[inquiry]

IMPS....
Dealer South
Vuln. EW

S T97
H AQT7
D 46
C AK73

S AKQ83
H K
D AK73
C T62

You bid to 7S, and WEST leads the nine of hearts. You play low from dummy and win the king in hand. After cashing the AK of spades, both follow. Simple math... 2D, 2C, 3H, 5S is 12. The simple play, D-AK and ruff a diamond, losing only to one hand hold Jxx of spades and a doubleton diamond. Esoteric play, combine chance of droping HEART JACK third with a compound squeeze on the hand with the heart jack (he will have to give up a diamond or a club quard). What line do you play? Why?

Ben

[luis]

My first instinct is that trying to ruff a diamond in dummy is too dangerous because there're really a lot of good things that can happen.

If the opening leader is a good player the heart lead is from length looking for the safest lead, probably with Jxx of spades. If this is the case then he maybe short in diamonds.

I think I can safely cross with a club honor and cash the hA and hQ if the jack drops the hand is over if the jack doesn't drop I can still decide between the diamond ruff and playing a squeeze. If the heart lead is a safe lead from 4/6 small cards then the hJ must be dropping.

I'll go with the "esoteric" line for the posted reasons maybe it's time to ridiculize myself if a diamond ruff was the right play at the table. I don't mind. :-)

Luis

[inquiry]

shoot... luis you take all the fun out of the hand. If you cash Heart AQ, the Jack falls giving you 13 easy tricks. And yes, if you try Diamond AK, and another diamond, West ruffs with the spade JACK and you are down. But this is resulting the hand in effect. It is not safe to cash two diamonds and try to ruff the third, but it is safe to cash three top hearts with a trump out. Not exactly sure if this is clear that one of these is better than the other.

My interest is if there is a reason to assume that you have a great chance to make the hand combining the possibility for heart Jx or Jxx along with squeeze possibilities or if playing your line or if playing 3 diamonds is the best line.

Anyone want to help figure out the best line, based upon opening lead and the like?

Ben

[inquiry]

If my math is right, and it may not be, the chance of making if you cash diamond AK and play to ruff a third diamond is 78% almost exactly, if the spade JACK had fallen on the second round, the odds for ruffing the third diamond skyrockets to… 94.3%.

The question becomes, can you get better odds than 78% by taking another line?

Luis went for cashing two hearts while leaving the trump out. This allows him to combine the chance with dropping H-J before getting a chance to ruff the diamond.

You can also play for a squeeze. First you have to believe that if WEST has the heart jack, you can’t be defeated by playing for the heart drop or squeeze (West can not keep hearts and both minors, the purpose of a compound squeeze). Second, if EAST has heart Jxx or Jx originally, you make on the squeeze play since the jack drops. This doesn’t add up to a lot, something like 54.5%. But there are some hands you can make when EAST has lots of hearts to the Jack. For instance, if East has 6 or 7 hearts originally, to go along with at least 2 spades, it become less likely he can stop both or perhaps either minor. For instance, East might be 2-7-2-2, 3-6-2-2, or 2-7-1-3 without the club Q or Jack, when his partner will be exposed to a minor suit squeeze. Or with four or five hearts to the jack EAST might have five plus diamonds, and thus he would be exposed to a red suit squeeze. The possible squeezes are:
Compound squeeze if West has heart jack
D – H squeeze on East has 5+D plus heart J
C - D squeeze on WEST if West has 5+D and 4+C
Double squeeze if East has H-J and west has 4+C
And of course if either opponent has QJ doubleton of club or Jx or Jxx of hearts.

Sadly, I am not up to calculating the odds of all these combinations. But a rough estimate (which could be wrong) has it at 82% (this includes the monster bad splits in diamonds and hearts, so squeeze has to work). Then you can add in the hands with QJx of clubs with WEST.

So while I am not certain of the various chances, I think the right play is five rounds of trumps, throwing a club and diamond from dummy. Then cross to the club ace (if no club Q or J) cash two hearts, discarding a club and diamond.

