[eagles123]

Matchpoints

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partner is quite agressive but wont have junk at these colours

thanks

Eagles

[MrAce]

3♥

I play new suit by preemptor as fit+shortness. If he bids 4♣ I may hit the jackpot. (but I doubt this is the case in this auction due to their silence) But I think you are asking whether 3 or 4 ♥ is better to avoid 4♠ maybe? I still bid 3♥ if so. It's not like we lack values in defense, especially if pd is short in hearts.

EDIT: For some reason I saw my hearts 6 cards, not 7.

[steve2005]

What a decision? Partner can have a great pre-empt with even 2♥ and there will be no play for 4♥ on a ♣ lead.

[MrAce]

steve2005, on 2015-June-02, 11:54, said:

What a decision? Partner can have a great pre-empt with even 2♥ and there will be no play for 4♥ on a ♣ lead.

I gather from this answer that you are passing?

[mike777]

3h


not sure what I will do next.


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edit oh mP I will try pass of 3d

[ggwhiz]

If I bid 3♥ it's forcing and I will often get a raise on 2 but am more likely to get to hear something that lands us in 4♦/♥ having leaked enough info for the opps to hammer us or at least find their best lead.

Smooth pass and pray is our odds on chance of a plus. A direct 4♥ is a large gamble but better than 3♥.

[eagles123]

if you bid 3H partner bids 4D

[kuhchung]

whoa, i bash 4H

Am I no longer a giant underbidder gwnn? Or maybe I just have terrible judgment.

[jdonn]

Could be right to pass, but I can't imagine not at least taking a chance on 4♥, so I will start with 3♥.

[alok c]

4h

[mikeh]

This is mps, not imps. We bid hearts only if we think that on balance 4♥ will play at least one trick better than 3♦. We can't get to 3♥ and we aren't bidding slam no matter what he bids over 3♥, so this is a simple proposition, even tho the answer isn't clear.

To me, this is a pass since I think it less than 50% that we can take at least one more trick in hearts than in diamonds.

At imps or total points, I'd bid.

[Cyberyeti]

mikeh, on 2015-June-02, 14:22, said:

This is mps, not imps. We bid hearts only if we think that on balance 4♥ will play at least one trick better than 3♦. We can't get to 3♥ and we aren't bidding slam no matter what he bids over 3♥, so this is a simple proposition, even tho the answer isn't clear.

To me, this is a pass since I think it less than 50% that we can take at least one more trick in hearts than in diamonds.

At imps or total points, I'd bid.

This is not quite the right calculation, if hearts play for 10 tricks we want to be in hearts even if diamonds play for 10 or 11.

In fantasy land I think partner can bid 5♣ over 3♥ with a 3370, then I'll bid a slam.

My inclination however is to do the same as you and pass at MP but bid at any other format.

[PhilG007]

eagles123, on 2015-June-02, 11:33, said:

Matchpoints

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partner is quite agressive but wont have junk at these colours

thanks

Eagles

If partner is following the rule of 2 and 3 his pre-emept should be showing 7 playing tricks. You have
4 quick tricks with the two AKs so you are justified in raising to 5♦ It must be remembered that
when a player pre-empts,he is saying loudly and clearly that he is interested in one suit only...the one he pre-empted in...so bidding 3♥is just a waste of time....partner is more than likely to have a singleton
in the suit. Bidding 5♦ will also make it almost impossible for the other opponent to enter the auction...even
if he holds a rock crusher...which is very likely given the bidding so far(!)

[Cyberyeti]

PhilG007, on 2015-June-02, 23:26, said:

If partner is following the rule of 2 and 3 his pre-emept should be showing 7 playing tricks. You have
4 quick tricks with the two AKs so you are justified in raising to 5♦ It must be remembered that
when a player pre-empts,he is saying loudly and clearly that he is interested in one suit only...the one he pre-empted in...so bidding 3♥is just a waste of time....partner is more than likely to have a singleton
in the suit. Bidding 5♦ will also make it almost impossible for the other opponent to enter the auction...even
if he holds a rock crusher...which is very likely given the bidding so far(!)

This is terrible analysis.

No reason to expect a rock crusher on your left, you have 14, partner may well have around 7, could easily be 10/9 in the other two hands.

5♦ could easily be losing 3 clubs and a diamond although is unlikely to be doubled, if it is it will be bad.

Are you saying partner won't open AKxxxxx or KQJ10xxx and out ? I think everybody opens this even at this vul.

Also how many tricks you make is almost completely dependent on how many clubs partner has, xx, xxx, KQJ10xxx, x makes 11 in either red suit (10 in ♦ if they find a heart ruff), xx, x, KQJ10xxx, xxx makes only 9 in diamonds, 8 in hearts.

