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The budget battles Is discussion possible?

#601 User is offline   hotShot 

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Posted 2011-August-08, 14:18

 hrothgar, on 2011-August-08, 13:30, said:

Raise your hands if you think that the Republican's deserve any significant portion of blame for the downgrade...

(Just to make sure, if folks have a strong belief that the Democrats and Republicans are equally blame for the cluster *****, that would also be interesting)

Unless you hacked my webcam, how will you know that I raised my hand? :D
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#602 User is offline   luke warm 

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Posted 2011-August-08, 15:48

 PassedOut, on 2011-August-08, 13:59, said:

I certainly think that the democrats share the blame for the debt (many democrats voted for the Bush tax cuts, the war in Iraq, and the unfunded Bush medicare entitlement), although there is no doubt that the republicans are primarily responsible.

But the tea party republicans were solely responsible for the debt ceiling crisis that lead to the downgrade.

how can you use the dems voting for something in one case to assign blame, but not the other?

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I'm still curious how you got the idea that the Ryan plan would cut $4 trillion from the deficit.

maybe it was obama's that cut $4T and ryan's that cut $5-6T... i don't think either plan is necessarily on the money, and i'm not enamored of many things in ryan's plan (he uses some unemployment numbers i'm not comfortable with)... i don't even know if the cbo has looked at obama's plan yet
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#603 User is offline   PassedOut 

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Posted 2011-August-08, 16:16

 luke warm, on 2011-August-08, 15:48, said:

maybe it was obama's that cut $4T and ryan's that cut $5-6T...

Ryan himself does not claim anywhere near that amount in deficit reduction.

Ryan's plan (discussed here and here) cuts less than $400 billion spread over a 10-year period beyond the amount that will be gained by Obama's planned troop reductions in Iraq and Afghanistan. His plan is certainly insufficient to get the US debt under control.

Ryan does plan to cut spending by $5.8 trillion, but most of that amount is offset by additional tax cuts, so it does not solve our deficit problem. By contrast, the Obama/Boehner plan reportedly had about $3.2 trillion in spending cuts plus about $0.8 trillion in additional revenue.
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#604 User is offline   mike777 

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Posted 2011-August-08, 17:45

Hopefully some compromise that centers around:

1) cuts in marginal tax rates in personal and corporate income
2) reduce rates of growth in entitlement spending through means testing, raising the ages.
3) revenue enhancements in the form of cuts in tax loopholes/deductions/govt subsidies to corps.
4) revenue enhancement via some sort of "other" tax increases
5) increased spending in some form of the social safety net/basic science research
6) decreased regulations in such areas as USA based energy production


The number one goal being jobs and growing GDP
A smaller goal but still important being deficit reduction via cuts/reduction in growth rates, increases/creating new taxes that increase the "tax base", and growing tax revenues via economic growth.
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#605 User is offline   Winstonm 

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Posted 2011-August-08, 18:05

The yield on the U.S. 10-year note fell to 2.40 today, down 18 basis points from yesterday showing that while the world was trying to dump the stocks (Dow -600) of companies making tremendous profits, they couldn't wait and were climbing all over each other to be first to put that money back to work in just-downgraded U.S. debt.

Rational actors and an efficient market. Hmmm.
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#606 User is offline   awm 

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Posted 2011-August-08, 21:24

 mike777, on 2011-August-08, 17:45, said:

Hopefully some compromise that centers around:

1) cuts in marginal tax rates in personal and corporate income
2) reduce rates of growth in entitlement spending through means testing, raising the ages.
3) revenue enhancements in the form of cuts in tax loopholes/deductions/govt subsidies to corps.
4) revenue enhancement via some sort of "other" tax increases
5) increased spending in some form of the social safety net/basic science research
6) decreased regulations in such areas as USA based energy production


I'd disagree with a lot of these. It's not clear to me why marginal tax rates need to be lowered. These rates are near to all-time lows, and the economy was doing much better at times in the past (i.e. Clinton presidency) when rates were substantially higher than they are today. Means testing for social security would potentially cost more money than it saves (because of the need for tracking wealth rather than just paying every retiree), and would turn social security into a welfare program for poor seniors which was never the intent. Raising ages for entitlements is bad too; medicare is a much better/more efficient system than private insurance so why should we force 65-67 year olds out of medicare? I'm all for revenue enhancements by cutting tax loopholes in principle, but in practice it's often tough to point to the "bad" loopholes that we want to cut. Sure, subsidies for ethanol and oil companies are on the chopping block, but these are small potatoes in the larger scheme of things. Increased spending on social safety net pretty much contradicts (2) doesn't it? As for regulation of USA energy production, if we had more regulation we might not have had that awful oil spill in the gulf a while back, and we might not have to worry so much about stuff like coal miners dying in unsafe mines (like happened sorta recently in west virginia).