 T97  
 AQT3  
 64  
 AK73  

J54 62
96542 J87
J8 QT932
QJ8 954


 AKQ83  
 K  
 AK75  
 T62  

[mishovnbg]

Hi all!
When this board was played at team match, I was happy to have Rumen as my guest ( he played as S ). He bidded only 6SP and played after 2 round trumps for ruffing 3th DI. His comment about 7SP was squeese have good chances here, but if ruffing is successful, then probably no squeese and v.v. Matter of choice is way to play...
Luis, on 7SP contract lead from Jxx SP is 100% save, if opps use RKCB and Q SP was shown.
Ben, as Rumen said most professionals dont like to play exotic way, if some simple and enough chance way is possible. Normally they expect same play at other table. At semi finals latest championship just finished, he and Kalin played 2 X 24 boards + 1 X 12 board for day! On long run anybody get tired and saving energy is important for success too. By the way I gave him our problem at 3NT and he played it simple for 2 right K.
Misho

[inquiry]

Quote

When this board was played at team match, I was happy to have Rumen as my guest ( he played as S ).

Hi Misho. This is very interesting that you played this hand. I would like to see the hand records, could you provide a link? I got this hand from kibitzing Flatbrain (who is a team member of mine in Abalucy) on Oct 20th, and of course you and rumen were not playing or I would have been kibitizing you guys. Also, I looked for recent 6S hands by you and couldn't find this one. I was unaware that hands played in one team match also showed up in other matches. The link to the hand record from which I found this one is...

http://bridgebase.lunarpages.com/cgi-bin/h...066682339-31803

Quote

He bidded only 6SP and played after 2 round trumps for ruffing 3th DI. His comment about 7SP was squeese have good chances here, but if ruffing is successful, then probably no squeese and v.v. Matter of choice is way to play..

Well, I have to disagree a little with the theory that if one line works then the other does not and vice versa. This can be demonstratably not true. One example will suffice. Give WEST

S-Jxx
H-Jxxx
D-QT9
C-Qxx

Now you can safely ruff a diamond, and both opponents have a stopper in both minors. But west with heart Jack is exposed to the compound squeeze. On the fourht trump, he already has to abandon one of his minor stoppers (a heart discard is instantly fatal). And the fifth trump makes the ending easy to read. But it is true that if ruffing a diamond doesn't work, then a squeeze pretty much always works. The logic there is that the hand with long diamond either has the heart JACK, in which case a red suit squeeze, or the hand does not have the heart JACK, in which case there might be a double squeeze. But as you can see from the example I gave above, you can squeeze sometimes when both opponents stop both minors. The possibility of a compound squeeze when heart JACK doesn't fall is pretty good. I have to wonder if Rumen was only thinking about double squeeze (one short in diamond, other in hearts) or simple squeeze (one long in heart and diamonds) and didn't consider the compound squeeze when he said when one line works, the other doesn't and vise versa.

When you factor in, as luis did, the heart lead is very likley from legnth (as it was), I think this makes playing for the compound squeeze, heart JACK drop a big winner, even larger than the odds might otherwise suggest. Because when WEST is long in hearts, the squeeze/drop heart jack line ALWAYS works.

Quote

Ben, as Rumen said most professionals dont like to play exotic way, if some simple and enough chance way is possible. Normally they expect same play at other table.

If I was in 6S, I wouldn't give this hand much thought either. But if you bid 7S at imps, you have every reason to believe the other table might not have bid the grand. In the match I watched, one pair bid 7, one did not. In the match you quote, you guys did not bid 7. To bid 7 vul, requires something like 74% to make or it probably should not be bid at imps (you win 13 imps if you are right (+750) but lose 17 imps (-1530) if you are wrong. So odds best be heavy in your favor. This grand slam is no where near 74%, as four/five spades to the jack offside (and even onside as you will not guess to hook) will sink, the odds of such a split is 26%, but you then have to factor in the odds of managing a 13th trick. What this suggest is even in a long match, and even with good opponents, if you are in 7S it is time to find the best chance line. This is the kind of hand that will make or break a match. And indeed if declearer makes 7S he's side wins the match.

