[Echognome]

Scoring: IMP

1♣(1) - 1NT(2)
2♣® - 2♦(2)
2♥® - 2♠(2)
2NT® - 3♣(3)
3♥(4) - 3♠(5)
3NT (6) - 4NT (7)
?

---

® relay
(1) 16+ any
(2) positive values, shape showing
(3) 3=4=3=3
(4) weak relay
(5) Not 13+hcp, with 4+ controls
(6) To play
(7) Around 15 hcp

This was a hand discussed at the pub after the league matches last night. You have this great combined strength of 33 hcps. However, you know the hands don't fit well and that 6NT is going to be on a finesse.

My question for you is what factors would affect your decision to bid the slam anyway or to stay low? Should we predict the auction at the other table and judge our opponents on this? What state of the match would suggest bidding vs passing? etc.

[Gerben42]

In normal situations I don't bid slams that are at best on finesse so I will stay away.
However when I am in front and know they will bid it at the other table (as here) I will bid it to avoid a swing.

Predicted auction in other room:

1♣ 1♥
2NT 6NT

Nothing to do about that now.

[pclayton]

Normally you would bid the slam if you are way up or way down, since its a cinch that pair playing simple methods will bid it.

If the match is relatively close, then go ahead and use your judgement.

The ♥AJ opposite 4 bugs me.

Even though we don't have a trick source, we have potential in ALL four suits. I'm sure there are squeeze possibilities galore too.

Matt; what is 5N here? Would pard take it as 'I need just a little bit more'?

Kxx, Kxxx, Axx, AJx is sort of what I expect. Slam isn't real good. On a real bad day, NINE tricks are the limit. Add in the black 10's, and its better. Add in the red 10's, and its playable. But it still isn't cold, or even better than 50-50.

[cherdano]

pclayton, on Feb 7 2006, 10:43 PM, said:

Kxx, Kxxx, Axx, AJx is sort of what I expect. Slam isn't real good. On a real bad day, NINE tricks are the limit. Add in the black 10's, and its better. Add in the red 10's, and its playable. But it still isn't cold, or even better than 50-50.

If I understood Matt right, responder has denied 4 controls. So you know partner has one ace and one king, and so you know you have to finesse one king.

By the way, it is not clear to me that this slam will be bid at the other table. Responders has 15 points, but mostly Q and J, and the dreaded 4333, so he may just bid 4N.

Arend

[awm]

Well, partner's denied holding 13+ hcp and 4+ controls. But partner does have 15(+) hcp. So this means at most 3 controls. With 33 combined, the only way to be missing 3 controls is if you're off exactly an ace and a king and have all other cards. So partner's hand is one of these four:

KJx
Qxxx
AQx
QJx

Opposite this hand, you have four spades, three diamonds, two clubs, one heart. This is only ten tricks. Even if the heart king is onside you have only eleven. You will have to fall back on either clubs breaking 3-3, or the heart king doubleton, or some squeeze chances that may be broken up by a duck of the club ace. This is substantially worse than 50-50.

Jxx
KQxx
AQx
QJx

Opposite this hand, you have one spade, four hearts, three diamonds, two clubs. Again this is only ten tricks. If the spade finesse is on, this brings you up to eleven (twelve if partner has the spade ten). Barring the spade spots, you can still make six if the clubs are 3-3, or if a black suit squeeze operates. This is still substantially less than 50%.

KJx
Qxxx
Qxx
AQJ

Opposite this hand, you have four spades, one heart, two diamonds, four clubs. You will make six if the heart finesse is on, which is exactly 50%.

Jxx
KQxx
Qxx
AQJ

Opposite this hand, you have one spade, four hearts, two diamonds, four clubs. Again it comes down to the spade finesse.

--------

Now that we've considered the possibilities of partner's hand, I think you really don't want to be in slam opposite the first two hands. My recommendation is somewhat situational:

(1) If you're ahead substantially in a win/loss match, then bid the slam in any case. It will be bid at the other table playing standard methods. Best to push the board.

(2) If you feel that you're ahead or rate to win, but it is not clear-cut, or if your margin of victory is important, try to find out whether partner has the ♣A. With the ♣A, the slam is 50-50 and you should bid it because it will probably be bid at the other table and you don't want to risk even money on a big win or big loss with this hand. Without the ♣A you can play 5NT with essentially total safety. If you can't find out about the ♣A and still stop below slam, then I recommend not bidding the slam because it's less than 50-50 overall.

(3) If you feel you're losing the match or rate to lose, then do not bid the slam. It is at best even money to make, and in this situation you're happy to take even odds at a big win or big loss. This is a potential positive swing because of system and in a match where you need all the help you can get, take advantage of it.

[pclayton]

Did Matt's post not say that 3♠ was "4+ controls"???

[Gerben42]

Unfortunate wording. Your partner has 3 controls and about 15 HCP as with 4+ controls he would have responded differently to the weak relay. By the way, notice the luxury that you can find out which finesse you will have to take by starting denial cuebids if you were planning on bidding slam anyway

[000002]

awm, on Feb 7 2006, 04:02 PM, said:

Well, partner's denied holding 13+ hcp and 4+ controls. But partner does have 15(+) hcp. So this means at most 3 controls. With 33 combined, the only way to be missing 3 controls is if you're off exactly an ace and a king and have all other cards. So partner's hand is one of these four:

KJx
Qxxx
AQx
QJx

Opposite this hand, you have four spades, three diamonds, two clubs, one heart. This is only ten tricks. Even if the heart king is onside you have only eleven. You will have to fall back on either clubs breaking 3-3, or the heart king doubleton, or some squeeze chances that may be broken up by a duck of the club ace. This is substantially worse than 50-50.

Jxx
KQxx
AQx
QJx

Opposite this hand, you have one spade, four hearts, three diamonds, two clubs. Again this is only ten tricks. If the spade finesse is on, this brings you up to eleven (twelve if partner has the spade ten). Barring the spade spots, you can still make six if the clubs are 3-3, or if a black suit squeeze operates. This is still substantially less than 50%.

KJx
Qxxx
Qxx
AQJ

Opposite this hand, you have four spades, one heart, two diamonds, four clubs. You will make six if the heart finesse is on, which is exactly 50%.

Jxx
KQxx
Qxx
AQJ

Opposite this hand, you have one spade, four hearts, two diamonds, four clubs. Again it comes down to the spade finesse.

--------

Now that we've considered the possibilities of partner's hand, I think you really don't want to be in slam opposite the first two hands. My recommendation is somewhat situational:

(1) If you're ahead substantially in a win/loss match, then bid the slam in any case. It will be bid at the other table playing standard methods. Best to push the board.

(2) If you feel that you're ahead or rate to win, but it is not clear-cut, or if your margin of victory is important, try to find out whether partner has the ♣A. With the ♣A, the slam is 50-50 and you should bid it because it will probably be bid at the other table and you don't want to risk even money on a big win or big loss with this hand. Without the ♣A you can play 5NT with essentially total safety. If you can't find out about the ♣A and still stop below slam, then I recommend not bidding the slam because it's less than 50-50 overall.

(3) If you feel you're losing the match or rate to lose, then do not bid the slam. It is at best even money to make, and in this situation you're happy to take even odds at a big win or big loss. This is a potential positive swing because of system and in a match where you need all the help you can get, take advantage of it.

SPLENDIDLY COMMENTATE

[cherdano]

By the way, how about starting cue-bidding with the hope of getting a helpful lead-directing double? Wouldn't it be cool to claim before the opening lead on the basis of a proven finesse?

Arend