[easy]

You hold

A2


opposite


QT9876

how should you play this suit for 1 loser. No other information is available

What is the highest percentage play pls. And if you know what is the actual % of winning line.
lets here from all of our statitician friends pls.

(Hand came up yesterday in ebl cup)

[flytoox]

play q from hand. Fred mentioned this example in this site somewhere.

[inquiry]

Leading the queen works if WEST holds….  

Holding % of time
xxx  3.3
J  2.8
Jx  10.1
K  2.8
Kx  10.1
Kxx  10.1
Kxxx  2.8
KJ  3.3
KJx  10.1
Total 55.9
 
Leading ACE and then low to the Queen works if EAST holds.
East hold %
KJx  10.1
KJ  3.3
Kxxx  2.8
Kxx  10.1
Kx  10.1
K  2.8
Jxxx  2.8
J  2.8
xxx  3.3
Total 48.6%

As usual Fred was absolutely correct.

Ben

[luke warm]

something like this happend on vugraph this past weekend, i'm sure fred remembers because there was a discussion about it at the time... i mentioned to him leading the queen, saying something inane like "this is your tip eh?"... he said, "with 7 trumps yes, i'm not sure about 8"... i think the consensus among the experts present was, lead to the ace and back toward queen

[easy]

yes this was the hand fred had mentioned. I however could not find an example in bridge encyclopedia thus i put it to our group here. After having posted the question i found a spot on richard pavlicek's site that shows various percentages. Those % were the same / similar to the ones Ben posted.

Using the utility that richard has on his site u must add the various applicable % to come up with the best (in a vacuum) play. Anyone have a site where all the work is done and the total is shown

[inquiry]

Quote

Using the utility that richard has on his site u must add the various applicable % to come up with the best (in a vacuum) play. Anyone have a site where all the work is done and the total is shown

No better odds calculator on line than....
http://www.automaton.../en/OddsTbl.htm

He has (or had) some nice articles on calculating odds at one time on his page as well.

Ben

[easy]

how about a and low to the T. Unless im misreading the table seems to be 58.8 %. am i misreading the results?

[fred]

Quote

Leading the queen works if WEST holds….   

Holding % of time
xxx   3.3
J   2.8
Jx   10.1
K   2.8
Kx   10.1
Kxx   10.1
Kxxx   2.8
KJ   3.3
KJx   10.1
Total 55.9
   
Leading ACE and then low to the Queen works if EAST holds.
East hold %
KJx   10.1
KJ   3.3
Kxxx   2.8
Kxx   10.1
Kx   10.1
K   2.8
Jxxx   2.8
J   2.8
xxx   3.3
Total 48.6%

As usual Fred was absolutely correct.

Ben

I think I was correct (thanks for the "as usual" but I make
plenty of mistakes - for some reason I had a good weekend!),
but I think you may have misunderstood what I said.

I said with a 5-2 fit you should lead the Queen. This I know
for sure.

I said I did not know what was right with 6-2, but tried to
figure it out during the broadcast.

My conclusion was Ace and another was right (but only by
the difference of 1 stiff King).

This would contradict your analysis above, but you seem to
have left out Jx with East (10.1%) from your calculations of
the 2nd line. That would make low to the Ace 3.3% better
(which is the value of the singleton King as I suggested).

Fred Gitelman
Bridge Base Inc.
www.bridgebase.com

[EricK]

Quote

Leading the queen works if WEST holds….   

Holding % of time
xxx   3.3
J   2.8
Jx   10.1
K   2.8
Kx   10.1
Kxx   10.1
Kxxx   2.8
KJ   3.3
KJx   10.1
Total 55.9
   
Leading ACE and then low to the Queen works if EAST holds.
East hold %
KJx   10.1
KJ   3.3
Kxxx   2.8
Kxx   10.1
Kx   10.1
K   2.8
Jxxx   2.8
J   2.8
xxx   3.3
Total 48.6%

As usual Fred was absolutely correct.

Ben

Have you missed Jx from the second list.

(modified) I see Fred has just posted the same thing.

Eric

[mishovnbg]

Hi Fred!
Such thing like percentage play exist of course, but most of time as exuse for bad play . If you like to read about change of percents during play, even after lead: http://rpbridge.net/7z75.htm , author Richard Pavlicek.
Misho

[inquiry]

I did miss the Jx... I cut and pasted the results from the table into excel so it could do the additions for me, and I either missed a row or forgot to mark the one with RHO Jx.... with the correction, as noted by everyone above (blush), spade ACE is best best play.

The odds are spade Q... 55.9

Spade ACE and low to the Queen 58.8, and
Spade ACE and low to the Ten also 58.8

(Also note after spade ACE, low the Queen or Ten are equal... one loses to Kx with West, the other to Jx with West)
Ben

[luis]

Ace and then low to the T or Q is the percentage play.
As usual Fred was right as well as many fello BBF posters.

Luis