I am not trying to say the squeeze or the line luis suggested (trying hearts first) is better than just playing ruff a diamond. If I was absolutely certain, I would not have posted the hand. But I don't accept take the simple line becasue it will be taken at the other table, or take the easy way out to save energy on a vulnerable grand slam hand at imps.

By the wai I gave him our problem at 3NT and he played it simple for 2 right K.

Ok. I give. If both you and Rumen (both of which are superior players to me) think it is must be better to play EAST specifically for club king and WEST specifically for Kx or Kxx in hearts, than it is to play EAST for just the club king, I must be totally wrong. It is just that I don't mind wasting my energy looking for the exotic plays. In fact, that is what I prefer to do (I often go down in simple to make contracts because I think I found an esoteric line). It is just that the vulnerable stopper squeeze just seemed to jump off the page to me on that one after the diamond switch, just like on this hand a potential compound squeeze on west seems clear to me after the opening lead as at least a good option.

For anyone interested, the 3NT hand misho and I are discussing is hand 2 of the following thread....
http://forums.bridgebase.com/in...y;threadid=1235

[luis]

Quote

Quote

When this board was played at team match, I was happy to have Rumen as my guest ( he played as S ).

Hi Misho. This is very interesting that you played this hand. I would like to see the hand records, could you provide a link? I got this hand from kibitzing Flatbrain (who is a team member of mine in Abalucy) on Oct 20th, and of course you and rumen were not playing or I would have been kibitizing you guys. Also, I looked for recent 6S hands by you and couldn't find this one. I was unaware that hands played in one team match also showed up in other matches. The link to the hand record from which I found this one is...

http://bridgebase.lunarpages.com/cgi-bin/h...066682339-31803

Quote

He bidded only 6SP and played after 2 round trumps for ruffing 3th DI. His comment about 7SP was squeese have good chances here, but if ruffing is successful, then probably no squeese and v.v. Matter of choice is way to play..

Well, I have to disagree a little with the theory that if one line works then the other does not and vice versa. This can be demonstratably not true. One example will suffice. Give WEST

S-Jxx
H-Jxxx
D-QT9
C-Qxx

Now you can safely ruff a diamond, and both opponents have a stopper in both minors. But west with heart Jack is exposed to the compound squeeze. On the fourht trump, he already has to abandon one of his minor stoppers (a heart discard is instantly fatal). And the fifth trump makes the ending easy to read. But it is true that if ruffing a diamond doesn't work, then a squeeze pretty much always works. The logic there is that the hand with long diamond either has the heart JACK, in which case a red suit squeeze, or the hand does not have the heart JACK, in which case there might be a double squeeze. But as you can see from the example I gave above, you can squeeze sometimes when both opponents stop both minors. The possibility of a compound squeeze when heart JACK doesn't fall is pretty good. I have to wonder if Rumen was only thinking about double squeeze (one short in diamond, other in hearts) or simple squeeze (one long in heart and diamonds) and didn't consider the compound squeeze when he said when one line works, the other doesn't and vise versa.

When you factor in, as luis did, the heart lead is very likley from legnth (as it was), I think this makes playing for the compound squeeze, heart JACK drop a big winner, even larger than the odds might otherwise suggest. Because when WEST is long in hearts, the squeeze/drop heart jack line ALWAYS works.

Quote

Ben, as Rumen said most professionals dont like to play exotic way, if some simple and enough chance way is possible. Normally they expect same play at other table.

If I was in 6S, I wouldn't give this hand much thought either. But if you bid 7S at imps, you have every reason to believe the other table might not have bid the grand. In the match I watched, one pair bid 7, one did not. In the match you quote, you guys did not bid 7. To bid 7 vul, requires something like 74% to make or it probably should not be bid at imps (you win 13 imps if you are right (+750) but lose 17 imps (-1530) if you are wrong. So odds best be heavy in your favor. This grand slam is no where near 74%, as four/five spades to the jack offside (and even onside as you will not guess to hook) will sink, the odds of such a split is 26%, but you then have to factor in the odds of managing a 13th trick. What this suggest is even in a long match, and even with good opponents, if you are in 7S it is time to find the best chance line. This is the kind of hand that will make or break a match. And indeed if declearer makes 7S he's side wins the match.

