[bd71]

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No relevant agreements or gadgets.

What is your call?

If you X, what do you bid over responses of 4D or 4H?

[wank]

 bd71, on 2012-February-08, 23:58, said:

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What is your call?

If you X, what do you bid over responses of 4D or 4H?

3nt

pass 4♥
over 4♦ pass and hope to escape for a multiple of 50

[cloa513]

 bd71, on 2012-February-08, 23:58, said:

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No relevant agreements or gadgets.

What is your call?

If you X, what do you bid over responses of 4D or 4H?

Its not that strong- 3NT- lack of aces.

[mich-b]

Seems like a routine 3NT.

[Fluffy]

I would bid 3NT but wonder how often this would make on a simulation, I suspect something between 45 and 65%

[whereagles]

Another easy 3NT

[Zelandakh]

 wank, on 2012-February-09, 00:40, said:

3nt

pass 4♥
over 4♦ pass and hope to escape for a multiple of 50

I take it that you play natural responses over the 3NT overcall then? Does everyone else do that?

[phil_20686]

 Zelandakh, on 2012-February-09, 05:55, said:

I take it that you play natural responses over the 3NT overcall then? Does everyone else do that?

 bd71, on 2012-February-08, 23:58, said:

What is your call?

If you X, what do you bid over responses of 4D or 4H?

 wank, on 2012-February-09, 00:40, said:

3nt

pass 4♥
over 4♦ pass and hope to escape for a multiple of 50

I dont think he plays natural responses, and imagine he was just answering the OPs two questions.

Sign me up for 3N too.

[Zelandakh]

 phil_20686, on 2012-February-09, 07:39, said:

I dont think he plays natural responses, and imagine he was just answering the OPs two questions.

Ah, thanks for that Phil. I think I must have blocked out any mention of doubling when I read the OP!

[ArtK78]

Seems like a routine 3NT. The alternative of 4♣ does not appeal to me.

[mikeh]

This is everyone's 3N.

And everyone sees the flaws, but the alternatives are worse.

[pooltuna]

Hamman eggs in one basket

[HighLow21]

The problem with 3NT is that you have no hold-up power in spades. In theory, if you lose an early trick you could go down 4 and be doubled in the process. KQ is a poor stopper because you may be forced to win the first trick and the suit is now wide open on many layouts. KQx would be infinitely better. KQ is fine for a stopper NT unless you now for a fact that that suit will be led at trick 1.

Plus you are missing 3 aces. If partner is broke you will get doubled and be minus many--and it's not unlikely that partner has little. You have a bad 18 points, and the opener in theory has 5-10; this leaves only 12-17 points to divvy up between partner and LHO, and if partner doesn't have the majority of those points you are a definite underdog in 3NT.

The queen of clubs with partner would be wonderful, but if he doesn't have it you may be stuck immediately after trick 3. And even if he does you might not be able to take 9 tricks before they run spades. Many, many spades.

Give East something like: ♠xx ♥AJxx ♦QJxx ♣Qxx. This is not an unlikely holding on the auction. Now try to avoid a massive penalty in 3NT!

I'd bid 4♣ and be content to make it or go down a small amount if partner is broke. It's not likely to get doubled, and if partner has some values he might take you to 5♣. Yes, you might suffer a 2nd round spade ruff in a ♣ contract, but that's only one blown trick, not 5.

Keep in mind also that your bid might push them to 4♠ which might make. I don't like this hand one bit.

[HighLow21]

By the way, I agree with comments above that 3NT will make about half the time. The problem is that when it doesn't make, the opponents will be able to diagnose it far too often for my own comfort; they will double, and I will be anywhere from -500 to -1400 way too much of the time.

So at MP I might try 3NT, but at IMPs, the probability of failure combined with the expected cost of failure is too much for me. I'm gambling a telephone number in the hopes of picking up 400. Bad.

A related question: if you DO go 3NT and LHO doubles, passed back to you, what now? Bid 4♣? The problem with this logic is that it will be obvious that you're escaping and the opponents have exchanged too much information. They will be better positioned to bid 4♠ when that's right, double when that's right, etc.

[mikeh]

 HighLow21, on 2012-February-09, 11:00, said:

The problem with 3NT is that you have no hold-up power in spades. In theory, if you lose an early trick you could go down 4 and be doubled in the process. KQ is a poor stopper because you may be forced to win the first trick and the suit is now wide open on many layouts. KQx would be infinitely better. KQ is fine for a stopper NT unless you now for a fact that that suit will be led at trick 1.

Plus you are missing 3 aces. If partner is broke you will get doubled and be minus many--and it's not unlikely that partner has little. You have a bad 18 points, and the opener in theory has 5-10; this leaves only 12-17 points to divvy up between partner and LHO, and if partner doesn't have the majority of those points you are a definite underdog in 3NT.

The queen of clubs with partner would be wonderful, but if he doesn't have it you may be stuck immediately after trick 3. And even if he does you might not be able to take 9 tricks before they run spades. Many, many spades.

Give East something like: ♠xx ♥AJxx ♦QJxx ♣Qxx. This is not an unlikely holding on the auction. Now try to avoid a massive penalty in 3NT!

I'd bid 4♣ and be content to make it or go down a small amount if partner is broke. It's not likely to get doubled, and if partner has some values he might take you to 5♣. Yes, you might suffer a 2nd round spade ruff in a ♣ contract, but that's only one blown trick, not 5.

