certain suit quality.
For the actual question: It certainly depends on
level and exp., if you dbl or not, but I would
have passed without the hesitation and I will pass
now.
I will look at the answers of the player better than
me will certainly reconsider my strategy, but I would
pass.
With kind regards
Marlowe
PS: It certainly matters how weak 1D could be,
and if partner could have passed 1H.
We know they have at most a 7 card fit, but the
points could be 20-20 and it is not clear that we can
make 1NT.
Balancing 2S after the opponents have found a fit or if the opponents have not ended in NT after a mistfit auction is reasonably normal. This is not either situation.
Spades are not a safe suit here since after 1♣-P-1♦-P;1♥-P-1N-P-P-?? there is a very good chance the opponents have 6-7 spades between them and most or all the spade honors you don't have.
If the 2S bidder has KQxxxx and nothing else, they had a 2S WJO earlier in the auction. So they do not have that.
If they had a full opening bid and 4+S, they could have bid 1S in the 1st round. If they had 5+S, even bad ones, and something reasonable they could have acted in the 1st or 2nd rounds.
Please construct a hand that makes sense for the 2S balancer to have after this auction given Opener's hand. Take into account it has to be flawed enough to not have taken action at the one level in the previous two rounds of bidding yet be good enough to bid 2S all by itself with no encouragement from GOP.
...and even if such a hand does exist (doubtful), Opener is still looking at a flat 14 HCP including AJXx of S's when the auction says the Opening side has 20-22 HCP with the hand a misfit and an opponent who could not bid 1S over 1C or over 1H yet can balance with 2S.
Probability and Bridge Logic says the 2S bidder has made a mistake. Particularly at matchpoints, you must punish such behavior. X here feels right at least 80% of the time.
PS: If is not clear the Opening side can make 1N, and especially if it is clear They are not likely to make 1N, why isn't Balancer just passing and making the Opening lead that will get a plus rather than risking a bid?