I am not trying to say the squeeze or the line luis suggested (trying hearts first) is better than just playing ruff a diamond. If I was absolutely certain, I would not have posted the hand. But I don't accept take the simple line becasue it will be taken at the other table, or take the easy way out to save energy on a vulnerable grand slam hand at imps.

By the wai I gave him our problem at 3NT and he played it simple for 2 right K.

Ok. I give. If both you and Rumen (both of which are superior players to me) think it is must be better to play EAST specifically for club king and WEST specifically for Kx or Kxx in hearts, than it is to play EAST for just the club king, I must be totally wrong. It is just that I don't mind wasting my energy looking for the exotic plays. In fact, that is what I prefer to do (I often go down in simple to make contracts because I think I found an esoteric line). It is just that the vulnerable stopper squeeze just seemed to jump off the page to me on that one after the diamond switch, just like on this hand a potential compound squeeze on west seems clear to me after the opening lead as at least a good option.

For anyone interested, the 3NT hand misho and I are discussing is hand 2 of the following thread....
http://forums.bridgebase.com/in...y;threadid=1235

About 7s I don't know I think that trying hearts first is the best line because either the hJ drops in east or west is surely squeezed and you can also play to ruff a diamond if you decide that is the best play if the hJ doesn't drop or you can't see the ending clear. This is based on the asumption that the heart lead is from length. Nice to discuss.

About the 3NT hand that line my friend Misho is just lazy, after the overcall playing hearts from the top is best, the K might drop singleton and if not you can play a squeeze that is going to succeed, the ending is very easy to read. So I don't buy that.

[mishovnbg]

Hi Ben!
I dont played it, was Rumen, I kibitz him. Easy to find board if you search for "Rumen" in "myhands": http://bridgebase.lunarpages.com/cgi-bin/h...fetchlin=687821. I just quote comments of Rumen - he is probably greatest bulgarian player all time and I carefully listen and try to learn from him. Ben, friend, you are best player about any partner can only dream in my opinion.
Way of play depend why you play great game Bridge. If you play to enjoy only and for beauty of game, you are right to search exotic bids and play. If you like to win tourney where you play, you must keep things simple and effective. Proof of my words you can find watching vugraph - way of play of best players in the world is very simple, with few exceptions.
Hi Luis!
Friend, I wish you to have enough energy and will to pass through the way you choose - very hard way, believe me . If you know how many time I should explain to my partner or/and my team-mates, how I could after long thinking to find way to go down on simple contract, played at other table for few seconds... and receive penalty for slow play as prise :'(.
In your case question will be probably: "Luis, why you dont think about simple possibility of leading from singleton/doubleton HE?" In my case: "Misho, what more than 2 good K can you have to make such easy contract?"
I wish you luck friends, you love Bridge very much and deserve it!
Misho

[luis]

Quote

Hi Ben!
I dont played it, was Rumen, I kibitz him. Easy to find board if you search for "Rumen" in "myhands": http://bridgebase.lunarpages.com/cgi-bin/h...fetchlin=687821. I just quote comments of Rumen - he is probably greatest bulgarian player all time and I carefully listen and try to learn from him. Ben, friend, you are best player about any partner can only dream in my opinion.
Way of play depend why you play great game Bridge. If you play to enjoy only and for beauty of game, you are right to search exotic bids and play. If you like to win tourney where you play, you must keep things simple and effective. Proof of my words you can find watching vugraph - way of play of best players in the world is very simple, with few exceptions.
Hi Luis!
Friend, I wish you to have enough energy and will to pass through the way you choose - very hard way, believe me . If you know how many time I should explain to my partner or/and my team-mates, how I could after long thinking to find way to go down on simple contract, played at other table for few seconds... and receive penalty for slow play as prise :'(.
In your case question will be probably: "Luis, why you dont think about simple possibility of leading from singleton/doubleton HE?" In my case: "Misho, what more than 2 good K can you have to make such easy contract?"
I wish you luck friends, you love Bridge very much and deserve it!

