[tysen2k]

kfgauss, on Oct 20 2005, 05:56 PM, said:

tysen2k, on Oct 20 2005, 09:08 PM, said:

H7: -392.20 -> 0.47
SJ: -397.60 -> 0.36

H9: -391.40 -> 0.20
S4: -393.70 -> 0.15

Why do H9 and S4 get better expected total points, but fewer expected imps vs the par contract compared with H7 and SJ, respectively?

Aside from the inconsistency, I can see some merit for H9 instead of H7 gaining occasionally, but when would S4 ever gain (double dummy) over SJ?

Andy

I was noticing that too. My guess is that some of the leads are slightly more likely to set the contract but also more frequently give up an overtrick. Since the score -> IMPs conversion is not linear you can get a lead that scores better in one way and not in the other.

My other thought was that I think (but I'm not sure) GIB gives a slight bonus to "signalling correctly." Since the rest of the play is double dummy, GIB intentionally gives a small penalty to leads like low from a doubleton since there is a chance that partner will be mislead in real play.

Tysen

[tysen2k]

I think a spade lead would be much better if our hand were weaker. As it is, I think almost any lead is okay. If we were stronger, then leading our best suit is likely best.