[Chamaco]

tysen2k, on Jan 30 2006, 05:56 PM, said:

I chose pass, but I decided to do a little GIB simulation and see what it thought.  GIB thinks 3♠ is a clear winner by a very wide margin.  Pass is its 4th choice after 4♦ and 3NT respectively.

The reason seems to be because of the complete lack of defense.  GIB expects to go down more often than not in 3♠ (average predicted score -71) but expects 3♥ to make frequently as well (average score -356).

Interesting...

Tysen

What are GIB's requirements for the doubler's hand ?

[mikeh]

tysen2k, on Jan 30 2006, 12:56 PM, said:

I chose pass, but I decided to do a little GIB simulation and see what it thought.  GIB thinks 3♠ is a clear winner by a very wide margin.  Pass is its 4th choice after 4♦ and 3NT respectively.

The reason seems to be because of the complete lack of defense.  GIB expects to go down more often than not in 3♠ (average predicted score -71) but expects 3♥ to make frequently as well (average score -356).

Interesting...

Tysen

I haven't had the time to do a simulation, but I very strongly doubt that I would agree with your constraints. Inadequate defence??? I have a trick and I surely expect partner to have approximately 50% or more of the remaining high card points. AKxx x AQxx AJxx is a typical hand for him, and they are not making 3♥ (unless ♠ are 5-1 and the ♦K is offside, and then 3♠ doubled is pretty gruesome).

If he would double a second time with a good 14 count, I'd agree with you, but I also wouldn't play much with that partner

Will 3♥ always go down opposite a hand I would expect for partner? No, but I refuse to believe that 3♥ will make more than, say, 10-15 % of the time, and when it does, we are going for 300 or more our way and thus the loss by passing is reduced.

[Al_U_Card]

I rejected the initial desire to bid 3S (keep it low when you are looking at a disaster in the making) because the preempt warned me that:
a)S are likely to split badly
b)if they have a fit so do we
c) pard's expectations may have changed between doubles, but his hand hasn't

I am surprised that the simulation result favors 3S but that may be due to the lower level.

[tysen2k]

Chamaco, on Jan 30 2006, 09:58 AM, said:

What are GIB's requirements for the doubler's hand ?

I don't have GIB on this computer right now, but I'll try and remember to look it up later. Maybe someone else with GIB that's familiar with the bridge.exe program can run it for me and see what it considers the doubler should have. I always take simulations with a grain of salt, but they are still worth thinking about.

[Gerben42]

As a 3NT bidder maybe I'm not passing enough but I can go 11 down in 3NT before it gets more expensive than 3♥X made. If they double I will SOS but I think this is unlikely enough not to bid 4♦ right away.

[keylime]

Adjunct time: At 3H doubled, what do you LEAD and why?

[Kalvan14]

3♠: pard does not have 5 spades
3NT: where are my tricks coming from?
4♦: possibly my best contract
pass: oppos are quite likely to be 1 or 2 down in 3♥X.

Overall, and without a lot of confidence, I pass.

[arrows]

I pass without looking at my cards a second time.

If I am not happy with partner leaving the double in, I won't double.

[han]

Good job Justin!

I enter this thread a bit late, but I think I would also pass.

[mike777]

Jlall, on Jan 31 2006, 12:33 AM, said:

I chose to pass. This is not generally my style, but it seemed right to me at the time for whatever reasons (maybe my style has changed).

Partner had AKxx -- KJx AKTxxx. There was a club void out and we were only able to get 2 spades a heart and a diamond for -530.

At the other table after the same start they pulled to 4D, and partners hand bid 5 diamonds(!) instead of 5C. This was Xed and -1400, so we won 14 imps for -530 lol. If we had pulled to 4D I'm sure our partner would have bid 5C which would go down a couple undoubled. All's well that ends well.

Is 5C after 3H by LHO a reasonable choice in flight A?
What is the max for x and then 4clubs after LHO bids 3H?

[Chamaco]

I think this illustrates yet another time the adage "when in doubt, try to avoid takeout double with a void in opps suit".
("doubt" here would be only about the second round double IMO)


Very very oftenn, doubling with a void in opps suit does not let pard (even if he is world class !) evaluate well the defensive vs offensive power of the hand: if the double is pulled, all is well (of course! all those who advocate t/o doubles with a void do it because "all suits supported), but when the double is left in (which is more likely, since pard will usually have length if we are void), is is very frequent that our eventual plus (if any), is less rewarding than an alternative contract for our side.

[luis]

I must say I don't like the second double.
I already hate doubling wiht a void so doing it twice is bad for my heart.
4♣ should be more healthy he already doubled the first time so doubling again is just tempting a bad decision from you.

[FrancesHinden]

This reminds me of a hand in a match we played last Saturday.

Scoring: IMP

---

The auction at both tables was
2S x 4S P
P x all pass

I can't really see an alternative. You can say East shouldn't double on a void the second time, but it's hardly implausible that 4Sx is going to be the right spot.

[Walddk]

One has to live with 500 instead of 1430 or 1370. I can't see an alternative to double over 4♠, and West must surely sit for it. That's what pre-empts are for; sometimes there is no room for scientific investigation.

Roland

[keylime]

Well said Roland.

[Chamaco]

FrancesHinden, on Jan 31 2006, 02:10 PM, said:

I can't really see an alternative. You can say East shouldn't double on a void the second time, but it's hardly implausible that 4Sx is going to be the right spot.

What about 4NT ?
(I'd bid 4NT even over a direct 4S opener)

The offense/defense ratio suggests to me that in a suit contract, the 5-level should hardly be too high, but again, I am neither good nor experienced as most Forum posters here.