Keep in mind also that your bid might push them to 4♠ which might make. I don't like this hand one bit.

Every 3N bidder understands that KQ tight is a poor holding for the reasons you gave. Every 3N bidder knows the risks.

I very much doubt that any 3N bidder would sit for a penalty double. It doesn't take brilliance to understand that the doubler probably has either at least 2 spades and some Aces or a boatload of defence......and I expect every single 3N bidder would bid 4♣, which gets us back to where you were.

So: if 3N makes, you miss it.
if 3N is doubled, we run to 4♣.....if we get hammered there, then the odds are pretty good that you were getting hammered after your direct overcall.

When I wrote that this hand is 'everyone's 3N', I was guilty of an overbid, but I stand by the spirit of the comment. In a high level swiss/round-robin event, I would expect virtually everyone to bid 3N...it is that routine. Someone has to bid game, 3N is the most probable game, and if 4♥ is better, partner is at leasrt as likely to bid it over 3N than 4♣.

I haven't commented on NLM (non-leaping michaels), which seems to be more common on the forums than in real life, but for those who play NLM, 4♣ shows hearts and clubs, so 4♣ doesn't exist here anyway. But, I repeat...my choice of 3N is not dependent in any way on that...I don't play and wouldn't ever assume for a problem that the OP plays NLM here unless expressly stated.

[Phil]

 HighLow21, on 2012-February-09, 11:00, said:

The problem with 3NT is that you have no hold-up power in spades.

If partner has three spades, we do not need this. Also, here's a lead problem for you. You hold: AJTxxxx xxx x xx when your RHO bids 3N over your 3♠ opening. Is it automatic to lead a spade? Hardly.

By the way, the shorter partner's spades are, the more likely our clubs are running.

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In theory, if you lose an early trick you could go down 4 and be doubled in the process.

Who is doubling me? The hand that couldn't take a call over 3♠ or the hand that preempted? Did I tip my hand during the bidding?

Quote

Plus you are missing 3 aces. If partner is broke you will get doubled and be minus many--and it's not unlikely that partner has little. You have a bad 18 points, and the opener in theory has 5-10; this leaves only 12-17 points to divvy up between partner and LHO, and if partner doesn't have the majority of those points you are a definite underdog in 3NT.

You are definitely overthinking this but do you really think LHO really has a 10 count with his (presumed) AJTxxxx? I'd say LHO has 5-7, leaving 15-17 between pard and RHO. Now partner didn't double 3♠, and RHO didn't boost, so the split is going to be between 12-3/5 or 3/5-12 I think. When clubs are running and partner happens to have three spades, we need practically nothing to make 3N.

Quote

Give East something like: ♠xx ♥AJxx ♦QJxx ♣Qxx. This is not an unlikely holding on the auction. Now try to avoid a massive penalty in 3NT!

LOL who doubles 3N on this hand? Even then, partner has the ♦A, I will take the club finesse (marked with the double) and soon be down writing +750.

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I'd bid 4♣ and be content to make it or go down a small amount if partner is broke. It's not likely to get doubled, and if partner has some values he might take you to 5♣. Yes, you might suffer a 2nd round spade ruff in a ♣ contract, but that's only one blown trick, not 5.

4♣ is such a nothing bid. The spectrum of hands that makes 5♣ and doesn't make 3N is very small. If someone made me choose a non-3N call, I would rather pass.

Quote

Keep in mind also that your bid might push them to 4♠ which might make. I don't like this hand one bit.

Balancing your opponents into game is not a realistic scenario.

[mikeh]

HiLow


I mean no disrespect to you from what follows.

You write articulately, but it is apparent from your views that you are a little out of step with expert approaches to these sorts of decisions. Experts almost universally strive to bid game whenever it seems plausible to do so.....especially when, as here, the alternatives are really unattractive.

Experts also generally see the glass as half full in these situations....I speak as a life-long glass half-empty player who has to force himself to ignore this tendency in my own game.

Not bidding 3N is giving in to your fears rather than playing optimistically.

Check out the players who reach the finals and semi-finals of major events....they're almost all optimists. In short, it's a bidder's game.

[mikeh]

 Phil, on 2012-February-09, 11:36, said:

If partner has three spades, we do not need this. Also, here's a lead problem for you. You hold: AJTxxxx xxx x xx when your RHO bids 3N over your 3♠ opening. Is it automatic to lead a spade? Hardly.

By the way, the shorter partner's spades are, the more likely our clubs are running.



Who is doubling me? The hand that couldn't take a call over 3♠ or the hand that preempted? Did I tip my hand during the bidding?



You are definitely overthinking this but do you really think LHO really has a 10 count with his (presumed) AJTxxxx? I'd say LHO has 5-7, leaving 15-17 between pard and RHO. Now partner didn't double 3♠, and RHO didn't boost, so the split is going to be between 12-3/5 or 3/5-12 I think. When clubs are running and partner happens to have three spades, we need practically nothing to make 3N.



LOL who doubles 3N on this hand? Even then, partner has the ♦A, I will take the club finesse (marked with the double) and soon be down writing +750.



4♣ is such a nothing bid. The spectrum of hands that makes 5♣ and doesn't make 3N is very small. If someone made me choose a non-3N call, I would rather pass.



Balancing your opponents into game is not a realistic scenario.

Phil, you are in direct seat

[akhare]

Joining the 3N chorus..

[Phil]

Oops.

I still bid 3N. Not as joyously I suppose.