With that said, I agree with the larger goals of jobs and growing gdp. What I'd like to see:

1) Redesign the way taxation of foreign profits works, so that companies are not rewarded for using accounting tricks to make it appear that their revenues are in some low-tax country (like Cayman islands) and then refusing to "repatriate" the funds. My (maybe naive) idea would be to have a corporate minimum tax rate (say around 25%) and demand that all profits be taxed at this rate or higher. Taxes actually paid overseas would be treated as an exemption.
2) Raise capital gains rates. The supposed benefits of having amazingly low capital gains rates have not really materialized (i.e. lousy economy despite 15% rate). At the same time, these rates create unfair situations where super-wealthy hedge fund managers pay lower rates than working class folks.
3) Give a tax break to companies that employ people here in the US (proportionate to the number of employees). This could be funded through the first two ideas, as well as eliminating the most ridiculous tax loopholes for businesses.
4) Reduce the number of tax exemptions for individuals. It is somewhat ridiculous that almost 50% of people are paying zero income tax. Asking working people to pay a very small amount (say 1% of income) would be mostly symbolic, but over massive numbers of people it could add up. Perhaps a more serious issue is that over a thousand tax returns came in last year with over a million dollars in income and zero tax liability.. something that really ought to be dealt with.
5) Lower the enrollment age for medicare. That's right, lower it. Perhaps counter-intuitively, this could actually save money if we ask the younger people (i.e. 55-65) signing up for medicare to pay higher premiums than the older folks. This would act as a "public option" at the upper end of the age scale, with the effect of reducing the cost of insurance for everyone else (a huge boon to business) by taking the oldest people out of the insurance pool. If most people in the 55-65 range took advantage of this deal, they could easily pay in more than they cost. The idea is to take baby steps towards single-payer, hopefully accruing some advantages along the way without totally dismantling the existing system.
6) Offer a short-term deal where people could retire early (say 60) and be fully eligible for social security. This would cost money, but would act as stimulus (retirees on social security spend most of their money) and also help the unemployment rate (some older unemployed could retire, some older employed folks might retire especially from blue-collar jobs allowing younger unemployed people to find work).
7) Reform immigration policy to make it easier for entrepreneurs, graduates of US colleges, and non-citizens serving in the US military to become legal residents.
8) Seriously reform military spending. We obviously want our military to keep us safe. At the same time, there are hugely expensive projects that were designed to fight a large-scale war against a super-power (i.e. cold-war era stuff) that will be of little practical use in the modern world. We can cut these. We don't need military bases all over the world; let our wealthy European allies defend themselves now that the threat of the Soviets is long gone. At the same time that the military budget is insanely high, we have sent troops into battle without adequate body armor! I believe that we can save a lot of money by cutting military spending, but even more important is to realign our spending to match our real needs (mostly counter-terrorism, elite strike forces like the seals, etc).
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#607 User is offline   y66 

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Posted 2011-August-09, 20:27

How Should Obama Answer the Stock Market's Wake-Up Call?

Brad DeLong's take via Krugman:

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If you were to ask me what thing--aside from the complete and immediate collapse of the Republican Party and the resignation of all of its legislators from both houses of the Congress: if the previous fifteen years had not taught me that Republican politicians have nothing useful to contribute to national governance the last three years would certainly have done so--would most give me confidence that America would surmount this current economic crisis, it would be personnel changes to put qualified people who saw the world as it was in the summer of 2009 into the key economic jobs:

Laura Tyson or someone like her to Treasury Secretary (recess-appointed, acting, whatever).
Larry Summers or someone like him to Fed Chair (recess-appointed, acting, whatever).
Alan Blinder or someone like him to CEA Chair (recess-appointed, acting, whatever)
Christy Romer or someone like her to Assistant to the President for Economic Policy.

