[olegru]

Teams. In we middle of 12 boards match you are 20 imps down.

All vul. You are West.
South open 2 ♠ and Partner double it on the 4th sit.

Scoring: IMP

(2♠) - pass - (pass) - dbl
(pass)- ?

---

What will you bid and why?

[han]

I pass, the spade spots guarantee a second trump trick. Partner's double shouldn't be on air, he is forcing us to the 3-level red.

[P_Marlowe]

2NT (Lebensohl), followed by 3NT,
showing a solid stopper in spade.

I will try to go after our contract,
maybe partner surprises us, i.e.
he feuses to bid 3C.

Marlowe

[Kalvan14]

Pass. I'm bringing 3 tricks to defence, in addition to my 2 Qs, which should be worth more in defence than in attack.

[luis]

3NT
While it is true that 2♠ is probably going down some number of tricks it is also true that we migh have a slam or grand slam in this hand, pd is unlimited so passing 2♠x is too unilateral. If pd has a big hand with clubs, diamonds, or hearts with a singleton in spades then all my values will work.
With a big hand pd will bid his suit over 3NT and I will be happy to cuebid.

[HeartA]

luis, on Feb 6 2006, 05:56 PM, said:

3NT
While it is true that 2♠ is probably going down some number of tricks it is also true that we migh have a slam or grand slam in this hand, pd is unlimited so passing 2♠x is too unilateral. If pd has a big hand with clubs, diamonds, or hearts with a singleton in spades then all my values will work.
With a big hand pd will bid his suit over 3NT and I will be happy to cuebid.

same for me.

[whereagles]

luis, on Feb 6 2006, 10:56 PM, said:

3NT
While it is true that 2♠ is probably going down some number of tricks it is also true that we migh have a slam or grand slam in this hand

A.. slam??? Opposite

x
AKxx
Kxxx
Jxxx

the only plus you're likely to get is pass. And that's not even the weakest hand pard can have.

[Free]

Depends on style in 4th seat. If it's a good Dbl, then I'll bid 3NT. Otherwise it's an awful problem!

[helene_t]

Jlall, on Feb 7 2006, 01:15 AM, said:

I would pass. If I felt like there was some gurantee we'd make 3N I'd bid it, but here it may just be converting a plus into a minus.

Same here.

[Gerben42]

Pass. 3NT comes with no guarantees.

[joker_gib]

I think I will also pass.

Alain

[luis]

whereagles, on Feb 7 2006, 09:38 AM, said:

luis, on Feb 6 2006, 10:56 PM, said:

3NT
While it is true that 2♠ is probably going down some number of tricks it is also true that we migh have a slam or grand slam in this hand

A.. slam??? Opposite

x
AKxx
Kxxx
Jxxx

the only plus you're likely to get is pass. And that's not even the weakest hand pard can have.

True, but pd can also have a hand where you are cold for 7

[whereagles]

luis, on Feb 7 2006, 01:57 PM, said:

True, but pd can also have a hand where you are cold for 7

Indeed. But which is more likely? The above

x
AKxx
Kxxx
Jxxx

or

x
AKxx
Kxx
AKxxx

I'd say the first... but if you feel lucky, by all means go for the grand

[luis]

whereagles, on Feb 7 2006, 02:18 PM, said:

luis, on Feb 7 2006, 01:57 PM, said:

True, but pd can also have a hand where you are cold for 7

Indeed. But which is more likely? The above

x
AKxx
Kxxx
Jxxx

or

x
AKxx
Kxx
AKxxx

I'd say the first... but if you feel lucky, by all means go for the grand

Whereeagles, I don't have the answer to the question, maybe somebody can run a simulation to determine what is best.

My reasoning is:
Pd might have:
1- A light takeout double with shape (as you posted)
2- A very strong hand
3- A balanced hand with 13-15 hcp

With 1 you have to compare 2♠x vs 3NT probably 2♠x wins some imps in average.
With 2 when comparing 2♠x vs 6x or 7x you will lose many imps
With 3 2♠x vs 3NT is probably close in terms of imps

Then if we compute how likely is 1,2 and 3 we can determine if pass or 3NT is better in average. I have the feeling 3NT is better because it covers the following scenarios:

- When pd has a big hand you can discover a slam or grand slam
- When 2♠x makes you are not in the tragic 2♠x
- When 3NT makes and you can't get a lot from 2♠x

But as I said I won't claim pass is wrong and 3NT is right a simulation will give us a better understanding.

Luis

[000002]

pass is tensive,3nt is too truculent.
down 4 is 1100 ,better than 6♣ 1370 since it's more safety & more frequency.

[badderzboy]

Partner has doubled so why not help him by describing our hand to him..

We have ♠s double stopped, we don't have 4♥s, we don't have a long minor and we're better than 6-9 oh 3NT accomplishes all in one bid guess I'll do that then...

If partner has a big hand then he can go further ( I suspect not as RHO didn't continue the barrage in 3rd seat)...

Steve

[awm]

I pass, but not because I think it's the right bid.

Down by a bunch, we are searching for swings. I suspect that 3NT is the "normal" contract on these cards. If it's not, then partner probably has a light balancing double and we're more likely to win by defending (nick 2♠ a trick or so) than by bidding.

Passing produces a swing if the weak two bid wasn't opened at the other table, or if the player with my hand at the other table chooses 3NT (which may be a more normal, or even more successful percentage-wise call). These swings are roughly equally likely to be wins or losses... so state of the match dictates to take them. Passing is more likely to produce a swing board than bidding.

[jdeegan]

Pass, but imo it is close.
RHO is odds on to get at least four spade tricks: +1100 for us versus +1390. With one outside trick, is +800 for us versus +1370 (assuming it is bid at the other table). With two outside tricks, it is +500 for us versus +630ish in game. All the foregoing situations favor bidding on, but I need a favorable swing, and +200 or +500 versus -100 is just the ticket. It is also, by far, the single most likely outcome.

Further, the contact and/or play at the other table may be suboptimal. Take the sure plus and run.

[han]

I like awm's reason for passing. I do think it is the "right" call though .