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Probability of major suit lead

#1 User is offline   ajm218 

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Posted 2010-February-18, 03:41

Anyone care to speculate on the probability of major suit being lead on a random board? (Or have access to a load of results with opening lead included?)
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#2 User is offline   Jlall 

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Posted 2010-February-18, 03:57

Against 3N maybe 80 %?

Against suit contracts I would guess less than 50 %, because usually people are declaring a major, and usually a trump is not led.

Against 1N maybe 70 %
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#3 User is offline   ajm218 

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Posted 2010-February-18, 03:59

So any idea what the overall prob comes out to be? B)
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#4 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2010-February-18, 04:32

no clue B)

partner is more likely to overcall a mayor, that's all I can think of O_o
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#5 User is offline   hanp 

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Posted 2010-February-18, 04:56

58%.
and the result can be plotted on a graph.
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#6 User is offline   Jlall 

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Posted 2010-February-18, 04:58

This seems like a question that is best answered by some large database like bridgebrowser
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#7 User is offline   hanp 

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Posted 2010-February-18, 07:35

Or perhaps it is a question that is best not answered?
and the result can be plotted on a graph.
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#8 User is offline   ewj 

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Posted 2010-February-18, 08:08

Yeh, who cares :)?
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#9 User is offline   ajm218 

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Posted 2010-February-18, 09:05

I was just wondering what people's intuitions were or if anyone had access to a load of results and could quickly give us a sample prob...

For people who aren't interested - there are millions of other threads out there, most of which really are very interesting indeed... for you... :)
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