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#608 User is offline   blackshoe 

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Posted 2011-August-09, 22:54

Re: Summers

Like Clinton, I'm not sure the advice Summers gave him to deregulate derivatives was good advice.
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#609 User is offline   y66 

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Posted 2011-August-10, 06:04

Yeah, not his finest policy moment. From your link:

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On May 7, 1998, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) issued a Concept Release soliciting input from regulators, academics, and practitioners to determine "how best to maintain adequate regulatory safeguards without impairing the ability of the OTC (Over-the-counter) derivatives market to grow and the ability of U.S. entities to remain competitive in the global financial marketplace." [22] On July 30, 1998, then-Deputy Secretary of the Treasury Summers testified before congress that "the parties to these kinds of contract are largely sophisticated financial institutions that would appear to be eminently capable of protecting themselves from fraud and counterparty insolvencies." Summers, like Greenspan and Rubin who also opposed the concept release, offered no proof that the contracts would not be misused by financial institutions. Instead, Summers stated that "to date there has been no clear evidence of a need for additional regulation of the institutional OTC derivatives market, and we would submit that proponents of such regulation must bear the burden of demonstrating that need." [23] This argument suggests that the default position in the disagreement was that Summers, Greenspan, and Rubin were right, and that anyone (i.e., Brooksley Born) who disagreed with them bore the burden of proving their position. In fact, subsequent events have proven that Summers, Rubin, and Greenspan misjudged the dangers posed by derivatives contracts.

He acknowledges this in an October 2008 column at ft.com:

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Events as well as ideas shape policy choices in democracies...

All of these considerations suggest that the pendulum will swing – and should swing – towards an enhanced role for government in saving the market system from its excesses and inadequacies.

Policymakers need to be attentive to potential government flaws as well. For example, they need to recognise that, even as events compel larger deficits in the short run, they reinforce the need for longer-term measures to keep government finances on a sound footing. They must also be wary of measures that have a short-term superficial appeal, yet have adverse long-term consequences.

Until he writes his memoirs, that's probably as close as he'll come to saying "That 1998 sh*t ain't the truth. I've seen some sh*t since then that's made me rethink my position. All I can say now is I'm trying, Ringo."

Which would be something.
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#610 User is offline   kenberg 

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Posted 2011-August-10, 06:12

 blackshoe, on 2011-August-09, 22:54, said:

Re: Summers

Like Clinton, I'm not sure the advice Summers gave him to deregulate derivatives was good advice.


The Wik article fascinated me, even starting with the personal stuff. In 1957 or so I took Economics, using the book of Paul Samuelson. So Samuelson -> Summers, and Larry Summers is his nephew. His parents are both economists, and another uncle is Kenneth Arrow. Whew! I grew up, shall we say, in a different environment.

Anyway, to some of the meat. The Wik article says:

Quote

The lack of regulation that allowed A.I.G. to sell hundreds of billions of dollars in credit default swaps on mortgage-backed securities was a direct result of efforts by the Treasury (first under Rubin and then under Summers), the Federal Reserve (under Greenspan), and the Securities and Exchange Commission (under Arthur Levitt) to deregulate the derivatives markets.


I lack the expertise to evaluate this claim. Rarely are things, especially economic matters, totally straightforward but, if we are to assess responsibility for what happened then certainly this has to be put into the pot.

Here, I think, is a dilemma. We desperately need brilliance and expertise, but brilliant expertise is not a guarantee of being right. I am virtually certain that Summers, Rubin and Greenspan are smarter than I am, and they have spent their lives studying financial matters at the highest level. They are not fools, they are not crooks, quite possibly they also were not right.

I don't think that the solution to this dilemma is to start taking economic advice from Michelle Bachman.
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#611 User is offline   hrothgar 

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Posted 2011-August-10, 06:22

 kenberg, on 2011-August-10, 06:12, said:


Here, I think, is a dilemma. We desperately need brilliance and expertise, but brilliant expertise is not a guarantee of being right. I am virtually certain that Summers, Rubin and Greenspan are smarter than I am, and they have spent their lives studying financial matters at the highest level. They are not fools, they are not crooks, quite possibly they also were not right.

I don't think that the solution to this dilemma is to start taking economic advice from Michelle Bachman.


Best quote in the thread
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#612 User is offline   luke warm 

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Posted 2011-August-10, 15:34

 kenberg, on 2011-August-10, 06:12, said:

I don't think that the solution to this dilemma is to start taking economic advice from Michelle Bachman.

probably not, though i'm not positive she'd do any worse
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#613 User is offline   Winstonm 

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Posted 2011-August-10, 17:59

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I am virtually certain that Summers, Rubin and Greenspan are smarter than I am


You are way overstating the case for Greenspan and way understating your own.

Regardless of the smarts, the one thing I think this trio clearly shows is that now matter how intelligent you are, when you start allowing dogma rather than data to be the basis for your decisions, bad decisions are bound to occur.
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#614 User is offline   kenberg 

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Posted 2011-August-10, 18:16

 Winstonm, on 2011-August-10, 17:59, said:

You are way overstating the case for Greenspan and way understating your own.

