BBO Discussion Forums: Puppet Stayman - BBO Discussion Forums

phil_20686, on 2012-April-01, 17:00, said:

It's not ideal, but you can play that 4♥ is now a slam try, if 4♥ the round before would have been 4-4 majors with no slam interest. You have no room below 4♥ obviously, but it's better than making your intentions clear with 5♥!

(This is what I play but I have no idea whether anyone else plays it or has considered it, so I apologise if I have missed something and the above is ridiculous).

phil_20686, on 2012-April-01, 17:00, said:

In most versions of Puppet this 3♥ rebid denies 4 hearts so there is no need to make a slam try in hearts now. A simple solution is to play that 4♣ over 3♦ is a slam try with both majors. With a hand that wants to make a slam try in clubs you start with 3♥ and then bid 4♣ next time around. You lose this as a cue bid for spades of course. Over 4♣ there are several possibilities, to name but one example: 4M as natural declining the slam try, 4♦ as accepting the slam try and either agreeing spades or with a double fit, and 4NT (and up) as key card responses accepting the slam try and agreeing hearts. Over the 4♦, 4♥ asks and then 4♠ agrees spades and 4NT (and up) are 6 key card responses with the double fit.

If you play a version of Puppet where 3♦ does not promise a 4 card major then you obviously need follow-ups to cater to this. In that case it is probably best to use 4♦ as a general no fit flag, something like 4♦ = no 4 card major, 4M = fit + decline slam try, 4NT = spades and accept slam try, 5♣ (and up) = key cards with hearts and accepting the slam try.

To make slam tries in the 4-4 fit when Responder does not hold both majors is not a problem at all in Puppet. For spades: 2NT - 3♣ - 3♦ - 3♥ - 3♠ - 4♥ is surely unambiguously a slam try, while for hearts Opener can preemptively signal readiness over 3♠ (= hearts) by bidding 4♣, while a simple 4♥ would be a decline of the (imaginary) slam try.

In this thread, Rainer Herrmann asked, Minors over 2NT: Do you have good agreements?

If you still haven’t been convinced to dump Puppet Stayman, the post below has been copied in from the above thread.

Minors Over 2NT: Do you have good agreements?

Rainer Herrmann:
This thread of yours appears to have stumped the panel of posters. I have no idea if this has happened before. A handful of people have offered a bidding sequence for the actual hand posted. Thus far, no one has offered a TOTAL GOOD AGREEMENT as suggested in the thread title.

My own bidding agreements over 2NT have a much greater focus on the majors. I’m guessing that other regular posters are guilty of the same error as myself. You have opened up a hole in my bidding structures which I am diligently working on to plug.

What are my objectives over 2NT? I still want to be able to retain as many as possible of the following:
1. Stayman / Garbage Stayman / Crawling Stayman
2. Jacoby Transfer Bids
3. Smolen (both 5/4 and 6/4 holdings)
4. Minor Suit Stayman / 4-Way transfer bids. As I cannot have both, once I have managed to plug the hole in my bidding agreements, it will become evident which one gets dumped.
5. The ability to show 5/5 in the minors with no slam interest
6. The ability to show 5/5 in the minors with slam interest
7. The ability to sign off in 4 of a minor with a minor suit bust
8. The ability to transfer into a minor suit single suiter and then continue with slam exploration with the appropriate hand
9. Texas / SA Texas in my current agreements will need to go to make room for 5-8 above. This will be accommodated via Jacoby Transfer Bids followed by a raise to game. I still need to decide exactly what I will use the 4♣ and 4♦ bids for now.
10. Gerber has long ago been dumped in favour of a quantitative 4NT

I am already facing some creative thinking to restructure my current agreements to accommodate all of the above. I am now asking this for the third time; how do you also include Puppet Stayman in amongst a very scarce resource i.e. available bidding space? To complicate this jigsaw puzzle even further; I need to be able to cope with opposition interference.

To keep on insisting retaining Puppet Stayman on a 0.08% probability of opener holding such a hand seems even more ludicrous when the probability of responder holding a minor suit orientated hand is considerably higher. A full two levels of bidding space has been consumed before the partnership can even begin exploring for the best spot.

