[haver]

Match points! - 4 Sp is the contract, opps already have 2 tricks. Your turn to play trumps, communication is no problem:

J,8,7,6,3 A,Q,9,4

As i see, you have 1 situ where starting small to Q is winner - that is 0-4 break behind A,Q, but then if you start J you go down in the contract..., and there is 1 situ when you make 1 overtrick if you start J - K, 10, x under the A,Q
3:1 situ is more common than 4:0 - so how would you play?

[luke warm]

if i have no more loses outside trump suit, i play low to ace, reenter hand, play low toward queen/nine

[haver]

Then you lose 1 trump trick - and all who play J toward A, Q win 45% over you making 1 more trick

[luke warm]

to me there's really no choice here (given no hints in the bidding).. you're missing K, 10, 5, 2.. now divide them anyway you wish, and it seems to me that the only way to lose 2 tricks is by finessing

[Free]

I play small to the Q (except if RHO doesn't follow suit, then I play to the Ace). If divided 4-0 I lose only 1 trick, 3-1 also 1 trick, and 2-2 it's a 50% that I lose only 1 trick...

[inquiry]

Low to the queen never loses two trump tricks.

If RHO has all four, LHO shows out, and you can play low to the jack and then hook the Ten later. If RHO shows out, you can play Queen or ACE, and hook the ten of the way back to the jack. So stop worrying about losing two tricks with low to the queen.

At imps, you simply lead low towards the queen and score up the game. But Matchpoints is really different. Because you can lose two tricks only if you start the spade JACK, of course, so the question is how are you going to play to hold losers to 0 in the suit.


LHO  RHO  %  SA  SQ  SJ S8
-  KTxx  4.783  1  1  0  0
x  KTx  12.435  1  1  0  0
xx  KT  6.783  1  0  0  0
T  Kxx  6.217  1  0  0  1
Tx  Kx  13.565  1  0  1  1
Txx  K  6.217  0  0  1  0
K  Txx  6.217  0  1  1  1
Kx  Tx  13.565  1  1  1  1
Kxx  T  6.217  1  1  1  1
KT  xx  6.783  1  1  1  2
KTx  x  12.435  1  1  1  2
KTxx  -  4.783  1  1  2  1

Using this table, and ignoring the plays that lose 1 tricks, lets examine the plays that lose 0 or 2.

SPADE A 12.4% for 0 no chance to lose 2
SPADE Q 32.9% for 0 no chance to lose 2
SPADE J 30.2% for 0, 4.8% to lose 2
SPADE 8 23.4% for 0, 12.4 to lose 2

Now, since it is magnitude of change, leading low to the spade QUEEN is the big winner.

[luke warm]

nice work, but on your 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 6th examples you have zero losers for spade Q... how?

in real life i'd still start by playing to the ace first, it can never lose and can win by dropping stiff king either side *and* by conceivably saving another trump trick (potential ruff, for example).. ops have 2 tricks already, the only possible way they can set me is by trumping something.. leading to ace first prevents that.. imo

[paulg]

Quote

in real life i'd still start by playing to the ace first, it can never lose and can win by dropping stiff king either side *and* by conceivably saving another trump trick (potential ruff, for example).. ops have 2 tricks already, the only possible way they can set me is by trumping something.. leading to ace first prevents that.. imo

This may be a valid line at teams, but here at matchpoints making the contract is often insufficient - playing the ace only wins with singleton King offside and is clearly inferior to playing to the Queen (which wins with singleton ten offside and also to Kx). Making 10 tricks with 11 available will score as poorly as going down.

This will often be true even if there are ruffs threatened (matchpoints is a strange game) - however knowledge of the distribution of other suits will alter the probabilities Ben has posted, perhaps to the extent that your line may be correct.

paul

[Free]

Quote

nice work, but on your 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 6th examples you have zero losers for spade Q... how?

If the 10 drops on your queen, you finesse again, if it doesn't you play the ace. If the King falls before the AQ, you also don't lose a trick because you will play the Ace then...

[flytoox]

if this is matchpoint,then u need to consider what the field contract might be. if you think some might play 3n and can only get 9 tricks, then u may try safety play here by finesse queen first. if u think all will play 4s, then you may risk to lead jack first. lead jack first only lose when trump breaks 4-0 behind ur aqxx.

[inquiry]

Quote

nice work, but on your 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 6th examples you have zero losers for spade Q... how?

3rd xx KT 6.783 1 0 0 0

When the Queen holds (and the Ten showed on the right), play the ACE, drop the King, or if you prefer, go back to dummy and lead the JACK to king.

4th T Kxx 6.217 1 0 0 1

When the Queen wins, the Ten falls offside. Go back to dummy and lead J or 8 or small and hook if EAST plays small. Win ACe if he plays the king, and pull last trump.

5th Tx Kx 13.565 1 0 1 1

After Queen holds and neither king nor ten has shown up, cash the ACE.

6th Txx K 6.217 0 0 1 0

When you lead small towards the queen, the king shows up BEFORE you play the queen. So of course, now you don't play the QUEEN, but instead win the Ace then two more...(it is true of all of these hands that if EAST plays the KING before you play the QUEEN that you should not then play the QUEEN. :-)

As far as "real world" and cashing the ACE first, I suggest you need to read the condition of contest again, this was matchpoints.

[luke warm]

i was going by this table (i assumed RHO was to the left of A, Q)

LHO RHO % SA SQ SJ
xx KT 6.783 1 0 0
T Kxx 6.217 1 0 0
Tx Kx 13.565 1 0 1
Txx K 6.217 0 0 1

i just put 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 6th in from the table.. i could be looking at it wrong, but you seem to show the SQ loses 0 tricks in each of those, when in fact it loses a trick in each

as for matchpoints vs. imps, yes my line is safer (more imp oriented), but at the table a lot would depend on the earlier play.. having lost 2 tricks already, i'd really think about playing ace first if i felt there was a chance for a ruff, should the finesse lose

will everyone play the queen? i don't know.. if they do, and if it wins, i'd be zero.. everyone here would (it seems) play the queen first... since it can never lose 2 tricks (neither can the ace), all things being equal (ie., no ruff) maybe it is better to play the queen (at matchpoints)

all i'm saying is, all things are seldom equal.. what happens at the table determines how most of us would play this

as an aside, how would you play this if declarer held the 10 and not the J?

[luis]

Low to the Queen is the correct play at matchpoints.

Luis