Posted 2003-April-16, 06:12
Font=courier]IMPS
VUL BOTH
DEAL: South
K832
Q6
T64
9853
AQ9
AKJ
AK82
AKQ
So We No Ea
2C P 2D P
4N P 5C P
5D P 6N P
P P [/font]
Opening lead HEART - SEVEN
Plan you play.
A few people got this right, I thought I entered their names, but now I see that I didn't. It was probably Rain, Jstroke, and maybe efjee, they seem to get all of these right. Sorry, my bad.
The solution is fairly easy. You have 11 sure tricks (3S, 3H, 3C and 2D). If either black suit splits 3-3 you will have a 12th trick. But before you test those suits, you should see that if diamonds split 3-3, you can duck a trick in that suit early in the hand, and then you will make 12.
So the correct play is to win the first heart and duck a Diamond. This allows you to make if DQJ doubleton or the suit is split 3-3, or if SPADE JT or Club JT is doubleton or either black suit of those 3-3. For the mathematically interested, I think the odds of one of these six conditions (3-3 or doubleton honors) is roughly 56.%.
So ducking a DIAMOND increases your chance of making by a 3-3 split in a suit by whatever percentage having luck in any of three suit versus two suits can. But your chance of making 12 tricks is even better than that. The reason is because there must be an elementary squeeze position here if none of the three suits split 3-3.
What you need to realize is that only ONE opponent can hold 4 or more SPADES. Only one oppoenent can hold 4 or more CLUBS, and only one opponent can hold 4 or more DIAMONDS. The obvious implication here is that if none of the suits split 3-3, one of your opponents will have 4 or more in two of these suits and that person can be squeezed if you time your plays right.
On the real hand. WEST had 4Clubs, and EAST had four DIAMONDS and SPADES. You duck a diamond, and they return a heart. Cash winners, and see how you do. It is important to cash you last heart early.
So, duck diamond.. .maybe Diamonds 3-3
No suit 3-3, then squeeze come to rescue...
AFTER ducking diamond, cash 3CLUBS, the SPADE AQ then the last heart (see below). Play with the hands by moving the cards around. Pay close attention to heart spots...as you need to figure out if WEST is long in hearts... with 4C and long hearts, can help with selection of right line some times.
The ending would be....
K8
void
T
.... 9
void JT
xxx void
void Q93
J ....void
9
void
AK2
void
East still have to play a card in this ending (on say your last heart). If throws a spade, two spades in dummy are good. If throws a diamond, you win 3 diamonds in your hand (you threw away one diamond from dummy on the last heart).
--Ben--