Here are some more probabilities coming from BBO’s deal generator:
0/3 ♠
0/1 ♥
0/13 ♦
0/13 ♣
0-20 HCP = 3.24% X 2 = 6.48% (to include the other major as well)

0/2 ♠
0/2 ♥
0/13 ♦
0/13 ♣
0-20 HCP = 5.09%

That is a total probability of 11.57% of responder being dealt a minor suit orientated hand opposite a 0.08% probability of opener being dealt a 20-21 HCP hand containing a 5-card major.

Go figure!

The probability of being dealt an opening hand of 20-21 HCP is 0.6%. So it would actually seem that in 13% of those cases opener has a 5-card major. Now you go figure

Statto, on 2012-April-22, 00:56, said:

If you’re unhappy with the numbers I am quoting, effectively you’re questioning the integrity of the numbers being spat out by BBO’s deal generator.

Normal Stayman makes no sense when you can be playing half puppet at almost no cost:

3♦: no four card major
3♥: 4/5♥s, can be 4-4 in the majors
3♠: 4♠s, denies 4♥s
3NT: 5♠s

The question then is how much complexity to add to finding either five card major?

along similar lines to half-puppet is modified baron from Precision bidding in Acol by Eric Crowhurst
3♦= denies 5♠ and 4 or 5 ♥
3♥= 4 ♥ may have 4♠
3♠= 5 ♠
3NT = 5♥
and 2NT-3♣-3♦-3♥ shows 5♥ and 4♠ as dont need bid to show 4♥ because opener has denies 4♥
A 4♣/4♦ followup by responder is usually looking for a minor suit fit

32519, on 2012-April-22, 02:02, said:

LOL, according to your interpretation of your own numbers, the probability of responder having a minor suit hand (11.57%) is 144 times as likely as a 2NT opener having a 5 card major (.08%). That should have raised a red flag to you that you weren't comparing apples to apples. We're not questioning BBO's deal generator. We're questioning whether you know how to use it, and it's clear you don't know how to interpret the numbers.

32519, on 2012-April-22, 02:02, said:

johnu has posted so I don't have to. My numbers seem about right based on your numbers. I don't think you are interpreting the numbers correctly.

steve2005, on 2012-April-22, 10:03, said:

aguahombre, on 2012-March-24, 09:35, said:

Mike's method is a slight improvement on Crowhurst's
- including 5 ♠ in the 3♣ reply and
- defining the 3♠ rebid as only 4 ♠
It is similar to a recent suggestion in Bridge World.

32519, on 2012-April-22, 00:40, said:

I did offer a "total agreement" - whether it is good or not is another matter of course.

32519, on 2012-April-22, 00:40, said:

As long as you think it's important (i) to have some form of crawling/garbage Stayman in response to 2NT and (ii) to have some way of signing off in 4m in response to 2NT, no-one is going to.
I have not yet ever seen a hand where I want to run from partner's 2NT opening to play in 4m, and I doubt I ever will.

FrancesHinden, on 2012-April-23, 11:44, said:

Yes, I think it's very important to be able to run from 2NT Too many 2NT contracts are going down.

Now what do you think is a contributing factor to this statistic? Answer: Not enough partnerships have an escape mechanism when responder is holding a bust opposite a 20-21 HCP balanced hand.

Here is another question to consider: Why don’t enough partnerships have an escape mechanism when responder is holding a bust opposite a 20-21 HCP balanced hand? Answer: Their partnership bidding agreement doesn’t have any room left for an escape mechanism.

Which leads me to my final question: Why doesn’t their partnership bidding agreement have any room left for an escape mechanism? Answer: All the available bidding room left has been consumed by a convention called Puppet Stayman, a 5332 holding with 20-21 HCP which has such a low probability of occurring, the bidding space consumed by PS can be much better utilised for something else such as Garbage Stayman / Crawling Stayman / signing off in 4m when responder has a long minor suit bust.

I absolutely refuse to accept that top flight players don’t have an escape mechanism with a bust hand opposite a 2NT balanced hand. OK for the average club/tournament player. Not OK for a top flight player!