[helene_t]

3h and now pass 4d. At imps I would bid 4h

[Trump Echo]

I'd expect my regular partner to either have solid Diamonds to the Ace or solid Diamonds to the King with an Ace in a side suit which would have to be Clubs. I'd bid 3 Hearts forcing. My regular partner would either raise, show a feature with a Clubs call, or retreat to his suit. If he raises Hearts I pass, if he does anything else, I bid 5 Diamonds.

[jodepp]

At IMPs this is a clear 3♥ bid. At matchpoints it's a little bit closer but I think it's masterminding to Pass; there's no reason partner can't have:

xx
xxx
KQxxxxx
x

Thus I would bid 3♥ at matchpoints as well. When I see partner's 4♦ I bid game in diamonds. I concede that 5♦ feels very 'iffy' but there's just too many hands that partner can have that give 5♦ a good play.

[KurtGodel]

PhilG007, on 2015-June-02, 23:26, said:

If partner is following the rule of 2 and 3 his pre-emept should be showing 7 playing tricks. You have
4 quick tricks with the two AKs so you are justified in raising to 5♦ It must be remembered that
when a player pre-empts,he is saying loudly and clearly that he is interested in one suit only...the one he pre-empted in...so bidding 3♥is just a waste of time....partner is more than likely to have a singleton
in the suit. Bidding 5♦ will also make it almost impossible for the other opponent to enter the auction...even
if he holds a rock crusher...which is very likely given the bidding so far(!)

I think we'd all like to know what you are smoking and how much it costs - because it must be really really good for you to come out with this nonsense.

Your argument that partner is providing 7 playing tricks doesn't really make sense, because what might be a lot of tricks in one strain may not be very many in another. Hands fit to a lesser or greater degree, you can't just say: he's got this many tricks, I've got this many tricks; so let's add them together and see where we get! For 5♦ to make is requiring quite a lot. Give partner xxx x AQJTxxx Qx (this is a very good hand!) and game will only make when ♦Kx is onside. There are a whole bunch of reasonable 3♦ openers that give you poor play: QJx x AJT9xxx Kx, xx xx KQTxxxx Kx, x Qx AKxxxxx xxx et cetera...for game to make you need only two losers in clubs and trumps. That's asking for a one loser trump suit and a club stiff/ace. To me, a one loser trump suit and the ♣A is a one level opening, so you are banking on your partner having a one loser trump suit (not set in stone), and a club singleton. Once you've given yourself a club singleton, 4♥ is basically made, partner has 2+ trumps pretty much always, so you can score 6.5 natural trump tricks, 2 spades, a ruff and either a diamond trick, a 3rd spade trick or a 2nd ruff. So pretty much any hand where you make 5♦, you can make 4♥.
Your second point about pre-empting the opponents is from planet Mars. You said it yourself: we have 4 quick tricks, and you think partner has a singleton heart! So it looks like we have several cashing tricks, before we even get started with the possibility of getting diamond ruffs! I don't know what rock crusher they can have apart from a huge single suiter in clubs, how can you have a rock crusher with no honours in the major suits, and missing at least a couple diamond honours too? What do you think rock crusher means? This isn't a pre-emptive auction, this is our hand.

I think I would probably bid 3♥, hopefully if they have a doubleton trump we will have some game prospects (trump behaving, club shortage, diamond ace), and if they rebid 4♦ hopefully we have a chance to make that too. I think pass is close behind. 4♥ can't be an option because it has all the disadvantages of 3♥, with very few gains (concealment of information is one thing, but if dummy has a void/single trump the person will be able to double with QJTx(x) of trumps anyway).

[yunling]

I'm feeling that passing is probably the winning choice.
If I'm bidding something, it will be 3♥.
But when partner don't have a fit, which I think will happen roughly 80% of the time, even 4♦ will go down quite often which makes 3♥ unattractive.

[ArtK78]

Far be it for me to defend Phil, but he specifically states that "if partner is following the rule of 2 and 3" meaning at this vulnerability the opening 3♦ bid shows 7 playing tricks in diamonds. So, there is something to be said for bidding 5♦, but it assumes that you have no duplication of values. Many hands that will make 11 tricks in diamonds will make 10 tricks in hearts. There are certainly some that produce 11 tricks in diamonds but do not produce 10 tricks in hearts, but I am not going to expend what few brain cells I have left in constructing them. I would guess that all of them have one or no hearts in the diamond bidder's hand.

The rest of his post - about 4th hand having a rock crusher - is pure gibberish given your hand. I suppose one could construct a hand where the opps can make 10 or 11 tricks in a black suit, but it is EXTREMELY unlikely.