No, no false modesty was intended. These guys are smart, very smart. I am not claiming I am dumb.

A career in mathematics does many things for a person. One of them is that you meet people who are just plain smarter than you (generic you) are, and there is no doubt about it.

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Regardless of the smarts, the one thing I think this trio clearly shows is that now matter how intelligent you are, when you start allowing dogma rather than data to be the basis for your decisions, bad decisions are bound to occur.


Yes, but I would say it a little differently. Most of the very smart people that I have met still keep a grasp on the fact they are mere mortals. But there are exceptions.


I have heard it said of Mao Zedong that he had so often been right about so many things that eventually he was incapable of considering the possibility that he might be wrong. Being wrong can be a very useful experience.
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#615 User is offline   PassedOut 

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Posted 2011-August-10, 19:13

 kenberg, on 2011-August-10, 18:16, said:

Being wrong can be a very useful experience.

I've had a great number of such useful experiences.
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#616 User is offline   luke warm 

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Posted 2011-August-11, 06:06

i didn't read back, so sorry if you've discussed this... did anyone watch 'inside job'? it's a documentary of the banking crisis, i found it very interesting... all of the principle players in that debacle are still running the show
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#617 User is offline   kenberg 

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Posted 2011-August-11, 06:47

No. I think I may have heard about "Inside Job" but I know nothing about it. I did see HBO's "Too Big to Fail". "Sort of interesting" would be my review of that one. A real documentary would have more to offer, I think.

A satisfying explanation is apt to be difficult. There was greed. Well, yeah. Deploring greed is like deploring the male interest in large female breasts. You can deplore in all you want but when you are done deploring it, it will still be there.

My starting point, as it usually is, is my own experience. As it happens, I moved about five years ago. We sold out house at an inflated price and we bought a house at an inflated price, basically a wash. But I made it clear to the realtor that was handling our sale that I wanted it sold. It did not have to be the best possible price, it had to be a reasonable price. My thinking was that the prices were highly inflated and I wanted to complete everything before they crashed. I have virtually no interest in real estate. If this was obvious to me, why was it not obvious to everyone? It was common knowledge that home loans were being given out with very little regard for good practice. I was not aware of all this bundling stuff, but when people with casual work history are getting loans with little or no down payment it does not take a financial genius to realize that this will not end well.

Savvy people will find ways to rip off the system. Really? Alert the media, who would have thought!
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#618 User is offline   phil_20686 

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Posted 2011-August-11, 08:27

I have always felt that one thing the financial wizards forgot, was that risk is always conserved.

No matter how you chop up and change outcomes when you build a complex derivative, in essence, all the possible outcomes of the fundamental asset (in this case the mortgages) are represented. So the question people should have been asking when buying derivatives is, who is holding the risk for the unlikely outcomes?

This is a nice kind of rule, as it makes it clear that when you have a market in risky assets, someone in the market is bearing that risk. The complex instruments in mortgages obscured this basic fact, and the result was that everyone thought someone else (or noone) was bearing the risk.
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#619 User is offline   hrothgar 

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Posted 2011-August-11, 08:38

 phil_20686, on 2011-August-11, 08:27, said:

I have always felt that one thing the financial wizards forgot, was that risk is always conserved.

No matter how you chop up and change outcomes when you build a complex derivative, in essence, all the possible outcomes of the fundamental asset (in this case the mortgages) are represented. So the question people should have been asking when buying derivatives is, who is holding the risk for the unlikely outcomes?

This is a nice kind of rule, as it makes it clear that when you have a market in risky assets, someone in the market is bearing that risk. The complex instruments in mortgages obscured this basic fact, and the result was that everyone thought someone else (or noone) was bearing the risk.


A couple years back, I had a fairly interesting discussion on this topic with Andrew Lo.

Phil is perfectly correct that risk is conserved. However, asset prices are not.

Different people have different risk preferences.

Suppose that you have a set of derivatives.
You slice and dice the assets and repackage these into some new set of derivatives.
It's entirely possible that the market value of the first set of derivatives doesn't equal the value of the second.

I was arguing that it was useful to track the magnitude of this spread.
A small spread can be justified by asymmetries in risk preferences.
A large spread suggests that something fishy is going on...
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#620 User is offline   hrothgar 

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Posted 2011-August-11, 08:46

 phil_20686, on 2011-August-11, 08:27, said:

This is a nice kind of rule, as it makes it clear that when you have a market in risky assets, someone in the market is bearing that risk. The complex instruments in mortgages obscured this basic fact, and the result was that everyone thought someone else (or noone) was bearing the risk.


The fundamental problem was that the covariance matrices were wrong
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