The reason that too many 2NT contracts are going down is that the auction on many of them is 2NT all pass, and declarer is playing a 20 count opposite a 1 count. Anytime all of the strength of the partnership is concentrated in one hand the trick taking potential goes down.

If 2NT is making, odds are that responder doesn't pass - he has enough to bid game in something.

My regular partner and I play 4 suit transfers and Puppet over 2NT, so we can get out in 4 of a minor if we want to. But it has never happened, and I doubt that it will.

Garbage Stayman over 2NT openings? The name says it all.

By the way, no "top flight" player is going to create methods to cater to the one hand in a thousand where it is right to bid Stayman over partner's 2NT opening and then ask partner to choose to play in 3♥ or 3♠ after a 3♦ response.

32519, on 2012-April-23, 13:19, said:

And how often does crawling stayman helps you stop in 2♥ or 2♠ after an 2nt opening?

Any argument that depends solely on percentages is flawed. You could play that a 7NT opener shows any hand with a ten in it, it's going to come up a lot (60% I would guess), it doesn't make it a god of a convention though. Expect to lose about 16 imps on average every time it comes up.

A little more on topic, you speak of percentages, but you haven't seemed to realise that common sense should tell you your numbers are wrong. For the sake of simplicity (and bias towards you!) that a 2NT opener shows 22 HCP balanced. That means the average of the other 3 hands is 6 HCP. Now consider you will really need at least 5-4 for crawling stayman (let's face it, people routinely open 2245s and such 2NT), what looks more likely? 0-3 HCP or 4-10?

edit: it's rather hard to find references for garbage stayman over 2NT. I found one on the vugraph archives. Stansby/Martel good enough pair for you? http://www.bridgearc...=14564&b=59&r=c
Also in the commentary

Quote

32519, on 2012-April-23, 13:19, said:

For 10 years, I played an 18-20 2N, with few problems. It was rarely doubled and often gained when it pre-empted opponents out of a part-score. On a couple of occasions, it went several down but was a reasonable sacrifice against aopponents' slam.

My partners and I are ordinary Puppet Stayman players, but we have the mechanism to subside in four of a minor. (2N - 3♠ and 2N - 4♣ are transfers). In practice over the last twenty years or so, we've never elected to alight on either sixpence but an appropriate opportunity may arise in the future.
Sometimes, we've passed a three-level transfer e.g. 2N - 3♥ - 3♠ and on a few of those occasions we've then made exactly nine tricks

On how many of those 2nt contracts that go down did responder have a six-card minor, and have 4m making? I'd guess not very many. Besides, a lot of us are bidding 3NT with our six-card minors (which may or may not make, but has a much better plus score when it does make than 4m which is also normally iffy).

The problem with 2NT is that when responder has a total bust it's already too high. Unless you can convince your opponents to let you play two of a suit, having extra ways to sign off will not help you much.

The good thing about 2NT is that it's extremely descriptive and you usually have game when you open it. Yes, when the auction goes 2NT-all pass you will often go down. However this auction is very rare. You are way to concerned about something that happens on very few boards... but if it's really that big a deal to you, the solution is to play a strong club plus Kokish relay, so that you can rebid 1NT on almost any range (i.e. 1♦...1NT=12-14, 1NT open=15-17, 1♣...1NT=18-20, 1♣...1♥...1NT=21-23).

32519, on 2012-April-23, 13:19, said:

If you believe this, put your 20-21 into Kokish and you can get out in two of a major or three of a minor. Over this you can also play 3♣ Baron to get your hoped-for "Garbage Stayman".

It might be good if you realised, though, that some of the "top-flight players" you refer to are actually posting in these forums, and in this and your other threads, and they don't share your concerns. This should tell you something.

Statto, on 2012-April-22, 00:56, said:

Statto, on 2012-April-22, 19:44, said:

The probability of being dealt a 20-21 HCP hand, ANY DISTRIBUTION, is a miserly 1.02%. Once you start adding constraints such as a 5-card major, the numbers fall away hopelessly. So I stick to my 0.08% probability of opener being dealt a 5332 hand.

Bidding space is a very scarce, and to be highly treasured, resource. To WASTE a scarce resource on a hand pattern with such a low probability of occurrence has just got to be one of the dumbest things to do!