[Winstonm]

Scoring: IMP

p-1♥-1♠-2♠
p-4♥-p-p-p

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In a team game, the contract was the same at both tables and so was the lead and play to the first two tricks: LHO led the spade King ducked and South won the continuation. At this point play diverged. Barring some bizarre uppercut when LHO holds 7 spades and the Jx or Qx of hearts, the only danger obviously is losing 2 heart tricks. I chose to lead low to the 10 and was rewarded when LHO showed out. At the other table, the heart Ace was cashed and thereafter there was no way to recover.

Although the safety play produced a vulnerable game swing, I'm not sure if it is right, but I have lots of trouble with going down in cold games at imps. It is hard to explain to partner and teammates how the 1-imp insurance policy is overpriced.

Thoughts?

[awm]

Well we can work out the odds. The heart break is:

2-2 about 6/16 times
3-1 about 8/16 times
4-0 about 2/16 times

By taking this safety play, you go down only if hearts are 4-0 offside. Otherwise you will always make ten tricks (barring some really weird break in a side suit). Assuming the other side doesn't take the safety play:

Lose 1 IMP 6/16 times (if hearts are 3-1 you push the board).
Gain 12 IMPs 1/16 times (hearts 4-0 onside).

Expected IMPs gained/lost over other table: 3/8 IMP.

So the safety play looks right in expectation.

The only safety plays that are usually bad are the ones where you throw a virtually-certain overtrick to guard against a very unlikely position. A 4-0 break in a 9-card fit is actually not that unlikely, and the overtrick here was less than 50%.

[pclayton]

I kibbed this hand.

The safety play was nice, but why not go the board and lead a heart up? If RHO follows small, you can try the 8 and possibly gain a tempo for an overtrick.

I also can't find a lot of sound reasons to duck the spade; not that it matters a whole lot either.