Misho

Good players don't lead from shortness against grand slams, that's why I don't think the heart lead can be a singleton or doubleton.

[inquiry]

Quote

I dont played it, was Rumen, I kibitz him. Easy to find board if you search for "Rumen" in "myhands": http://bridgebase.lunarpages.com/cgi-bin/h...fetchlin=687821. I just quote comments of Rumen - he is probably greatest bulgarian player all time and I carefully listen and try to learn from him. Ben, friend, you are best player about any partner can only dream in my opinion.
Way of play depend why you play great game Bridge. If you play to enjoy only and for beauty of game, you are right to search exotic bids and play. If you like to win tourney where you play, you must keep things simple and effective. Proof of my words you can find watching vugraph - way of play of best players in the world is very simple, with few exceptions.

Aha.... Rumen was playing against Flatbrain's team. I was kibitizing at one table, you at the other. So it was just played in this match... .mystery solved.

There is only one way to win regularly at bridge, make fewer mistakes than the other guys. The winners are the ones who don't destroy their own chances. The great plays (entry squeeze, compound squeeze, steppingstones, etc), are neat, but in the long run you can win and place repeatedly without knowing very much about them. But then, playing to not make a mistake is not nearly as exciting for me. I like the challenge of the great hand. Perhpas i spend to much time looking for the cute play, this is one reason I kibitiz more than I play, it gives me time to study deeper into the holding without worrying about bidding or following suit. This is also why I post interesting hands here. Not to point out flaws in one line or the other, but to show what else might be there.

Ben

[luke warm]

just for the sake of discussion, what do you think of one of barry crane's 'commandments', don't bid a grand in team play? playing with him, 6S would be the bid else you'd sit next time (whether 7 made or not)

[inquiry]

Quote

just for the sake of discussion, what do you think of one of barry crane's 'commandments', don't bid a grand in team play? playing with him, 6S would be the bid else you'd sit next time (whether 7 made or not)

Barry was demonstratably the best matchpoint strategist of all time. I said MATCHPOINTS. However, he was also very good at imps. If you look as the odds, to bid a vul grand slam, you need about 74% chance to make, because you lose 17 imps when you are wrong and gain only 13 imps when you are right. Unless you play a relay system, it is too difficult to determine the odds this accurately. And nothing is worse than to bring back 7S -1 to your partners only to discover that your opponents only got to 4S. I once played 7Clubs down one, vul, when my opponents didn't even bid game. Factoring these in, makes Barry's advice very very sound. Especially if your opponents are not world class. Sadly, I bid too many grand slams... i would be much better off if I had followed barry's advice. But some of the grand slams have won big matches for me.

Ben

[mishovnbg]

Quote

Good players don't lead from shortness against grand slams, that's why I don't think the heart lead can be a singleton or doubleton.

Hi Luis!
Good players also not lead 9 from 98xxx against grand, to not solve possible declarers problem of finesse/ruff finesse HE or identify HE J for squeese ;D.
Misho

[Stephen Tu]

Quote

If you look as the odds, to bid a vul grand slam, you need about 74% chance to make, because you lose 17 imps when you are wrong and gain only 13 imps when you are right.

Your math is faulty here. If you are certain your opposition will bid the small slam, the breakeven point will be 17/30 or 56.67%, not 74%. It's right to bid grands aggressively at IMPS, if and only if you are sure the opponents will bid at least the small (& the correct small, if there is choice of strain). The odds only go up to 74% or even higher if there is a significant chance they will stop in game.

[luke warm]

Quote

Quote

If you look as the odds, to bid a vul grand slam, you need about 74% chance to make, because you lose 17 imps when you are wrong and gain only 13 imps when you are right.

Your math is faulty here. If you are certain your opposition will bid the small slam, the breakeven point will be 17/30 or 56.67%, not 74%. It's right to bid grands aggressively at IMPS, if and only if you are sure the opponents will bid at least the small (& the correct small, if there is choice of strain). The odds only go up to 74% or even higher if there is a significant chance they will stop in game.

maybe you're right, but at imps (usually teams) the risks *usually* outweigh the gains... i'd hate to go to my teammates off one in a cold slam